New Englanders could be forgiven for wondering if the calendar had flipped back to July over the first week of October 2025. As the weekend rolled on, much of the region basked in unseasonably warm, summer-like temperatures, with highs soaring into the low and mid-80s across inland areas. According to The Boston Globe, even coastal locations such as Logan Airport, typically moderated by a sea breeze, saw readings in the lower 70s, occasionally dipping into the 60s. For those away from the shore, it was a rare October treat—a taste of summer that had many reaching for short sleeves and sunglasses.
This warming trend was no fleeting anomaly. Meteorologists forecasted that Monday, October 6, and Tuesday, October 7, would bring the warmest back-to-back days of the entire year for much of New England. Many locations were expected to reach or exceed 80 degrees, with some spots climbing into the mid-80s. The record high for Boston on Monday stood at 86 degrees, and while Tuesday’s record (a sweltering 90) seemed out of reach, the city was still on track for near-record warmth. As NBC Boston reported, the full sun, warm afternoons, and overnight lows in the 50s—unusually mild for October—meant that even the nights felt more like late summer than early fall.
But as any lifelong New Englander knows, the region’s weather can turn on a dime. The forecast called for a dramatic change beginning late Tuesday. A strong cold front was barreling toward the region, set to bring widespread showers, downpours, and even the possibility of a rumble of thunder. The Boston Globe warned that the Wednesday morning commute would likely be a soggy one, with rain continuing through at least the first part of the day. Rainfall totals could reach up to an inch in some spots—a welcome development for drought-parched landscapes, even if it meant trading sunglasses for umbrellas.
Wednesday night promised another abrupt shift as clearing skies ushered in much cooler, more autumnal air. Temperatures were expected to tumble into the 40s by Thursday, October 9, with highs struggling to reach the low to mid-60s on Thursday and Friday. By Friday morning, some southern New England suburbs could see lows in the low 30s, potentially bringing the growing season to an end. City centers, however, would likely remain in the low 40s, offering a bit of a buffer from the chill.
This rollercoaster of temperatures and precipitation couldn’t have come at a more critical time. As NPR reported, Massachusetts and much of New England were in the grip of significant drought conditions. Severe and moderate drought persisted on Cape Cod and along Route 2 in northern Massachusetts, while the rest of the state was classified as abnormally dry. The drought followed a dry summer that itself came on the heels of a wet spring, marking back-to-back summers with below-average rainfall. Rainfall deficits since June 1 ranged from 2 to 7 inches across Massachusetts, leading to a staggering 70% reduction in stream flows and groundwater storage statewide.
Ken Mahan, lead meteorologist at The Boston Globe, explained during an interview with NPR that the situation was becoming all too familiar. "So the entire state as a whole is running what we call abnormally dry, which means that we've seen a prolonged period of precipitation reaching substantially below average. The Capes specifically are in a level of severe and moderate drought, and along Route 2 in northern Massachusetts is in a moderate drought as well, all stemming from the beginning of summer after a rather wet spring. But yes, this is becoming more common, and unfortunately, we've seen back to back and now back summers where we've seen less than average precipitation across the state."
It’s not just Massachusetts feeling the pinch. Northern New England experienced its driest summer on record in nearly 130 years, with rainfall deficits reaching a foot. The consequences have been far-reaching: water restrictions are in effect, and the risk of brush fires has increased. Even the region’s famous fall foliage wasn’t spared. According to NBC Boston, the combination of drought-stressed trees, early leaf drop, and duller colors led to a less brilliant display than in years past. "Peak fall foliage colors were diminished due to drought-stressed trees and early leaf drop in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island," the outlet noted. Gusty winds and rain midweek threatened to further shorten the already brief foliage season.
What’s driving these changes? Mahan pointed to climate change as a significant culprit. "Yeah, unfortunately, a big piece of it is climate change. When you do have a warming atmosphere and warming sea surface temperatures, then that is going to naturally change the way the atmosphere behaves. You think of the jet stream. The jet stream is the highway in which weather patterns traverse across the country. And over the last few summers, we've seen that jet stream become a little bit more to the north or diving down to the south of New England, which simply redirects storms away." In layman’s terms, the altered jet stream and a warmer atmosphere have meant that storms carrying much-needed precipitation are being rerouted, leaving New England high and dry during the critical summer months. Even when storms do arrive, they tend to be weaker, further compounding the problem.
The impact of these shifts is evident in the numbers. Data from NPR and The Boston Globe show that Massachusetts saw a rainfall deficit of up to 7 inches since June 1, draining reservoirs and shrinking streams. Northern New England’s rainfall deficit reached a full foot over the summer, a startling figure for a region accustomed to regular precipitation. The drought has also affected the timing and vibrancy of fall foliage, with leaves turning earlier and dropping sooner than usual, and the colors less vivid than in previous years.
Looking ahead, the forecast offers a glimmer of hope—but with caveats. Mahan told NPR that while the second half of fall and the beginning of winter might bring increased precipitation events, the storms are expected to be weaker than usual. A warmer than average winter is also on the horizon, with below-average snowfall likely. "Yeah, I do unfortunately see a warmer than average winter once again and then sort of a backloaded winter where snow doesn't really ramp up towards until the end of January and then tapers off pretty quickly at the beginning of March. It does look like we're in for another less than average snowfall season," he said.
So, as New Englanders savor the fleeting warmth of early October and brace for the inevitable chill to come, they do so against a backdrop of changing climate and shifting weather patterns. The region’s famous seasons remain—just a bit less predictable, and perhaps a bit more precious, than before.
