Nearly 40,000 prisoners in England and Wales have been released early under a government scheme designed to ease the mounting crisis of overcrowded prisons, according to figures published by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ). The emergency measure, introduced in September 2024, came after the prison population soared to a record high of 88,521—leaving the system teetering on the brink of collapse and officials warning that male prisons would reach zero capacity by November 2025.
By the end of June 2025, 38,042 inmates had been freed early as part of the scheme, which allows eligible prisoners to be released after serving just 40% of their fixed-term sentences, a marked reduction from the previous 50% requirement. The urgency of the situation was underscored by then-Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who stated, “In short if we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system. And a total breakdown of law and order,” according to BBC reporting.
The scale of releases is unprecedented. Of those freed early, 10,879 inmates (28.6%) were serving sentences of six months or less, and a further 5,241 (13.8%) were serving sentences between six and 12 months. The age group most affected was 30 to 39-year-olds, accounting for 37.6% of the total, followed by 40 to 49-year-olds at 23.4%. The MoJ data also reveals that 34,322 of the released were British nationals, 3,644 were foreign nationals, and 66 had no nationality recorded.
Some prisons have seen especially high numbers of early releases. HMP Humber in Brough led the list with 1,126 inmates freed, followed by Berwyn in Wrexham (1,064), Fosse Way in Leicester (1,037), and Parc B in Bridgend (830), as reported by The Independent. These numbers highlight the acute pressure on certain facilities, especially as the crisis reached its peak last year with only about 100 spaces remaining across the male prison estate.
The current scheme replaced an earlier early release process introduced by the previous Conservative government, under which 13,325 prisoners were freed between October 2023 and September 2024. The rapid increase in releases has led to what prison sources described to BBC as “more comings and goings” across the penal estate, with staff struggling to manage the high turnover.
The surge in early releases has had significant knock-on effects. The number of recalls—when offenders are returned to custody for breaching the conditions of their release—has reached what the MoJ calls “historically high” levels. Between April and June 2025, there were 11,041 recalls, up 62% from the same period in 2023 and a 13% increase on 2024 figures. Prison sources told BBC that this spike is likely a direct result of the increased number of people being released in a short period to create more space.
Some of the challenges have been starkly illustrated by high-profile incidents. An independent investigation was launched earlier this year after migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu was mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford instead of being transferred to an immigration detention centre. The error triggered a 48-hour manhunt before Kebatu was re-arrested in north London. Chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor commented that inexperienced staff, overwhelmed by heavy workloads and the high flow of inmates, were struggling to cope, a situation exacerbated by the implementation of recent early release schemes.
The crisis has also brought to light broader issues within the prison system. In the year to September 2025, deaths in prisons in England and Wales reached their highest level in a century, with 411 fatalities recorded—a 30% jump from the previous year’s 317, according to MoJ data. Assaults on staff have also hit a new high, with 121 assaults per 1,000 prisoners in the year to June 2025, up from 118 in the previous year. These figures paint a grim picture of the conditions behind bars and the strains placed on prison staff.
In response to the crisis, the government introduced new legislation in September 2025, with the Sentencing Bill aiming to provide long-term solutions. The bill, which is due to come into force in 2026, includes a Texas-inspired earned release scheme: inmates who demonstrate good behaviour could be freed even earlier, while those who break the rules would serve longer sentences. The reforms also propose replacing prison sentences of a year or less with tougher community-based punishments, such as financial penalties and new powers for judges to ban offenders from pubs, concerts, and football matches. Tens of thousands of offenders are expected to be tagged and monitored in the community as part of these sweeping changes.
The Ministry of Justice has pledged to build 14,000 new prison places by 2031, with 2,500 already opened since July 2024. A spokesperson told BBC, “This government inherited a prison system in crisis and took decisive action to stop our prisons from collapsing. Public protection is our number one priority. That is why offenders out on licence face strict conditions such as exclusion zones and being tagged, and they can be brought back to prison if they break these rules.”
Despite these measures, the government faces criticism from various quarters. Some argue that releasing prisoners early undermines public confidence in the justice system and potentially puts communities at risk, especially with the rising number of recalls and high-profile blunders like the Kebatu case. Others contend that the reforms are necessary to avert a total breakdown of the penal system and to ensure that prison resources are focused on the most serious offenders. The debate continues as ministers attempt to balance public safety, justice, and the practical realities of a system stretched to its limits.
Looking ahead, the success of the Sentencing Bill and the government’s broader prison strategy will be closely watched. With the legislation set to take effect in 2026 and the ambitious prison-building program underway, policymakers hope to prevent a repeat of the crisis that led to the mass early releases. For now, the story of nearly 40,000 prisoners freed early stands as a stark reminder of the challenges facing England and Wales’s criminal justice system and the urgent need for sustainable solutions.
