The political landscape of Bihar witnessed an extraordinary shake-up on November 15, 2025, as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stormed to a record-shattering victory in the state assembly elections. Defying predictions and upending conventional wisdom, the NDA—anchored by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U)—crossed the monumental 200-seat mark, leaving the Mahagathbandhan opposition alliance with barely a sliver of the legislative pie. The outcome, described by many as a political earthquake, is already being etched into Bihar’s history books for its scale and the questions it raises about the nature of electoral politics in the region.
According to CounterCurrents, the BJP surged ahead as the single largest party, notching up leads in 89 seats—an impressive leap from its 2020 tally of 74. The JD-U, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, nearly doubled its own previous performance, jumping from 43 seats in 2020 to leads in 85 this cycle. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, the mainstays of the Mahagathbandhan, suffered a near-total rout, with the NDA ultimately holding 201 seats and the opposition reduced to a shadow of its former self.
What makes this result so astonishing is the sheer disconnect between ground-level sentiment and the final numbers. Professor D. M. Diwakar, Director of the Development Research Institute in Madhubani, who conducted extensive fieldwork during the campaign, was left stunned. He called the outcome “unbelievable,” “unprecedented,” and “beyond explanation.” His disbelief was echoed by many on the ground, who saw little sign of the NDA’s coming dominance during the campaign’s feverish final weeks.
Field reports painted a picture that, in hindsight, seems almost surreal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies were sparsely attended, with journalists documenting rows of empty chairs. BJP candidates, far from being greeted as saviors, reportedly faced open hostility; Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha was even physically confronted and barred from campaigning in his own constituency. Meanwhile, opposition leaders Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav drew enthusiastic crowds, their rallies brimming with energy and hope. Yet, when the ballots were counted, this visible momentum failed to translate into votes.
So what explains this dramatic reversal? Analysts have scrambled to piece together a coherent narrative. One key factor appears to be Nitish Kumar’s last-minute welfare blitzkrieg. In the two months leading up to the election, the Chief Minister rolled out a series of populist measures: a ₹10,000 cash transfer to women under a new employment scheme, a substantial increase in old-age pensions from ₹400 to ₹1,100 per month, and salary hikes for school cooks and Anganwadi workers. These initiatives, launched in quick succession, may have decisively shifted public sentiment in favor of the NDA, especially among women and vulnerable groups.
Another possible explanation is what some have called the "transfer of goodwill." While the BJP faced resentment in many quarters, Nitish Kumar’s renewed popularity may have rubbed off on his alliance partners. The JD-U’s robust grassroots presence and Nitish’s personal credibility could have helped the BJP reap unexpected gains, even in areas where it was viewed less favorably.
Yet, this doesn’t fully account for the opposition’s collapse. Despite drawing massive crowds, Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi struggled to convert turnout into tangible electoral gains. According to CounterCurrents, there was a lingering fear—particularly among women—of a return to the RJD’s so-called “jungle raj,” a period associated with lawlessness, open circulation of alcohol, and worries that newly announced benefits might be clawed back if the opposition returned to power. Moreover, the opposition failed to sustain its momentum through to the end of the campaign, and could not convincingly rebrand itself as a clean, corruption-free alternative.
Grassroots organization (or the lack thereof) also played a crucial role. While NDA workers remained active and focused on voter mobilization right up to polling day, Congress and RJD cadres were less visible on the ground. As a result, the NDA was able to convert its strategic advantages into votes, while the opposition’s energy dissipated into the ether.
But the story doesn’t end there. The integrity of the electoral process itself has come under scrutiny. Concerns were raised about the Special Summary Revision (SIR) in Bihar, conducted just before the elections. Prashant Bhushan, a prominent public interest lawyer, highlighted several troubling issues: a disproportionate deletion of Muslim voters—25% of all deletions, despite Muslims making up only 17% of the population—virtually no detection of so-called “foreigners,” and a lack of transparent documentation. Poor and migrant workers reportedly struggled to fill out required forms, raising fears that legitimate voters were being disenfranchised.
Rahul Gandhi, at a press conference on what he called “Vote Chori” (vote theft), alleged serious irregularities. He pointed to duplicate entries and suspicious photographs in the voter lists, with some images appearing up to 200 times. Similar complaints surfaced during the Bihar elections, with voters sharing photos of mismatches between their previous and current polling locations. The Election Commission of India (ECI) responded by insisting that complainants must “prove that multiple votes were cast,” a verification only the ECI itself can perform, since it alone holds the records of who voted at each booth.
The ECI has faced sharp criticism for its perceived inaction. Observers note that the Commission did little to stop the NDA government from rolling out last-minute welfare schemes, such as the ₹10,000 cash transfers, just ahead of the vote. It also failed to act on multiple instances of alleged malpractice highlighted by Rahul Gandhi. Many have questioned whether the ECI is fulfilling its mandate to ensure free and fair elections, or whether it is, as some allege, “hand-in-glove” with the ruling alliance.
Despite the landslide, the margins of victory in many constituencies were razor-thin—sometimes just a few hundred or a few thousand votes. This suggests that even small irregularities or last-minute swings could have tipped the balance in crucial seats. The detailed results, as reported across Bihar’s constituencies, confirm a strong performance by NDA parties but also reveal a patchwork of close contests and unexpected upsets.
For now, Bihar’s 2025 assembly election stands as a stunning and bewildering turning point. Whether this outcome reflects a genuine last-minute shift in public mood, the impact of targeted welfare policies, the consolidation of support under Nitish Kumar, or deeper currents in the state’s political culture, is a question that will fuel debate for years to come. What’s clear is that the state’s electorate, known for its savvy and unpredictability, has once again delivered a verdict that defies easy explanation—and has left both victors and vanquished searching for answers.
