On October 13, 2025, the U.S. government entered its thirteenth day of a shutdown, with little sign of progress and warnings from House Speaker Mike Johnson that the standoff could become the longest in American history. As the days tick by, the effects are rippling across the country, shuttering museums, disrupting airports, and putting paychecks for millions of federal workers in limbo. At the heart of the impasse: a fierce dispute over the future of health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), better known as Obamacare.
Speaker Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, has dug in his heels, insisting that he "won’t negotiate" with Democrats until they agree to suspend their health care demands and support reopening the government. According to The Hill, Johnson has canceled votes in the House and kept lawmakers in recess, aiming to pressure Senate Democrats into accepting what Republicans call a "clean" stopgap funding measure. "You can poll individual House Republicans, maybe you should, and 98.7 percent of them will tell you that this is the right thing," Johnson declared at a recent press conference, defending his strategy to keep the House out of session.
Democrats, for their part, remain equally resolute. They have conditioned their support for any short-term funding bill on the continuation of ACA subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. Without congressional action, millions of Americans could see their health insurance premiums double next year. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that annual premiums for enrollees could jump from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026 if the subsidies lapse. Enrollment in ACA plans has soared, doubling from 11 million in 2021 to 24 million in 2025, a testament to the program’s growing importance.
The shutdown’s impact is being felt far and wide. As reported by USA Today, thousands of federal employees have been furloughed, and government operations remain at a standstill. Smithsonian museums and other cultural landmarks are closed, while airports are grappling with flight delays. The Trump administration, which currently occupies the White House, has exercised discretion over which employees are paid and which are furloughed—a move that has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle and prompted lawsuits from employee unions. Vice President JD Vance described the ongoing cuts as "painful," highlighting the human toll of the stalemate.
One notable exception to the shutdown’s reach: military personnel and Coast Guard members are still receiving their pay, thanks to President Trump’s directive for the Pentagon to tap $8 billion in unused research and development funds. This maneuver sidestepped what could have been a major pressure point, as missed paychecks for service members have historically pushed lawmakers toward compromise. However, other departments, such as Education, are not so fortunate. Disruptions there are affecting special education and after-school programs, compounding frustrations for families and educators alike.
The legislative deadlock has a familiar ring. The ACA has been a political flashpoint since its passage in 2010, sparking a 16-day shutdown in 2013 when Republicans sought its repeal and again in 2017 during President Trump’s first term. Speaker Johnson acknowledged the scars of past battles, saying Republicans are unlikely to attempt a full repeal again, calling the effort a source of "PTSD" from previous failures. Still, Johnson insists that Republicans are open to discussing health care solutions—just not until the government is reopened.
On the Senate side, the impasse is just as entrenched. The chamber has already seen seven failed votes on competing funding proposals, with an eighth scheduled for October 14. Republicans, who control the Senate, lack the five Democratic votes needed to advance their preferred measure, which would keep the government funded through November 21. Democrats, led by Senator Chuck Schumer, have made it clear they will not budge without a deal on health care. As Schumer put it on social media, "Republicans control the Senate, the House, and the White House," but are unwilling to compromise on the issue of ACA subsidies.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has accused Republicans of "scheming to repeal the Affordable Care Act and take away healthcare from tens of millions of Americans." In another statement, he questioned, "The healthcare crisis in America is real. Why aren’t Republicans willing to do something about it?" The rhetorical volleys underscore how deeply partisan and personal the fight has become.
Behind the scenes, the shutdown has also become a proving ground for the House Freedom Caucus, the hardline conservative group that has long pushed for aggressive tactics in budget negotiations. Johnson, though never a member himself, has earned the group’s praise for his uncompromising approach. At a recent press call hosted by the caucus, Chair Andy Harris called it "history in the making" and emphasized their alignment with Johnson on conservative fiscal policies. "We both view—the Speaker and the Freedom Caucus view—the federal debt and the federal deficit as an existential threat, and we’re working arm in arm with him to address that," Harris said.
Yet, not all Republicans are on board. Some, including former Freedom Caucus member Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Rep. Kevin Kiley, have publicly criticized Johnson’s indefinite cancellation of House votes. They argue the chamber should be negotiating, not recessing, especially as public frustration mounts. Still, Johnson maintains that the "vast majority" of his conference supports his strategy and that the next appropriations package is already being prepared.
As the shutdown stretches on, the stakes are rising. The next major deadline looms at the end of October, coinciding with the start of open enrollment for ACA plans on November 1. If Congress fails to act by December 31, the subsidy cliff will hit, and Americans could face sharply higher insurance bills. Meanwhile, government workers on monthly pay schedules—including thousands of House aides—are set to miss paychecks at the end of the month, adding to the financial strain.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days in 2019, also under President Trump, over a dispute about funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. With both sides now entrenched and neither willing to blink, some observers worry that the current standoff could surpass that record, with unpredictable consequences for the economy and public trust in government.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, some agencies can continue operating using funds from the 2025 reconciliation act or other mandatory sources, providing a temporary lifeline for select programs. But for most Americans, the uncertainty and disruption are becoming harder to ignore.
As October draws to a close, lawmakers face mounting pressure to find a way forward. Whether they can bridge the divide over health care—and reopen the government before lasting damage is done—remains to be seen. For now, the nation watches and waits, hoping that pragmatism will prevail over political brinkmanship.
