NASA’s ambitious Artemis III mission, heralded as the first crewed lunar landing since 1972, is now facing mounting skepticism over its 2027 target date, with new warnings that delays could stretch for years. The latest caution comes from NASA’s own Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), which has raised serious concerns about the readiness of SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System (HLS)—the spacecraft crucial for ferrying astronauts from lunar orbit down to the Moon’s surface.
At a public briefing held on September 19 and again in follow-up statements through September 22, 2025, ASAP members did not mince words. After a visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, Paul Hill, Kent Rominger, and Charlie Precourt—each with deep NASA credentials—reported being impressed by SpaceX’s “multi-faceted, self-perpetuating genius” for ramping up manufacturing and flight operations. Still, they found the Starship HLS schedule “significantly challenged” and warned that the project “could be years late for a 2027 Artemis III Moon landing.” According to SpacePolicyOnline, Hill emphasized, “On-orbit cryo-propellant transfer is critical to the HLS mission and its successful development is required for Artemis III.”
The Artemis III mission is not just another outing for NASA. It’s the program’s crown jewel—a return to the lunar surface, this time with a diverse crew, and a stepping stone for future Mars missions. The plan is for four astronauts to launch aboard NASA’s Orion spacecraft, propelled by the powerful SLS rocket. Once in lunar orbit, two crew members would transfer to the Starship HLS for their descent to the Moon. But right now, the path to that historic moment is anything but clear.
One of the most daunting technical hurdles is the need for Starship to refuel in low Earth orbit before heading to the Moon. This “cryogenic propellant transfer” has never been attempted in space. As SpaceNews reported, the challenge lies in transferring super-cold liquid methane and oxygen between vehicles in microgravity—an engineering feat that’s still unproven. The number of tanker flights needed to fill an orbital depot remains unknown, and boil-off of cryogenic fuels adds another layer of complexity.
SpaceX is pushing ahead with its next-generation Starship rockets, dubbed V3 and V4, which promise greater payload capacity and enhanced reliability. According to Benzinga, CEO Elon Musk recently stated on social media that “once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit.” Musk predicted that by 2027, SpaceX could account for as much as 98% of all orbital payload deliveries, a staggering figure that underscores the company’s dominance in commercial spaceflight. The V3 rocket is targeting a test launch by the end of 2025, with the V4 capable of hauling up to 200 tons to orbit.
Yet, the very success that has made SpaceX a leader in the industry may be a double-edged sword for Artemis. The company’s satellite internet business, Starlink, is booming—recently, SpaceX launched 21 satellites for the U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency, bolstering missile tracking and military communications. Starlink is also working with chipmakers to enable direct-to-phone internet service and has signed a $17 billion deal with EchoStar Corp to acquire critical spectrum licenses. All these ventures compete for engineering talent and Starship hardware, raising the risk that HLS development could take a back seat to more lucrative or urgent projects.
ASAP’s concerns go beyond just the spacecraft. Bill Bray, another panel member, told NASA leadership that “the path for Artemis III and beyond is uncertain and a little murky, which is not good for the program safety and risk posture going forward.” He noted that the aggressive delivery schedules for both Starship HLS and the lunar spacesuits being developed by Axiom Space put the entire timeline in jeopardy. “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement,” Bray warned during the panel’s third-quarter 2025 meeting, according to SpacePolicyOnline.
Since 2023, ASAP has been urging NASA to reevaluate the “high number of individual risks and mission firsts” associated with Artemis III, and to consider spreading them across multiple missions—a strategy that echoes how NASA managed risk during the Apollo era. To date, NASA has acknowledged the recommendation but has yet to announce a restructured approach.
Despite the sobering assessment, the panel was quick to acknowledge SpaceX’s achievements. The company’s relentless drive to reduce launch costs through reusable rockets, particularly the Falcon 9, has transformed the economics of spaceflight. Starship itself, comprising the Super Heavy booster and the upper-stage spacecraft, has flown 10 times since 2023. Still, as Digital Trends noted, many key milestones remain unmet, and the pace of progress is slower than NASA’s lunar ambitions require.
Meanwhile, the Artemis II mission—scheduled for 2026—is still on track and will use the same SLS and Orion systems as Artemis III. Any hiccup with Artemis II could ripple forward, further impacting the already precarious Artemis III schedule.
There’s also a geopolitical undercurrent to the urgency. With China making rapid strides in its lunar ambitions, U.S. political leaders on both sides of the aisle are determined not to cede the next “first” on the Moon. Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy summed up the sentiment when he declared, “I’ll be damned if China gets there before America gets back,” responding to concerns voiced by former NASA chief Jim Bridenstine that Starship likely won’t be ready by 2027.
The stakes are high, and the pressure is mounting. Artemis III represents more than a technical challenge; it’s a test of America’s ability to lead in space exploration amidst rapidly shifting technological, commercial, and geopolitical landscapes. As the months tick by, the spotlight will remain fixed on SpaceX’s Starbase and the daunting list of milestones that must be met to keep the dream of a 2027 lunar landing alive.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. NASA, SpaceX, and their partners face a race against time—and physics—to deliver on a promise that has captured the world’s imagination. Whether they can stick the landing, or whether Artemis III will join the long list of delayed space milestones, remains to be seen.
