Myanmar’s military junta has announced that the country will hold its first general election since the 2021 coup, with the initial phase set to begin on December 28, 2025. The declaration, made on August 18 by the Union Election Commission, marks the start of a phased polling process, with subsequent dates to be revealed later. While the ruling generals tout the election as a step toward peace and stability, opposition groups, international observers, and much of the global community see it as little more than a bid to legitimize continued military rule in a country fractured by civil war.
The military, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, seized power from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, citing unproven allegations of electoral fraud. Since then, Myanmar has been plunged into a brutal conflict that has killed thousands, displaced more than 3.5 million people, and left over half the nation in poverty, according to The Hindu and NPR. Large swathes of the country are now controlled by pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic armed organizations, many of whom have vowed to block voting in their territories, rendering much of the country beyond the junta’s grasp.
The upcoming election will occur over three separate days, with the first phase on December 28 and two additional phases expected in January 2026, though precise dates remain unannounced due to “security concerns.” Voting is planned for more than 300 constituencies nationwide, including some areas currently under rebel control, but the practicalities of conducting a credible poll in a nation at war remain deeply uncertain. A census conducted last year as a prelude to the election failed to collect data from 19 million of Myanmar’s 51 million people, citing “significant security constraints”—a telling sign of the limits the junta faces in asserting its authority, as reported by The Hindu.
Opposition groups, including the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, have been banned or dissolved. Many others have declared their intention to boycott the election, dismissing it as a “sham” and a “fraud” designed to rebrand military rule with a veneer of democratic legitimacy. A United Nations expert echoed these concerns, branding the vote “a ‘fraud’ designed to rebrand continuing military rule,” according to multiple reports.
The junta’s strategy for political consolidation has relied on a mix of repression, legal manipulation, and strategic alliances. Since the coup, it has rescinded the state of emergency, imposed strict electoral laws, replaced civilian election officials with military loyalists, and criminalized dissent through sweeping cybersecurity laws. Martial law has been declared in 63 townships, many in ethnic minority regions, in a bid to quell resistance and tighten control. The regime has also offered cash rewards to opposition fighters willing to lay down arms ahead of the vote, though few have taken up the offer, as The Hindu notes.
General Min Aung Hlaing, who now serves as both acting president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, is widely expected to maintain his grip on power regardless of the election outcome. Analysts say the process is engineered to ensure his continued dominance, with any new government likely to remain under his sway. According to The Hindu, “the election will likely see Gen. Min Aung Hlaing maintain his power over any new government.”
International monitors and many in the diplomatic community have criticized the planned elections, arguing that the conditions for a free and fair vote simply do not exist. The ongoing conflict, widespread displacement, and the exclusion of major opposition forces have led many to predict that the poll will do little to resolve Myanmar’s deepening crisis. As NPR reports, “the conflict that erupted after the 2021 coup has claimed thousands of lives, displaced millions, and shows no sign of ending.”
Yet, while the political process is widely condemned, the junta’s economic strategy has continued to attract significant foreign investment—albeit from a narrower group of allies. According to AInvest, foreign direct investment in Myanmar’s infrastructure sector reached $690 million in fiscal year 2024–2025, led by oil and gas ($357 million) and transport ($87.7 million). China and Russia have emerged as the regime’s primary backers, pouring money into major projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and the $60 billion Russian-backed Dawei Special Economic Zone. Chinese state-owned enterprises such as PowerChina and China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) have seen tangible benefits; CCCC’s shares, for example, were up 12% year-to-date in 2024–2025, according to AInvest.
Russian energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom are also deepening their involvement in Myanmar’s oil and gas sector, leveraging the junta’s need for infrastructure to cement their presence. However, this influx of capital is not without risks. The instability of the regime, coupled with the threat of further international sanctions and the ever-present danger of project disruption due to violence, makes long-term investment in Myanmar a perilous proposition. “The 2025 election is seen as a red flag for investors due to its nature as a power grab rather than a democratic transition,” AInvest notes.
For Western investors, the risks have proven too great, with most steering clear of Myanmar due to sanctions and reputational concerns. In contrast, Chinese and Russian capital continues to flow, underscoring a regional split in how Myanmar’s crisis is viewed and exploited for economic gain. This divergence has implications for regional capital flows, with Thai and Vietnamese construction firms cautiously eyeing Myanmar but limiting their exposure due to the ongoing instability.
The broader regional impact of Myanmar’s turmoil cannot be ignored. Should the junta’s repression escalate further, neighboring countries like Thailand and Malaysia could face significant spillover effects, including potential refugee crises and disruptions to trade routes. Such outcomes would not only deepen the humanitarian crisis but could also pressure equities in sectors like logistics and tourism across Southeast Asia.
As the December 28 election date approaches, Myanmar stands at a crossroads. The junta’s promise of democracy rings hollow to many both inside and outside the country, with critics arguing that the poll is little more than a high-stakes gambit to cement military rule. The real test will come not at the ballot box, but in the streets, villages, and borderlands where the struggle for Myanmar’s future continues—often far from the reach of any polling station.
In the end, the outcome of Myanmar’s election is unlikely to bring the peace or legitimacy the junta seeks. Instead, it may further entrench divisions, deepen the crisis, and prolong the suffering of millions who have already endured years of conflict and displacement.
