On the cusp of a pivotal parliamentary election, Moldova finds itself at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical struggle, with President Maia Sandu warning that her country’s very survival may depend on joining the European Union. In a forceful address before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on September 9, 2025, Sandu outlined the existential threats facing her nation, citing unprecedented Russian aggression and a campaign of hybrid warfare aimed at undermining Moldova’s fragile democracy.
"Our European path is not just a matter of values, it is a matter of survival," Sandu declared, according to MGDK. Her remarks underscored the gravity of the moment: Moldova, a small country of 2.4 million people sharing a 1,200-kilometer border with war-ravaged Ukraine, has become a frontline state in Russia’s broader campaign to destabilize its western neighbors.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the scale and intensity of attacks on Moldova have grown dramatically. According to MGDK, Sandu described the current onslaught as "an unlimited hybrid war on a scale unseen before," with the Kremlin deploying cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to sway elections. The president did not mince words, calling Russia "the greatest threat we face."
With parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, 2025, the stakes could hardly be higher. Sandu and her allies believe that Moscow’s goal is clear: to "capture Moldova through the ballot box, use us against Ukraine, and turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union," as she told lawmakers in Strasbourg. The specter of Russian meddling looms large, with Sandu warning that the upcoming vote could determine whether Moldova remains on a pro-European trajectory or is pulled back into Moscow’s orbit.
Allegations of Russian interference are not new. In the November 2016 presidential elections, Moscow was accused of influencing the outcome in favor of pro-Russian parties through so-called "hybrid warfare" techniques. Sandu’s victory in a tense presidential race last year, held alongside a referendum on EU membership, was hard-won: the referendum passed by the narrowest of margins—just 50.4% in favor, 49.6% against—amid clear signs of Russian interference, as reported by MGDK and EUNews.
Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) leads the pro-European bloc in the upcoming elections and is polling at approximately 33%, according to the "Barometrul iData, August 2025" survey cited by EUNews. Yet, the opposition is formidable. The pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, led by former president Igor Dodon, is close behind at around 30%. Dodon’s coalition, which met with Russian officials in Moscow as recently as July, openly questions Sandu’s legitimacy and proposes a nationalist agenda that would break with the EU integration process. A third group, the "Alternative" coalition headed by former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, is polling at about 10% and has taken an increasingly tough line against Brussels.
Sandu has described the coming vote as "the most important" in Moldova’s history, a sentiment echoed by European officials. Gert Jan Koopman, Director General of the European Commission’s enlargement policy, told EUNews that "it is not unrealistic to assume [EU accession] can be completed by the end of 2027, perhaps even a little earlier," provided Moldova stays the course.
The context, however, is fraught. Moldova’s energy crisis, triggered by Russia’s decision to cut off gas supplies via Gazprom on January 1, 2025, has led to a 40% spike in gas bills, hitting households hard and fueling pro-Russian populism. The situation is further complicated by the presence of the breakaway region of Transnistria, which remains closely aligned with Moscow and could serve as a flashpoint for further escalation.
In response, Sandu’s government has moved to diversify energy supplies, successfully connecting Moldova in early 2025 to the "vertical corridor" pipeline linking it to the Mediterranean via Alexandropolis, Greece. This strategic shift is part of a broader push for reform and resilience, as Moldova seeks to meet EU benchmarks in its judiciary, government, and economy. "We are not asking for shortcuts. We are doing our homework diligently," Sandu insisted in Strasbourg, as reported by EUNews.
Yet, the president is under no illusions about the challenges ahead. "We are in a race against time to protect our democracy," she said, highlighting the real risk that a political reversal in September could derail Moldova’s European aspirations. According to Sandu, Russia has already spent "about the equivalent of 1% of Moldovan GDP to finance campaigns to disrupt democracy," a staggering investment in destabilization tactics that include cyberattacks on institutions, funding of protests, and even the enlistment of criminal groups to intimidate voters.
European support for Moldova has grown in response to these threats. In August 2025, the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland visited Chișinău in a show of solidarity, reaffirming the EU’s commitment to Moldova’s democratic process and its resistance to Russian influence, as MGDK noted. The European Union has made clear its support for Moldova’s right to self-determination and its path toward integration, though the process is not without obstacles. Moldova’s EU accession is currently tied to Ukraine’s application, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly signaled his intent to block Ukraine’s membership—a move that could also stall Moldova’s progress.
Amid these uncertainties, Sandu’s message to both her people and to Europe is one of urgency and resolve. She called on Moldova’s "friends" in the European Parliament and beyond to recognize that "democracy does not come automatically, but is achieved thanks to the support of friends." The outcome of the September 28 elections will not only determine Moldova’s immediate future but could also reshape the balance of power in Eastern Europe, with implications for the EU’s security and cohesion.
As the campaign enters its final weeks, Moldova’s citizens are being asked to choose between competing visions for their country’s future: one rooted in European integration and reform, the other in nostalgia for the past and alignment with Moscow. The result, as Sandu and her allies have made clear, will reverberate far beyond the borders of this small but strategically vital nation.
With the clock ticking and the stakes higher than ever, all eyes are now on Moldova—a country at the crossroads, fighting to decide its own destiny in the shadow of powerful external forces.
