Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s conspicuous absence from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia on October 26, 2025, has sparked a flurry of speculation and analysis, especially as it comes at a time of heightened tensions between India and the United States. According to Bloomberg, Modi’s decision to skip the regional leaders’ gathering was driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump would raise the contentious issue of Pakistan—a subject that has become a diplomatic minefield for both leaders in recent months.
The summit, held in Kuala Lumpur, was expected to be a routine fixture in Modi’s diplomatic calendar. Since assuming office in 2014, Modi has made it a point to attend every ASEAN leaders’ meeting in person, with the exception of 2022 when global travel was still hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, however, Modi opted for a virtual appearance, a choice that was anything but routine. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the Indian leader’s last-minute change of plans was motivated by the risk of an awkward encounter with Trump, whose unpredictable remarks about India and Pakistan have previously caused headaches for New Delhi.
Modi’s absence did not go unnoticed. As Bloomberg reported, Indian officials were apprehensive that Trump would once again tout his self-proclaimed role as a mediator in the India-Pakistan conflict—a claim that India has consistently denied. The timing couldn’t have been more sensitive: a crucial state election in Bihar, one of India’s largest and most politically significant regions, was set to begin just days after the summit, on November 4, 2025. Modi, who is the face of his party’s campaign in Bihar, was reportedly keen to avoid any public confrontation or offhand remark from Trump that could be weaponized by political rivals at home.
The diplomatic dance between Modi and Trump has grown increasingly complicated since a flare-up between India and Pakistan five months ago. In the aftermath of that conflict, relations between India and the U.S. took a nosedive. Trump responded by slapping a hefty 50% tariff on Indian exports in August 2025, with half of that penalty directly tied to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. Trade talks between the two countries have since stalled, with no breakthrough in sight. Earlier this month, Trump claimed that Modi had assured him India would halt its Russian oil imports—a statement that India’s Ministry of External Affairs promptly denied, according to Bloomberg.
The two leaders did speak on the phone last week, on the occasion of Diwali, India’s festival of lights. Trump, speaking to reporters after the call, said, “We talked about trade—we talked about a lot of things, but mostly the world of trade, he’s very interested in that. Although we did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan.” For Modi, the prospect of Trump bringing up Pakistan in a public forum, especially so close to a major election, was a risk not worth taking.
Modi’s decision to participate virtually in the ASEAN summit was also influenced by a broader calculation: his team, according to Bloomberg, saw little benefit in a bilateral meeting with Trump in Malaysia. The two leaders have had a rocky rapport of late, with a particularly tense 35-minute conversation in June reportedly souring the mood. While they have patched things up enough to speak at least three times since September, Modi’s reluctance to engage directly with Trump in Kuala Lumpur underscores the unpredictability that has come to define their relationship.
Trump, for his part, has made no secret of his desire to be seen as a global peacemaker. At an event in Tokyo on October 21, 2025, he once again claimed credit for averting a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. “I said to Prime Minister Modi, and I said to the Prime Minister, very nice man and very good man—and the Field Marshal over in Pakistan, I said, ‘Look, we’re not going to do any trade if you’re going to be fighting’,” Trump recounted. The response, according to Trump, was, “No, no, no. One thing has nothing to do with the other.” Trump insisted, “I said, ‘It has a lot to do with the other’.”
Pakistan, in contrast to India’s official stance, has publicly credited Trump for securing a ceasefire and even nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump returned the favor by praising Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, describing them as “great people” during his recent remarks. The divergence in how India and Pakistan view Trump’s involvement in the conflict has only added to the diplomatic tightrope Modi must walk.
Modi’s absence from the summit has not escaped criticism at home. Rahul Gandhi, a leading figure in the opposition Indian National Congress, was quick to seize on the moment. “PM Modi is frightened of Trump,” Gandhi asserted in a social media post, highlighting the prime minister’s silence in the face of Trump’s repeated claims. The comment tapped into a broader narrative pushed by Modi’s rivals, who accuse him of failing to stand up to the U.S. president.
Despite these tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Modi’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, was in Kuala Lumpur on October 27, 2025, where he met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The two discussed the state of bilateral ties, with Rubio later assuring reporters that America’s relationship with Pakistan does not come at India’s expense. It’s a message aimed at reassuring New Delhi, even as both sides grapple with unresolved trade and security issues.
Looking ahead, Modi is scheduled to attend the Group of 20 (G20) leaders’ summit in Johannesburg in November 2025. According to people familiar with the matter, a face-to-face meeting with Trump is not out of the question if trade negotiations show signs of progress. For now, though, Modi’s cautious approach reflects both the high stakes of domestic politics and the unpredictable nature of his American counterpart.
In the end, Modi’s virtual speech at the ASEAN summit may have been a diplomatic compromise, but it speaks volumes about the shifting calculus of international relations in an era where even the most seasoned leaders must weigh every move against the volatile backdrop of global politics—and the ever-watchful eyes of their own electorates.
