As Election Day nears in two of the nation’s most closely watched gubernatorial races—New Jersey and Virginia—Democratic candidates Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are testing a new playbook: moderation, pragmatism, and a laser focus on economic issues facing everyday Americans. With polls tightening and party divisions deepening, the outcome in these states may signal the direction both major parties take as they prepare for the pivotal 2026 midterms.
In New Jersey, the contest between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has become the most expensive in state history, with spending surpassing $145 million by September, according to state filings cited by USA TODAY. A Suffolk University poll conducted from October 26 to 29, 2025, found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by four points among likely voters—46% to 42%—but with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, the race remains highly competitive. Another 7% of voters were undecided, and 3% refused to respond, leaving plenty of room for last-minute shifts.
David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, underscored the stakes: “The candidate with the best turnout operation takes the prize, pure and simple.” Early voting, which began October 25 and continues through November 2, has already revealed a striking trend—among those who have cast ballots so far, Sherrill holds a commanding 21-point lead (56% to Ciattarelli’s 35%).
The contest’s high profile has drawn national heavyweights. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Sherrill, while former President Donald Trump threw his support behind Ciattarelli. Trump’s involvement is especially notable: while he lost New Jersey in 2024, he closed the gap to just under six points behind Democrat Kamala Harris, marking one of the largest swings toward Republicans in the country. A Democratic win in the governor’s race could thus serve as a warning sign for the GOP, while a Republican upset would be a major coup.
For Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and current congresswoman, the strategy is clear: keep the message centrist and grounded in economic realities. Her campaign, in step with Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger, is betting that voters are more concerned with the cost of living, healthcare, and public safety than with the fiery culture wars and anti-Trump rhetoric that dominated previous cycles. As AP National Political Writer Steve Peoples observed, “They are betting big that a centrist message aimed at voters’ economic concerns will deliver victory where an intense focus on stopping Trump from unraveling American democracy failed in 2024.”
Virginia’s gubernatorial race has become a parallel experiment in moderation. Spanberger, a former congresswoman and CIA case officer, is seeking to become the state’s first female governor. She has deliberately steered clear of grandiose promises and polarizing attacks, instead highlighting the struggles of soybean farmers and the economic anxieties of working families. “Don’t promise things you know you can’t deliver,” Spanberger cautioned during a statewide bus tour, a message she has aimed at both fellow Democrats and national leaders like President Joe Biden.
Her approach is not just about policy but about trust. Spanberger warns that making pledges that can’t be kept—such as sweeping student debt cancellation—risks alienating voters. “If he’s making promises that he can’t keep to people who are struggling to put food on the table for their kids or to pay their bus fare to get to their second job of the day, then what’s the long-term impact on the people who put their faith in somebody?” she said, as reported by the Associated Press.
Spanberger’s campaign has also downplayed the historic nature of her candidacy. “I’m delighted that we will have a woman governor. I’m delighted by the fact that when the next generation of candidates step forward, it’s not, ‘Oh, do you think a woman can win?’” she remarked. But she insists the race is not about her; it’s about solving voters’ pressing issues.
This pragmatic, centrist approach is not without controversy inside the Democratic Party. Progressive leaders—including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—are backing New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, who has proposed far-left policies like government-run grocery stores and rent freezes. Mamdani’s heated race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, now running as an independent, has become a proxy battle for the soul of the party. Cuomo warned, “The socialists want to take over the Democratic Party. He wins, book airline tickets for Florida now.”
Yet even among Democratic voters, there’s a yearning for both pragmatism and progress. Mikal Blount, a 31-year-old window cleaner who attended a Spanberger event in Virginia, said he admires her bipartisan style but also hopes for a progressive like Mamdani to emerge nationally. “It’s OK to have moderates create common ground and progressives who are down to fight,” he said, expressing frustration with party leaders in Washington.
Republican candidates in both states—Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia—have tried to frame their Democratic rivals as out of touch with mainstream values, focusing on issues like transgender rights and immigration. They hope to replicate the success of Trump’s messaging in previous cycles, which painted Democrats as more concerned with cultural issues than with the everyday safety and prosperity of Americans.
But with the national mood shifting, some Democratic strategists believe the time is ripe for a reset. A report released this week by a group of Democratic operatives, “Deciding to Win: Toward a Common Sense Renewal of the Democratic Party,” calls for candidates to reject progressive purity tests and instead focus on bread-and-butter issues. “Trump’s authoritarianism will fail—not because we convince people it’s authoritarian, but because we show them it’s expensive,” said veteran Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson, who contributed to the report.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who has campaigned alongside both Spanberger and Sherrill, praised their emphasis on economic stability and practical solutions. “The lesson is winning,” Shapiro told AP, noting that the same approach helped him secure victory in his own swing state and could be the key to the party’s national revival.
As early voting wraps up and the final ballots are cast, both parties are watching closely. For Democrats, victories in New Jersey and Virginia would not only break historical records—Sherrill’s win would mark the first time Democrats have held New Jersey’s governorship for three consecutive terms since the 1960s—but also provide a roadmap for winning back disaffected voters. For Republicans, a strong showing would affirm the enduring power of their cultural messaging and set the stage for 2026.
With the nation’s political future hanging in the balance, the outcomes in New Jersey and Virginia may well determine which vision—pragmatic moderation or ideological purity—guides the next chapter of American politics.
