As Argentina approaches its pivotal midterm elections on October 26, 2025, the political fate of President Javier Milei and his far-right party, La Libertad Avanza, hangs in the balance. The vote will determine whether Milei can transform his minority status in Congress into a more powerful position, potentially reshaping the trajectory of his presidency and Argentina’s economic recovery—or lack thereof. The stakes are high, the scandals are plentiful, and the country’s chronic financial crisis looms over every campaign promise and protest sign.
For Milei, the midterms are more than just a contest for legislative seats—they’re a referendum on the first half of his four-year term. According to Al Jazeera, both chambers of Congress are currently controlled by the left-wing and centrist opposition, making it nearly impossible for Milei to push through his sweeping reforms. Political analyst Andres Malamud explained the government’s strategy: “The government is looking to get a third of Congress to build a ‘legislative shield.’” Such a block would prevent the opposition from forming a supermajority capable of overriding Milei’s vetoes or even impeaching him. In other words, the election could decide whether Milei governs with a free hand or remains hemmed in by adversaries.
Milei’s economic record is the central issue. He rode to power in November 2023 as a self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist and outsider, vowing to slash what he called a “caste” of corrupt career politicians. True to his word, he wielded a metaphorical “chainsaw” against federal spending, cutting budgets for healthcare, education, social services, and public infrastructure. These measures helped stabilize Argentina’s sky-high inflation and generated a fiscal surplus, but they also led to a sharp appreciation of the peso. The result? Salaries stalled, and the purchasing power of ordinary Argentines dropped, fueling discontent across large swathes of the population.
“So far, he has been able to govern thanks to the public’s support, from people who were struggling but believed he could change things—that the future was going to be better,” Malamud told Al Jazeera. “But the challenge now is that things are not better, so the question is whether those who supported him before will go and vote for his candidates.”
Despite the tough economic medicine, some Argentines remain steadfast in their support. At Milei’s final pre-election rally in Rosario on October 23, thousands gathered, waving both Argentine and purple La Libertad Avanza flags. The event felt more like a rock concert than a political rally, complete with thunderous music and Milei himself singing a capella. “We are on the right path, which is why I ask you to continue supporting us this Sunday,” Milei declared, promising that “Argentina will change.”
Among his supporters was Alejandra Paso, a 67-year-old retiree whose demographic has been hit hardest by the austerity cuts. “If he hasn’t done more, it’s because he doesn’t have the money,” she told AFP. Paso’s faith in Milei is rooted in his outsider persona and his willingness to speak “the language of the streets,” offering hope for change that previous leaders never dared attempt.
But for every supporter, there’s a vocal critic. Just blocks from the Rosario rally, hundreds joined a protest march. Signs denounced Milei as “persona non grata” and demanded an end to pension cuts and stagnant salaries. “In Rosario, the city that exports cereals to the world, there is hunger,” activist Eduardo Delmonte told AFP. Street vendor Leonardo Gresso, who voted for Milei in 2023, expressed his disillusionment: “I had hope, today I don’t even have that.”
The economic pain is real and widespread. According to researcher Mariana Heredia of CONICET, the only sectors showing any momentum are mining and oil—industries with little benefit for urban populations, who make up the majority of voters. “The government is heading into the election weakened because, unlike last year when it managed to combine stabilisation with a modest economic rebound, this year the effects of the austerity measures are being felt much more strongly across a range of sectors,” Heredia said to Al Jazeera.
Compounding Milei’s challenges is a string of high-level scandals. On October 6, Milei-backed candidate Jose Luis Espert suspended his campaign after being charged with money laundering. Prosecutors allege Espert took at least $200,000 from a businessman facing extradition to the U.S. on drug trafficking and fraud charges. Milei denounced the accusations as a “malicious operation” to “smear” his candidate, while Espert denied any wrongdoing.
Meanwhile, leaked audio surfaced in which Diego Spagnuolo, the former head of Argentina’s National Disability Agency, accused Milei’s sister, Karina Milei—whom Milei appointed secretary-general to the presidency—of soliciting kickbacks from pharmaceutical companies. Milei dismissed the audio as part of an “orchestrated and planned disinformation campaign” intended to “maliciously influence the electoral process.” Nonetheless, the scandals have battered Milei’s approval ratings and forced him to cancel at least four campaign rallies after hostile crowds hurled insults and stones.
Congress has not hesitated to flex its muscle in response. In September and October, lawmakers overrode Milei’s vetoes to preserve disability, education, and healthcare funding. According to political scientist Carolina Barry, “The government is facing this race in a state of considerable uncertainty, thanks to the many setbacks it has suffered in Congress and the accusations affecting the party.”
Internationally, Milei has found a powerful, if controversial, ally in U.S. President Donald Trump. On September 23, Trump endorsed Milei, and the U.S. Treasury soon announced a $20 billion currency swap to stabilize the peso. But Trump made the aid contingent on Milei’s success at the polls, a move that sent the peso tumbling after a brief rally. As Barry noted, “Trump is supporting Milei, but then he says something else, and that is generating a lot of questions and uncertainty. None of that is helping Milei at home.”
Polls suggest Milei’s party faces an uphill battle. The research firm Nueva Comunicacion found the center-left Fuerza Patria leading La Libertad Avanza by 15 points ahead of the vote. Recent provincial elections in Buenos Aires, seen as a bellwether, also favored Fuerza Patria.
Still, the outcome is far from certain. As Malamud observed, “His support base is fragile. It is based on expectations of the future. In the end, everything is about the economy and money.” For Milei, the midterms are a high-wire act: a chance to secure the legislative shield he desperately needs, or a moment when voter frustration and scandal could bring his agenda to a grinding halt.
The coming days will reveal whether Milei’s promises and defiant style can overcome Argentina’s entrenched crises and political headwinds, or if the opposition will tighten its grip on Congress, forcing a dramatic rethink of the country’s path forward.
