On October 26, 2025, Argentines headed to the polls for a midterm election that, on the surface, involved less than half of Congress. But the stakes could hardly have been higher. President Javier Milei, the libertarian firebrand who swept to power with a stunning 56% of the vote in 2023, found his ambitious reform agenda hanging in the balance. With financial markets, international investors, and even the White House watching anxiously, the outcome would determine whether Milei’s radical economic overhaul would survive—or sputter out in the face of mounting opposition and scandal.
Milei’s rise was nothing short of meteoric. His anti-politics rhetoric and outsider persona had upended Argentina’s political landscape, but his party, La Libertad Avanza, entered the midterms with only 37 deputies and 6 senators—far from a majority in the 257-seat Chamber of Deputies and 72-member Senate. As AFP reported, the election would renew just half the lower house and a third of the upper, meaning Milei’s hopes for a legislative majority were mathematically out of reach. Still, even boosting his party’s share to a third of seats, up from just 15%, would give him the power to veto hostile legislation and fend off attempts to override his presidential vetoes. "That would be a good number," Milei acknowledged, underscoring the high stakes.
Yet the path to that number was anything but smooth. Although Milei could tout some early successes—most notably, slashing inflation from a staggering 200% to 31% and delivering Argentina’s first balanced budget in 14 years—the reforms came at a steep cost. According to AFP and AP, over 200,000 jobs vanished, the economy slipped into recession for much of 2024, and the removal of government subsidies sent housing, healthcare, and education costs soaring. For many Argentines, the promised hope of Milei’s revolution had faded. "We're the same as two years ago, but worse," lamented Héctor Sánchez, a 62-year-old waiter who once voted for Milei but was now undecided. "The hope that was there is gone."
Scandal and controversy soon compounded Milei’s woes. In February, he promoted a cryptocurrency memecoin on social media that collapsed spectacularly, costing investors $250 million. By August, his powerful sister faced bribery accusations involving a government medicine supplier, though she denied wrongdoing. The final blow came when José Luis Espert, Milei’s leading candidate in Buenos Aires province, dropped out after admitting to receiving $200,000 from a businessman indicted in the U.S. for drug trafficking—money he claimed was for consulting services. Despite Espert’s withdrawal, his name remained on the ballot due to printing deadlines, as AP noted, creating confusion and embarrassment for the party. Meanwhile, another candidate, Karen Reichardt, was criticized for past social media posts attacking soccer legend Lionel Messi and using racially insensitive language.
Milei’s campaign strategy only deepened the challenges. He ran aggressive, solo campaigns in some districts and allied with the pro-business Republican Proposal party in others, but steadfastly refused to pursue broader coalition-building. This alienated potential allies, who responded by passing spending measures and overturning his vetoes in Congress. The party’s prior landslide loss in Buenos Aires province—a region home to 40% of Argentina’s population—signaled waning public support as Argentines grew impatient with austerity and economic pain.
Financial markets, already jittery, reacted sharply. Investors dumped Argentine bonds and sold off the peso, which slid to a record low of 1,476 per dollar by October 20, 2025. The central bank burned through foreign currency reserves in a desperate bid to prop up the currency. It was at this moment that U.S. President Donald Trump intervened, providing a $20 billion financial and political bailout to shore up Milei’s government. The U.S. Treasury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, established a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank and hinted at further loans, while Trump promised to boost U.S. beef imports from Argentina to help both economies. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon even visited Buenos Aires for high-level meetings, according to AP.
But Trump’s intervention came with strings attached. He made clear that U.S. aid was contingent on Milei’s success in the midterms, telling supporters that the vote was "very big" and "very important." This explicit linkage transformed the limited congressional contest into a referendum on Milei’s entire presidency. The move sparked a political firestorm in both countries. In the U.S., lawmakers, farmers, and even some Trump loyalists questioned the wisdom of pouring billions into a country with a history of defaults and as a direct competitor in agricultural exports. In Argentina, Trump’s comments breathed new life into the opposition Peronist party, whose leader, former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner—currently serving a six-year sentence for corruption—urged Argentines to reject foreign interference. "Compatriots, Argentina is a country too great and dignified to depend on the whims of a foreign leader," she declared in a video message from her Buenos Aires apartment.
Public protests erupted in front of the U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires, with demonstrators banging pots and burning American flags. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over Trump’s demand—what exactly constituted a "victory" for Milei—left markets and political observers guessing. Would a modest increase in seats suffice? Did Milei need to hit a specific vote threshold, such as the 35% experts identified as key to defending his vetoes and pushing through reforms? With only some seats up for renewal, even a landslide win wouldn’t deliver a majority, further muddying the waters.
Amid the turmoil, Milei attempted to soften his image. After a stinging regional election defeat in September, he dialed back his trademark insults, reached out to provincial governors, and tried to show empathy for "vulnerable" citizens. Yet, as Gabriel Vommaro of CONICET told AFP, "Milei might strike temporary deals, push a less radical reform than he wanted, just to show he delivered. But a full 'normalisation' of Milei, or a broader coalition? I'm not sure he can, or even wants to."
The opposition, led by the Peronists—who have ruled for 17 of the past 23 years—was still regrouping from its own setbacks, including Fernández de Kirchner’s conviction. But a new centrist force, Provincias Unidas, led by several provincial governors, was poised to make a strong showing, adding yet another wrinkle to an already complex political landscape.
As the dust settles from Argentina’s high-stakes midterms, the fate of Milei’s free-market experiment remains uncertain. With economic pain biting, scandals swirling, and foreign intervention stoking nationalist sentiment, the coming months will test whether Milei can pivot from outsider disruptor to pragmatic dealmaker—or whether Argentina’s political turbulence will continue to roil markets and upend expectations.
