The 2026 election cycle is already shaping up to be a consequential one for the Midwest, as high-profile Republican contenders in both South Dakota and Iowa step forward, pledging allegiance to former President Donald Trump’s "America First" agenda. On back-to-back days in mid-September, South Dakota state Senator Casey Crabtree and Iowa U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson each launched their bids for higher office, setting the stage for heated primaries and general elections that could have ripple effects far beyond their home states.
On Monday, September 15, 2025, in Madison, South Dakota, Republican state Senator Casey Crabtree made his ambitions official: he’s running for South Dakota’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Crabtree, who has carved out a reputation as a champion for economic development and rural communities, pulled no punches about his platform. "I am the only conservative Republican in this race who has always delivered on an ‘America First,’ ‘South Dakota Always’ agenda," Crabtree told South Dakota Searchlight. He positioned himself as the candidate most closely aligned with President Trump’s policies, emphasizing his experience in energy and job creation as exactly what the former president seeks in allies heading to Washington.
Crabtree isn’t entering an empty field. The contest for the House seat—open because current U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson is running for governor—has already drawn several contenders: Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley, Democratic nonprofit executive Billy Mawhiney, Democratic former USDA employee Nikki Gronli, and Democrat Scott Schlagel, who has filed with the Federal Election Commission. The primary is slated for June 2, 2026, with the general election following on November 3.
Crabtree, who works in economic development for Heartland Energy, was appointed to the state Senate in 2020 and quickly rose to serve as majority leader in 2023 and 2024. He’s not shy about touting his legislative record, pointing to achievements like a temporary sales tax reduction, a ban on sanctuary policies for unauthorized immigrants, a tax refund to incentivize ethanol use at gas stations, a $200 million fund for housing infrastructure, and several years of frozen tuition at state universities. "When you look at that huge list of things, that is the America First agenda, and that is us delivering on that," Crabtree said.
But Crabtree’s tenure hasn’t been without controversy. He lost his leadership position after sponsoring Senate Bill 201 in 2024, which aimed to protect landowners and counties affected by a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline. The bill, which stopped short of blocking pipeline companies from using eminent domain to access land, was ultimately rejected by voters. The fallout contributed to a Republican Party rift, resulting in 14 incumbents losing their seats in the June 2024 primary. The victors in those races soon enacted a ban on eminent domain for carbon pipelines in early 2025.
Crabtree stands by his efforts. "I’ll never apologize for fighting for farmers and ranchers. It’s something that I’ve always done and I will always continue to do," he asserted to South Dakota Searchlight. He argues that the carbon pipeline project aligns with Trump’s energy dominance goals and supports the state’s vital corn ethanol industry. On trade, Crabtree defends Trump’s tariff policies, saying, "For far too long, countries like China haven’t held up their end of the deal and they hurt American businesses, American workers, and certainly hurt our family farmers. The president is the ultimate deal maker, and I’m confident that he’s going to use tariffs in the short term to negotiate better trade deals for American workers and our family farmers." On foreign policy, Crabtree is unwavering in his support: he believes Trump is "handling the [Russia-Ukraine] situation perfectly" and is actively trying to end the war, something he claims President Biden "never did."
Just across the border, Iowa’s political scene is also heating up. On Sunday, September 14, 2025, U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson officially kicked off her campaign for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat at the Radisson Hotel in Cedar Rapids. The seat is being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, and Hinson’s announcement drew a crowd of more than 150 supporters. Backed by an endorsement from President Trump, Hinson wasted no time rallying Republicans to keep Iowa under GOP control, warning that Democrats won’t "fade silently into the night."
"If we keep Iowa red, we will help make sure President Trump can have a full four years of wins and deliver results for you that will last for a generation and beyond," Hinson declared, as reported by The Des Moines Register. She took aim at Democratic figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, dismissing the opposition as lacking leadership and a coherent message. Hinson also addressed the recent assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, paying tribute to his legacy and the impact he had on conservative youth and discourse.
Hinson’s campaign is anchored in the achievements of Trump’s second term, particularly the "One Big, Beautiful Bill"—a sweeping law that extends tax cuts originally signed in 2017, eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, and significantly cuts federal Medicaid spending by an estimated $911 billion over the next decade. Hinson and Iowa’s all-Republican congressional delegation supported the measure, which Republicans are rebranding as the "Working Families Tax Cut Act." "We passed President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts. And guess what? It does exactly what it says: No more tax on tips, no more taxes on overtime. We’re protecting our seniors. Middle-class tax cuts that actually help middle-class families. Permanent tax relief for our small businesses and our family farms," Hinson said.
However, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that while the new law will boost after-tax income for the wealthiest, the bottom 10% of households could lose an average of $1,200 annually due to cuts to social programs. Hinson, for her part, has pledged to strengthen Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, while also championing border security, deportation of undocumented immigrants, support for agriculture, and opposition to allowing "men in girls’ sports." "That is who we are fighting for and we will not stop, because at heart, I’m a mama bear who refuses to stand by and allow my kids to grow up in a country run by liberals who want to ditch the American experiment and set up some kind of crazy liberal dystopia," she said.
Hinson is facing Republican primary challenges from Jim Carlin and Joshua Smith, with Democrats Jackie Norris, Josh Turek, Nathan Sage, and Bob Krause also in the race. State Sen. Zach Wahls, a Democratic contender, responded to Hinson’s criticisms on social media, challenging her to a public debate on Iowa values. Despite the competitive field, Hinson holds a significant fundraising advantage, reporting $854,000 raised in the latest quarter and $2.8 million in cash on hand. Election analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race as "likely Republican," even with the open seat.
As the 2026 primaries approach, both Crabtree and Hinson are betting that their close alignment with Trump’s policies and rhetoric will energize their bases and carry them to victory. For voters in South Dakota and Iowa, the coming months promise spirited debates over economic priorities, social issues, and the direction of the Republican Party itself.
With the Midwest’s political winds swirling, these Senate and House races are poised to offer a revealing snapshot of the region’s—and perhaps the nation’s—future political landscape.
