For the New York Mets, the 2025 Major League Baseball season has been a lesson in both the perils of optimism and the limits of patience. After another campaign that began with hope and ended in disappointment, the Mets are staring down a crossroads that could define the franchise’s trajectory for years to come. The question on every fan’s mind: Will the Mets finally abandon their habit of patching together pitching rotations with reclamation projects and instead pursue a bona fide ace? As rumors swirl around Detroit Tigers’ Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal, the answer may be closer than ever before.
Let’s rewind. Over the past two seasons, the Mets have leaned heavily on a philosophy that prizes potential bargains over proven arms. It’s a strategy that’s seen the front office, led by president of baseball operations David Stearns, sign a parade of veteran pitchers to modest one-year deals—hoping that with a little luck and a lot of coaching, they might rediscover their former glory. Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, and Paul Blackburn have all been part of this experiment. Some panned out, others fizzled, but the gamble never quite paid off when it mattered most.
The 2025 season was the tipping point. The Mets’ rotation, which had held together just enough in 2024, simply couldn’t withstand the rigors of a full campaign this time around. As the summer wore on, the cracks became impossible to ignore. Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea all struggled mightily when the pressure was highest, their collective woes contributing to the Mets missing the postseason yet again. According to Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller, "the rotation was just about indisputably the biggest reason the Mets—who are going to pay an estimated tax bill ($86.3M) greater than the Marlins’ entire 2025 payroll ($85.4M)—completely imploded."
There were, however, glimmers of hope. Rookie Nolan McLean emerged as a legitimate ace-in-the-making, with fellow youngsters Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat also making positive contributions. Clay Holmes, too, provided some stability. But as Miller put it, "if they want to rise above the mediocrity and actually win 90 games in a season for a change, they need to add at least one, possibly multiple of the six big-name arms up for grabs this winter." The names on that list—Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Shane Bieber—are all tantalizing, but none has generated as much buzz as Tarik Skubal.
Why Skubal? The 28-year-old lefty has quietly become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, posting a sparkling 2.30 ERA over 62 starts across the last two seasons and surpassing 190 innings in each campaign. He’s entering his walk year, and contract talks with the Tigers have reportedly stalled, with The New York Post noting that the two sides were more than $200 million apart last season. With extensions for other pitchers like Garrett Crochet setting the market, industry insiders now expect the Tigers to at least listen to offers for their ace this winter.
For the Mets, this is a rare opportunity—a chance to rewrite the script and finally acquire the kind of frontline starter who can anchor a playoff rotation. But the cost won’t be cheap. According to league sources cited in recent reports, Detroit could ask for two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect in return, with names like Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Jett Williams floated as potential trade chips. That’s a steep price, especially for a pitcher who, as a Scott Boras client, is unlikely to sign an extension before hitting free agency.
The Mets, of course, have one of baseball’s top-rated farm systems, a testament to their recent focus on stockpiling young talent. But as one industry source put it, "You can’t get one of baseball’s best arms by sticking to the bargain bin." The temptation to hoard prospects is strong, but with owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets and a fanbase hungry for success, the argument for going all-in has never been more compelling. After all, the last trade deadline saw the Mets part with mid-level prospects for minimal return—proof that sometimes, you have to spend what you’ve built to achieve greatness.
Yet, the decision isn’t as simple as it seems. The free-agent market this winter is thin, with only a handful of true aces available. If the Mets want to avoid overpaying or settling for lesser options, trading for Skubal—or a similarly elite arm—may be their best shot. Executives around the league have compared Skubal’s potential trade value to that of Corbin Burnes, who fetched a significant haul when dealt by the Milwaukee Brewers two winters ago. In fact, some believe Skubal could command an even higher price, given the lack of alternatives and his recent dominance.
But there are risks. Skubal is, at this point, just a rental. There’s no guarantee he would stay in Queens beyond 2026, and the prospect of surrendering multiple future stars for one year of elite pitching is enough to give any general manager pause. Mets president David Stearns has, to date, avoided trading top prospects or signing pitchers to long-term deals. The club was reportedly involved in talks for Garrett Crochet but ultimately balked at the price. Will Skubal be any different?
Some have suggested alternative targets, such as Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, who just reached a career-high 176 2/3 innings and comes with a more manageable contract. But as one executive bluntly put it, "Peralta is not as good as Skubal. Then again, who is?" The Mets are motivated to find help—and fast. Outside of McLean, every player in the farm system could be on the table in a bid to land a true ace.
It’s a philosophical crisis as much as a baseball one. Do the Mets stick to their guns, hoping that another round of pitching projects and prospect development will finally pay off? Or do they seize the moment, trading potential for proven excellence and giving themselves the best chance to compete in 2026 and beyond?
As the winter meetings approach and trade rumors heat up, one thing is clear: the Mets can no longer afford to do the same thing and expect a different result. Whether they pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal for Tarik Skubal or pivot to another big-name arm, the next few months will reveal just how far they’re willing to go to chase a championship. For Mets fans, the wait is agonizing—but the potential reward has never been greater.
With the market for elite pitching as competitive as ever and Skubal’s future hanging in the balance, all eyes are on the Mets’ front office. Will they finally bet big and break the cycle, or will another ace slip through their fingers? The answer, as always in baseball, is just a phone call away.
