The Major League Baseball offseason is heating up even before the final pitch of the World Series, and the name on everyone’s lips is Tarik Skubal. The Detroit Tigers’ left-handed ace, on the cusp of becoming the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner of the 21st century, finds himself at the center of swirling trade rumors, contract drama, and the ambitions of several of baseball’s most aggressive front offices. With just one year left before free agency, the Tigers face a franchise-defining decision: extend, trade, or go all-in for a championship run with their superstar hurler.
Skubal’s value has never been higher. Fresh off a Cy Young-winning 2024 campaign and a dominant follow-up season, he’s under team control through 2026 but has already rejected a four-year extension offer from the Tigers worth between $80 million and $100 million. According to multiple reports, Skubal, represented by the ever-astute Scott Boras, is seeking a deal that could approach or even shatter the $400 million mark—a figure that would reset the market for starting pitchers. That’s a number the Tigers, under owner Christopher Ilitch, have never come close to offering. Since Ilitch took over in 2017, Detroit’s richest pitching contract was a five-year, $77 million pact for Eduardo Rodríguez. There’s a Grand Canyon-sized gap between what the Tigers are comfortable paying and what Skubal expects, and it’s no secret around the league.
“The Tigers must commit to doing something,” wrote Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, outlining the three paths forward: extend Skubal, trade him, or try to win with him in 2026. The extension scenario seems the least likely. Skubal turned down a deal that would’ve covered his final two arbitration years and his first two free agency seasons, and with Boras steering the ship, the lefty is poised to test the open market. “If it’s $400 million over nine years, Skubal would shatter two contract records for pitchers,” Petzold noted, referencing the total value set by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the average annual value record held by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
That leaves the Tigers with two more realistic options: trade Skubal now and maximize their return, or double down and try to win a championship before he departs. The trade market is already buzzing, with the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays emerging as primary suitors. For the Blue Jays, the appeal is obvious. Despite having quality arms in Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, Toronto lacks a true ace—the kind of pitcher who can dominate in October. The Sporting News reports that the Jays are “in search of an ace, and their front office has shown a willingness to make big swings and go all-in on players that they like.” But the cost would be steep. Toronto’s farm system doesn’t have the depth of some rivals, so a package might have to include top young arm Trey Yesavage, among others.
The Mets, meanwhile, are in a different position. Owner Steve Cohen, never one to shy away from a blockbuster, is under pressure after an 83-79 season that fell short of expectations. His post-season apology to fans signaled a commitment to bold moves. “Acquiring Skubal could be the defining move of his ownership—one that transforms a rotation built on promise into one built on dominance,” observed Empire Sports Media. The Mets have both the financial muscle and the prospect depth to make a compelling offer. According to SNY’s John Harper, catcher Francisco Alvarez could be the centerpiece of a Skubal trade. “Other than pitching, Alvarez could be the key,” a rival executive told Harper. “It depends how the Tigers’ scouts evaluate him. He showed some growth after the Mets sent him to Triple-A, but is he still a 30-home run guy as projected? As a catcher, that would make him a difference-maker and something to help justify the trade from a PR standpoint.”
Alvarez, once baseball’s consensus No. 1 prospect, battled through injuries in 2025 but still slugged 11 home runs with a 124 wRC+ in just 76 games. He’s only 24 and under team control for three more seasons, but the Tigers already have a defensive standout in Dillon Dingler behind the plate. Would Detroit be willing to build a deal around another young catcher? That’s one of the many questions front offices are weighing as the offseason approaches.
The Mets’ potential offer doesn’t end with Alvarez. Names like Brett Baty, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes have surfaced as possible big-league inclusions, while prospects such as Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, Ryan Clifford, and Carson Benge have all been mentioned by scouts. “It has to be some combination of those players,” one scout explained, pointing out that Detroit will want both immediate contributors and high-upside arms to headline any return. The Tigers’ asking price is reportedly two top-100 prospects, including at least one in the top 30, reminiscent of the package the Brewers received for Corbin Burnes last winter.
Of course, trading Skubal isn’t without risk for Detroit. He’s the kind of ace who can anchor a playoff rotation, and the Tigers have reached the ALDS in each of the past two seasons, only to fall short in Game 5 both times. If they keep Skubal for 2026 and make a serious run—perhaps by adding free agents like Alex Bregman and Dylan Cease, promoting top prospect Kevin McGonigle, or swinging a deal for Boston’s Jarren Duran—they could maximize their window before Skubal inevitably hits free agency. Should he leave, the Tigers would extend a qualifying offer worth $22-23 million, securing a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere. It’s not a total loss, but it’s a far cry from the haul a trade could bring this winter.
As the World Series looms and front offices plot their next moves, the Skubal sweepstakes are shaping up to be the defining story of the MLB offseason. Will the Tigers set a firm price and hope for a bidding war? Will Steve Cohen’s Mets or the win-now Blue Jays step up with the right combination of prospects and big-league talent? Or will Detroit roll the dice, try to win it all in 2026, and risk losing their ace for only a draft pick in return?
One thing’s for sure: the Tigers can’t afford to stand still. As the trade winds blow and the rumor mill churns, the baseball world waits for Detroit’s next move—and Tarik Skubal’s future hangs in the balance.
