Daniil Medvedev is back in the tennis spotlight, and this time, it’s not just for his signature baseline wizardry or his quirky on-court antics. After a long stretch without a title, Medvedev’s resurgence has become the talk of the ATP Tour, and his latest exploits at the Vienna Open are giving fans and pundits plenty to discuss. But how did he get here, and what’s fueling this latest hot streak?
On October 22, 2025, Medvedev, seeded No. 6 and ranked No. 14 in the world, overcame a stern test from Portugal’s Nuno Borges at the Wiener Stadthalle. The Russian prevailed 6-4, 6-7(7), 6-2 in a match that showcased both his resilience and tactical versatility. The victory sent Medvedev into the second round of the Vienna ATP 500 tournament, where a familiar foe awaited: Corentin Moutet, the very player Medvedev had beaten just days earlier in the Almaty Open final.
That win in Kazakhstan was more than just another trophy for the Russian. It snapped a 29-month title drought, stretching back to his triumph at the Italian Open in 2023. Since then, Medvedev had endured a rollercoaster of form, coaching changes, and even some physical setbacks. But at 29 years old, with a new coach in Thomas Johansson and a renewed sense of purpose, Medvedev seems to be finding his groove again.
“He is a master of his craft, at what he does on the court,” said former Wimbledon semifinalist John Isner on the Nothing Major podcast. Still, Isner voiced concerns about Medvedev’s physical durability, especially as the Russian’s game relies heavily on grinding rallies from far behind the baseline. “It just seems like he has a lot of miles on his body. He is a skinny guy. He could be susceptible to a breakdown. I hope I am totally wrong, I love Daniil and he’s an incredible player. But the ability for him to change his game style I don’t think is there.”
Jack Sock, another former top 10 player, countered Isner’s worries about injury but echoed concerns about Medvedev’s style keeping pace with the next generation. “His body can probably hold up. I’m sure he does the best of the best to stay healthy and stay fit always. But at some point, even Novak, I feel like he is much older but trying to play more aggressive and keep up with the play style and the fast paced tennis these days, with Daniil I don’t know if he’ll be able to stay eight feet behind the baseline and out grind Alcaraz and Sinner and Fritz.”
Despite the doubters, Medvedev’s recent results speak for themselves. Since splitting with his longtime coach Gilles Cervara, Medvedev has lost just three matches since the US Open and is currently riding a five-match winning streak—the first time he’s managed that since his run to the Wimbledon semifinals in 2024. Back then, he knocked off the likes of Aleksandar Kovacevic, Alexandre Müller, Jan-Lennard Struff, Grigor Dimitrov, and Jannik Sinner before falling to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. It’s been a long 15 months since Medvedev last strung together this many victories, and the tennis world is taking notice.
His path in Vienna is anything but straightforward. The ATP 500 event, with a prize pool of EUR 2,736,875, is packed with talent. Medvedev’s looming second-round clash with Corentin Moutet is a replay of their Almaty Open final, which Medvedev won just last Sunday. Moutet, for his part, is no pushover—he breezed past Damir Dzumhur 6-3, 6-0 in his own first-round match and will be eager for revenge.
Looking ahead, if Medvedev gets past Moutet, he could face Lorenzo Musetti, the Italian currently holding the last qualifying spot for the ATP Finals in Turin. Musetti’s own Vienna campaign started with a straight-sets win over Hamad Medjedovic, but a poor showing in Antwerp has put his Turin hopes under pressure. Should Medvedev advance further, Alexander Zverev could await in the semifinals—a familiar foe whom Medvedev has beaten twice this year, including in Halle and Beijing. And if the stars align, a final showdown with Jannik Sinner, one of the hottest young talents on tour, could cap off Medvedev’s Vienna adventure.
The stakes are high. Medvedev, currently ranked World No. 13, is still in the hunt for a spot at the ATP Finals in Turin, with just a couple of tournaments left before the season-ending spectacle. Every win counts, and a deep run in Vienna could be just what he needs to punch his ticket to Italy.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The next obstacle is Moutet, and the numbers suggest Medvedev is favored, but not overwhelmingly so. According to Dimers’ advanced tennis model, Medvedev has a 64% chance of beating Moutet and a 63% shot at taking the first set. The betting odds at the time of publication reflect this, with Medvedev at -227 on the moneyline and Moutet at +182. There’s also a 53% chance that Moutet will cover the +3.5 games spread, and a 51% probability for under 22.5 total games—so it’s not exactly a slam dunk for the Russian.
The Vienna Open is already serving up drama, with big names like Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Lorenzo Musetti advancing in their own first-round matches. Medvedev’s section of the draw is stacked, and every round feels like a mini-final. The Russian’s renewed confidence, tactical tweaks under Johansson, and recent top-10 scalps have made him a dangerous floater in any draw.
Still, questions linger. Can Medvedev’s body hold up through the back end of a grueling season? Will his deep-court positioning and counterpunching style continue to pay dividends against the new wave of aggressive, athletic stars? And, perhaps most importantly, can he ride this wave of momentum all the way to Turin?
For now, Medvedev’s fans have reason to be optimistic. He’s healthy (for the moment), winning, and brimming with the kind of self-belief that once made him world number one. His five-match win streak is a testament to his resilience, and with the Vienna Open heating up, all eyes will be on his showdown with Moutet. If he keeps this up, Medvedev could be the comeback story of the ATP’s closing months.
As the Vienna Open marches on, Medvedev stands on the cusp of something special—another title, a spot in Turin, and perhaps a reminder to the tennis world that he’s far from finished. The next chapter unfolds Thursday morning, and it’s anyone’s guess how far this run will take him.
