The political landscape in the Philippines is heating up as the once-formidable alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte unravels in dramatic fashion, just months before the critical 2025 midterm elections. What began as a partnership of convenience that swept the 2022 elections has now dissolved into a bitter feud, with both camps trading barbs and accusations that threaten to reshape the country’s power structure for years to come.
The latest chapter in this saga unfolded after Vice President Duterte, in a candid interview from the Netherlands, revisited the circumstances of her June 2024 resignation as Education Secretary. She made headlines by alleging that President Marcos smelled of alcohol during their meeting that day, an incident she claims cemented her decision to step down. "By 10:30 in the morning, he already smelled of alcohol," Duterte said, pointedly adding, "That convinced me I was not the failure—maybe the failure was someone who comes to work like that." According to The Chronicle, Duterte’s remarks are widely seen as part of a broader effort to draw a sharp contrast between her leadership style and that of the president, as she seeks to shore up her political base ahead of next year’s polls.
The response from Malacañang was swift and unyielding. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro dismissed Duterte’s claims as "fabricated propaganda" crafted to undermine the president’s authority. "These stories are being made up to weaken the president’s leadership," Castro stated. "Her real goal is clear: to position herself for power." The Palace did not stop at refuting the alcohol allegation. Castro launched a blistering critique of Duterte’s record at the Department of Education, citing the delayed distribution of 1.5 million laptops and learning devices dating back to 2020, a P100-million "ghost student" voucher scam, and a lack of sector expertise as evidence of mismanagement. "She admitted herself she could not even review the Matatag curriculum," Castro added. "And while millions of students could have benefitted from resources, they were neglected under her watch."
This escalating war of words underscores the total collapse of the Marcos-Duterte alliance, which had previously dominated the political scene under the "Uniteam" banner. The timing is no coincidence. With the 2025 midterm elections looming, both the Marcos and Duterte camps are expected to field rival slates, setting the stage for a fierce showdown that could fracture their former coalition and redraw the lines of political loyalty across the country.
Adding to the intrigue, the administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas recently kicked off its Mindanao campaign with a high-profile proclamation rally in Carmen, Davao del Norte—a province long dubbed "Duterte country" by political analysts. The event, held on August 16, 2025, attracted significant attention not only for its location but also for its symbolism. Special Assistant to the President Antonio Lagdameo Jr. was quick to frame the rally as a demonstration of unity, not a political maneuver. "It was a display of how democracy works, how decade-long friendships have been rekindled with the people. It was a demonstration of how people have the right to move and express their sentiments. I wouldn't call it a show of force," Lagdameo said, as reported by Philippine Star.
Davao del Norte’s significance cannot be overstated. In the 2022 elections, the province delivered a landslide victory for Marcos, who, with Duterte as his running mate, secured 81 percent of the local vote—470,000 out of 577,781 ballots cast. The rally in Carmen was widely interpreted as an attempt by the Marcos camp to rekindle alliances with key political figures in the province, echoing the close ties that existed during the era of the president’s late father. "Politics has always been there since I was born. Friendship has been nurtured and never compromised. Development is spreading, and the people are reaping the benefits," Lagdameo remarked, emphasizing the administration’s focus on continuity and progress.
The Alyansa’s senatorial slate, unveiled at the rally, features a mix of established names and political heavyweights: Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, Imee Marcos, Lito Lapid, Bong and Francis Tolentino, former senators Manny Pacquiao, Tito Sotto, and Ping Lacson, Deputy Speaker Camille Villar, ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo, former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos, and Makati City Mayor Abby Binay. Their campaign is set to intensify with a massive rally scheduled for August 26, 2025, in Pasay City, as the administration seeks to solidify its hold on the Senate and maintain legislative momentum.
Yet, beneath the surface of these campaign events lies an unmistakable sense of uncertainty. Political analysts warn that the split between Marcos and Duterte could have far-reaching consequences, not only for the outcome of the midterms but also for the stability of the administration itself. The vice president, buoyed by her father’s enduring political machinery, is widely seen as a formidable rival to the president’s influence in Congress and beyond. For Marcos, neutralizing Duterte’s criticisms and consolidating his support base are crucial to safeguarding his agenda and protecting his allies in the upcoming elections.
At stake is more than just control of the Senate or the composition of Congress. The 2025 midterms are shaping up as a litmus test for both camps—a referendum on leadership, credibility, and the future direction of the Philippines. If the rift continues to widen, it could upend the balance of power and set the stage for an even more contentious contest in 2028, when the presidency itself will once again be up for grabs.
For now, the political theater plays on, with each side seeking to frame the narrative to its advantage. The Marcos camp, through public rallies and official statements, projects an image of unity and progress, while the Duterte bloc sharpens its criticisms and positions itself as the alternative. As the country edges closer to the 2025 elections, Filipinos are left to sift through the noise, weigh the competing claims, and decide which vision of leadership they believe will best serve their future.
In a nation where political alliances are often fleeting and loyalties can shift overnight, the unfolding drama between Marcos and Duterte is a potent reminder that, in the Philippines, the only constant is change.
