With less than a month until New York City elects its next mayor, the race has become a lightning rod for national debates over identity, international politics, and the city’s own future. Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist lawmaker from Queens, stands at the center of this storm, maintaining a double-digit lead in the polls—but not without controversy nipping at his heels and rivals closing in.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted from October 3 to 7, Mamdani is ahead with 46% support among likely voters. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary, trails at 33%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa holds steady at 15%. The poll, released after incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race, shows Cuomo climbing from his September standing, when he held just 23% to Mamdani’s 45%. "The numbers changed, but the contours of the race haven't," Quinnipiac Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow told Fox News, noting that Cuomo absorbed much of Adams’ former support but Mamdani’s frontrunner status remains intact.
Mamdani’s base is broad and energized. The poll shows his strongest support among Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), and those aged 18 to 49 (60-62%). Ninety percent of his supporters say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic—a figure that dwarfs the enthusiasm for Cuomo (69%) and Sliwa (85%). If victorious, Mamdani would be the first Muslim and first millennial to lead the nation’s largest city, a milestone that’s not lost on his campaign or the city’s diverse electorate.
But the campaign has not been without turbulence. In late June, just days before the Democratic primary, Mamdani appeared on "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert" alongside city comptroller Brad Lander. The New Yorker reported that producers, responding to a letter from prominent pro-Israel figures, proposed a "thumbs-up or thumbs-down" game segment about Hamas and a Palestinian state. The idea was scrapped before airing, but the incident left Mamdani shaken. "I just couldn’t believe what was happening," he told The New Yorker. "That a genocide could be distilled into a late-night game." Six minutes of the 21-minute interview focused on his views on Israel and the criticism he’s faced from pro-Israel New Yorkers, as well as tensions between Jewish and Muslim communities in the city.
Colbert pressed both Lander and Mamdani on whether Israel has a right to exist. Mamdani replied, "Yes, like all nations, I believe it has a right to exist and a responsibility, also, to uphold international law." He later described to The New Yorker how the relentless focus on this question left him feeling besieged, a sentiment echoed by a prominent Muslim leader who called the repeated questioning a form of Islamophobia. During the interview, Mamdani also addressed the rise in antisemitism, proposing to increase funding for anti-hate crime programming by 800% as part of his Department of Community Safety initiative. When Colbert asked if there was any justification for violence, Mamdani responded simply, "No."
These positions have drawn both praise and criticism. Mamdani’s outspoken criticism of Israel and his progressive platform—fare-free buses, tuition-free CUNY, rent freezes, free childcare, and government-run grocery stores—have energized the city’s left but left him vulnerable to attacks from the center and right. According to The Guardian and JTA, some Jewish New Yorkers remain skeptical of his stance on Israel. Yet, Mamdani has made overtures to bridge divides. On October 9, he visited the sukkahs of Orthodox Jewish leaders in Williamsburg, including Rabbi Moishe Indig of the Satmar Hasidic community. Indig called Mamdani "a friend of the Jewish people" and congratulated him on "becoming the mayor of New York City." This endorsement marks a significant shift, as the Satmar community had previously backed Cuomo before the June primary. The Satmar, known for their religious anti-Zionism and non-recognition of the state of Israel, present a nuanced perspective within the city’s Jewish electorate.
Still, Mamdani’s campaign has not been immune to controversy. In July, a photo resurfaced showing him with Uganda’s Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga, a key architect of the country’s draconian anti-LGBT laws. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda, said the photo was impromptu and that he was unaware of Kadaga’s role in promoting legislation that includes life imprisonment for gay people. The meeting took place while Mamdani was in Uganda for his wedding. Critics, including former Governor Cuomo and longtime gay activist Chris Lynn, have called on Mamdani to renounce his Ugandan citizenship. "Why doesn’t he renounce his Uganda citizenship?" Lynn asked, citing the country’s harsh anti-homosexuality laws, some of which remain despite the constitutional court striking down mandatory reporting requirements in 2024.
Cuomo, who has re-emerged as a general election candidate after losing to Mamdani in the primary, used the controversy to question Mamdani’s commitment to human rights. "If you have such moral indignation against human rights violations all around the globe, you are quick to criticize everyone... but you are a citizen of Uganda, running for mayor. Why wouldn’t you say, ‘I am going to give up my citizenship?’" Cuomo said at a press conference on October 6. Mamdani’s spokesperson, Dora Pekec, sidestepped the citizenship issue, instead blasting Cuomo for what she called political opportunism and highlighting Mamdani’s "comprehensive plan to protect LGBTQ New Yorkers."
The race’s financial dimension has also intensified. On October 9, the New York City Campaign Finance Board awarded Cuomo’s campaign $2.3 million in public matching funds, a significant boost as he attempts to close the gap. Mamdani, who halted fundraising in early September after hitting the $8 million spending cap, received $1 million, while Sliwa got $1.1 million. Despite these influxes, Mamdani’s campaign remains powered by grassroots enthusiasm and endorsements from progressive icons like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Public opinion on key issues remains divided. The Quinnipiac poll found that 41% of likely voters align with Mamdani’s views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa. Sympathy for Palestinians (43%) outpaces that for Israelis (22%). Yet, Mamdani’s pledge to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York is more controversial, with 43% of likely voters opposing the idea and 38% supporting it.
As Election Day approaches, the city’s political landscape is in flux. Mamdani’s lead is real, but so are the challenges—a shifting electorate, energized opposition, and a relentless spotlight on his identity and positions. The outcome will not only determine who leads New York City, but also signal the direction of urban politics in an era defined by both division and possibility.
