The race for New York City’s highest office is reaching its dramatic final act, as the three leading candidates—Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa—prepare to face off in their last debate before voters head to the polls. The debate, scheduled for 7 p.m. Eastern Time on October 22, 2025, at LaGuardia Community College in Long Island City, is set to be a pivotal moment in a campaign defined by fierce rhetoric, shifting alliances, and a city at a crossroads.
Hosted by Spectrum News NY1 in partnership with New York Public Radio and The City, and moderated by Errol Louis, Brian Lehrer, and Katie Honan, the 90-minute debate is the final opportunity for candidates to make their case before early voting begins and the city’s November 4 election day. According to TNND, the debate will be broadcast live, ensuring that every word and gesture is scrutinized by a public eager for answers on the issues that matter most: affordability, public safety, and the future direction of New York.
At the center of the race is Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate and current Assembly Member for District 36. Mamdani has surged ahead in polls, holding a double-digit lead over his rivals. His campaign is built on a promise to tackle the city’s affordability crisis head-on. "I’m proud to say that I, yes, will freeze the rent for more than two million rent-stabilized tenants, and I will also build 200,000 truly affordable homes across the five boroughs over the next 10 years to ensure that tenants, whether rent-stabilized or market-rate, can actually have more housing, such that they are not being priced out of this city," Mamdani declared during the first debate, as reported by TNND.
For Mamdani, the path to victory appears straightforward—avoid mistakes and let his lead carry him over the finish line. Political insiders quoted by The New York Post suggest that “as long as he stays upright for 90 minutes,” Mamdani is likely to become the city’s next mayor. Democratic operative Alyssa Cass put it even more bluntly: "If Mamdani can avoid literally self-immolating on stage, he will be mayor."
Yet, the race is far from settled. A recent poll conducted by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics between October 14 and 15, 2025, reveals an electorate still in flux. Mamdani leads with 43.2% support, followed by Cuomo at 28.9% and Sliwa at 19.4%. However, 8.4% of voters remain undecided or prefer another candidate. The poll also highlights a crucial dynamic: nearly 80% of undecided voters are aged 50 or older, with 49% of those 65 and up still making up their minds. As Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, explained, "Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city. Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction."
Andrew Cuomo, the embattled former governor running as an independent, sees opportunity in these numbers. With Mayor Eric Adams’s withdrawal from the race, much of Adams’s support has shifted to Cuomo, giving him a late boost. In a head-to-head scenario against Mamdani, the poll shows Cuomo trailing by just 3.9 points—44.6% to 40.7%—well within the survey’s ±4.0 percentage point margin of error. Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics, noted, "The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City."
Despite this glimmer of hope, Cuomo faces an uphill battle—not least because of the presence of Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee. Sliwa, who founded the Guardian Angels in 1979, has made public safety the cornerstone of his campaign. "I created the Guardian Angels to provide public safety in the subways and streets when government was incapable of doing so," Sliwa said in last week’s debate, as reported by TNND. "I didn't do it to get a title or a paycheck."
The dynamic between Cuomo and Sliwa has become a subplot of its own. According to The New York Post, Cuomo has pushed hard for Sliwa to drop out and consolidate opposition to Mamdani, but Sliwa remains defiant. The Republican is expected to use the debate stage to attack Cuomo, potentially fracturing the anti-Mamdani vote further. Democratic strategist Ken Frydman observed, "Unfortunately, Curtis will again muck up the works."
Pundits agree that only a dramatic, last-minute alliance between Cuomo and Sliwa—an unlikely prospect—could significantly dent Mamdani’s commanding lead. “Ideally, Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa need to get Mamdani off his game a bit,” said Democratic operative Ross Wallenstein. “Rile him up. Get him angry. Have him show his true colors on an issue. But really, the only thing Cuomo and Sliwa could do is one of them should drop out. On stage, one of them should selflessly urge their supporters to vote for the other one in order to save New York City from a Mamdani administration.” Yet, as Wallenstein and others note, such a scenario is as improbable as a fairytale.
For voters, especially those over 50, the stakes are high. The AARP/Gotham poll found that cost of living remains the dominant concern for nearly two-thirds of respondents, followed by public safety and housing affordability. These issues have only grown in importance as the city grapples with rising expenses and an uncertain future. While optimism about New York’s future has ticked up slightly, the share of voters saying the city is on the “wrong track” has also increased, from 52.7% in August to 55.7% in October.
With early voting set to begin just three days after the debate, all eyes are on the candidates’ final performances. Will Cuomo and Sliwa find a way to shake Mamdani’s confidence or split the vote to their advantage? Or will Mamdani’s steady hand and focus on affordability carry the day? As the city’s most reliable voters—those aged 50 and up—prepare to make their decisions, the outcome remains uncertain, and the future of New York hangs in the balance.
Whatever happens on debate night, one thing is clear: the next mayor of New York City will need to address the urgent concerns of affordability, public safety, and leadership, with an electorate keenly aware of what’s at stake. The city waits, watches, and wonders what kind of leader will emerge from this fiercely contested race.
