Malawi is on the edge of political uncertainty after a fiercely contested presidential election left the nation facing the real prospect of a historic run-off. As Malawians cast their ballots on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, anticipation was high, and the outcome was anything but clear. By week’s end, both President Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera and his main challenger, former President Arthur Peter Mutharika, had prematurely claimed victory—despite the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) having yet to announce official results, according to the Associated Press and the BBC.
It’s a nail-biting scenario. Projections from party tally centers, observers, and independent monitors all point to a razor-thin contest. President Chakwera is polling between 47 and 49 percent, while Mutharika is hovering around 43 to 45 percent. Neither is on track to hit the all-important 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win, as first reported by local analysts and echoed in international coverage from the BBC and AP. If these numbers hold, Malawians will have to return to the polls for a run-off within the next 60 days—a first in the country’s history under the current electoral rules.
“Malawians will vote again, that is a fact. The two top candidates must brace themselves for another grueling campaign trail over the next 60 days. Their strength has become almost equal in this election,” said John Makwenda, a political scientist with experience at the Catholic University of Malawi and other regional institutions, as cited by local media. His warning was clear: both parties should avoid premature celebrations, which only risk undermining public trust and exposing their unreadiness to accept the final outcome.
The premature declarations of victory by both the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have only heightened tensions. According to the BBC, the head of Malawi’s electoral commission, Annabel Mtalimanja, issued a pointed rebuke: “We urge all stakeholders to exercise patience. Results will only be released after every vote has been verified to safeguard the credibility of the process.” She emphasized that only the commission is empowered to declare outcomes, reminding everyone of the lessons from the past.
This election’s stakes go far beyond the presidency. Malawians also voted in parliamentary and local elections, but the presidential race has dominated headlines. Chakwera, 70, is seeking a second term after his landmark victory in the 2020 re-run, when he secured 58 percent of the vote under the new 50%+1 rule. Mutharika, now 85, is attempting a dramatic political comeback, having been unseated by Chakwera in that very contest. Their rivalry is not just personal—it’s emblematic of Malawi’s broader struggle for democratic stability.
Memories of the disputed 2019 election, which was annulled by the Constitutional Court due to widespread irregularities, loom large. The court’s decision then was unprecedented in Malawi’s history and set a new standard for electoral integrity. Chakwera’s subsequent landslide in the 2020 re-run was hailed as a turning point. But as nearly all ballots in this year’s vote have reportedly been counted (though not yet certified), the specter of controversy remains. The BBC and AP both report that the commission will only announce results after every vote is tallied and verified, a move designed to prevent any repeat of past disputes.
For ordinary Malawians, the drama of the vote is set against a backdrop of economic hardship. The campaign season was overshadowed by a worsening economic crisis: inflation has soared to nearly 30%, fuel shortages are commonplace, and foreign currency reserves have dwindled. In the capital, Lilongwe, a frozen chicken now costs about $20—a staggering price in a country where most people survive on less than $2 a day, as reported by the BBC. The daily realities of hardship have sharpened the political stakes, making the outcome of this election even more consequential.
Despite the tension, the process has so far remained largely peaceful, though the atmosphere is undeniably charged. Both Chakwera’s MCP and Mutharika’s DPP have strong, passionate followings. The premature declarations of victory on Thursday, September 18, 2025, drew swift condemnation from the MEC. “The two parties are wrong. Celebrating immaturely only exposes their unreadiness to accept the outcome. They should avoid taking such a dangerous path before the Malawi Electoral Commission declares the official results,” Makwenda cautioned, as quoted in local reports.
The rules are clear: a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no one does, a run-off is mandated—a process that could further test the resilience of Malawi’s young democracy. This would be the first time the country has faced a presidential run-off since the 50%+1 rule was introduced in 2020. For many, the prospect of returning to the polls is daunting, but it’s also a testament to the country’s commitment to democratic norms, even under strain.
The political uncertainty has left citizens anxious. “For many Malawians, the wait for results is not just about who governs but whether the process itself will stand as a credible marker of the country’s fragile democracy,” observed a BBC Africa correspondent. The lessons of 2019 remain fresh, and the need for patience and respect for due process is at the forefront of public discourse.
Chakwera’s victory in 2020 was seen as a triumph for reform and a rebuke of electoral malpractice. Mutharika’s supporters, however, remain deeply loyal and see his potential return as a chance to restore what they view as lost progress. Both sides accuse the other of undermining the democratic process, and both have much at stake—not just politically, but personally.
As the nation waits for the official announcement, all eyes are on the MEC. The commission’s insistence on thorough verification is intended to bolster confidence in the result, but it also prolongs the suspense. The hope, shared by many, is that whichever way the final numbers fall, Malawi’s leaders and their supporters will put country before party and accept the outcome peacefully.
In a country grappling with economic woes and the legacy of disputed elections, the coming days will be crucial. Whether Malawians are indeed heading for a run-off or if a surprise majority emerges, the process itself is a test of the nation’s democratic maturity. As the dust settles, one thing is certain: Malawi’s political future hangs in the balance, and its citizens are watching—anxiously, but with hope—for the next chapter to unfold.
