Venezuela and the United States are once again locked in a dangerous standoff, with tensions escalating to heights not seen in years. Over the past month, a series of dramatic moves by both governments has set the stage for a potential confrontation, raising alarms across Latin America and beyond. At the center of the storm: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration’s increasingly aggressive posturing, and the specter of military conflict in the Caribbean.
On September 29, 2025, President Maduro signed a sweeping decree granting himself expanded security powers in the event of a U.S. military attack. The move, announced by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, would allow Maduro to mobilize the Bolivarian National Armed Forces nationwide and give the military direct control over public services and Venezuela’s vital oil industry. According to Sky News, these powers are valid for 90 days, with the option to renew for another 90 days under the Venezuelan constitution.
Maduro’s decree is not merely symbolic. In a televised address, he explained that the government had begun a “consultation process” to declare “a state of external unrest, in accordance with the Constitution, and to protect our people, our peace, and our stability… should Venezuela be attacked by the US empire, militarily attacked.” This declaration, as CNN reported, would also allow the president to close land, sea, and air borders, and activate economic, political, and social plans to guarantee national security. Rodríguez emphasized that the measure “seeks to protect the territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence, and vital strategic interests of our republic against any serious violation or external aggression that may have occurred against our territory.”
The context for these extraordinary steps is a rapidly intensifying U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. Over recent weeks, the Trump administration has deployed amphibious vessels, ships loaded with guided missile systems, a nuclear-powered submarine, and ten F-35 stealth fighter jets to Puerto Rico, according to The New York Times. The White House claims these moves are aimed at combating drug trafficking, which it alleges is orchestrated by Maduro’s government. U.S. forces have destroyed at least three boats, killing more than a dozen people on board—strikes that U.N. officials have described as possible extrajudicial executions.
Yet, the justification for such a large-scale mobilization is widely disputed. The Drug Enforcement Administration has stated that Venezuela is not a major supplier of cocaine or fentanyl to the United States. Nevertheless, President Trump has doubled down, recently increasing the bounty for Maduro’s arrest to $50 million and labeling him “one of the largest narcotraffickers in the world and a threat to our national security,” as quoted by Attorney General Pam Bondi in The New York Times.
For its part, the Venezuelan government has responded with its own show of force. Military drills have become a regular occurrence, with the armed forces and volunteer militia members training together in cities and neighborhoods across the country. Russian-made fighter jets have been displayed in the skies, and hundreds of militia members recently paraded through Caracas in what Maduro described as the “unification of an empowered people,” according to CNN. In coastal areas, even fishermen have joined the mobilization, participating in protests and registering for militia training. One fisherman, Carlos Caravallo, told CNN, “I don’t know how prepared they are for a missile, but what I can say is that there are people who are organizing.”
The U.S. campaign isn’t limited to military maneuvers. This latest standoff follows years of economic sanctions and political pressure. Back in 2019, the Trump administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president and urged the military to defect. When that approach failed, the opposition’s shadow government dissolved, and Guaidó relocated to Florida. Now, the administration’s focus has shifted to what it calls a “narcostate,” with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and hard-liners reportedly pushing for regime change through intimidation and, if necessary, force.
Opposition figures like María Corina Machado, who was blocked from running in the 2024 elections, have continued to call for international intervention. Machado, with close ties to Rubio, has kept up her advocacy even after going into hiding. According to The New York Times, her silence regarding the U.S. strikes that killed Venezuelan civilians has damaged the opposition’s credibility at home and abroad.
Despite the saber-rattling, both sides have made gestures—however small—toward dialogue. Days after the first U.S. boat strike, Maduro sent a letter to President Trump denying any involvement in drug trafficking and offering to engage in direct talks with special envoy Richard Grenell. The White House confirmed receipt of the letter but maintained that its stance on Venezuela “has not changed.” Maduro, for his part, has insisted that he wants the relationship with the United States to be “historic and peaceful,” as reported by Sky News. However, he continues to accuse the Trump administration of plotting to oust him.
Analysts warn that the risks of escalation are real and growing. According to The New York Times, the U.S. military is reportedly considering deploying drones to strike drug-related targets inside Venezuela. While the thousands of American troops floating off Venezuelan shores are unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion, the continued strikes and military buildup send a clear message to Maduro and his supporters: regime change remains a central U.S. objective.
Neighboring countries are watching nervously. Democratic governments in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia have so far refrained from defending Maduro, whose authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement have triggered a humanitarian crisis and driven roughly eight million Venezuelans to flee since 2013. But regional leaders would almost certainly oppose a direct U.S. military intervention, fearing a breach of territorial sovereignty and the potential for widespread chaos.
Public opinion in the United States, too, is far from unanimous. A YouGov survey cited by The New York Times found that more than half of Americans oppose using military force to invade Venezuela. Critics argue that the resources devoted to the Caribbean deployment are badly needed elsewhere and warn that continued U.S. strikes risk killing innocent bystanders, potentially provoking stronger condemnation from other countries in the region.
As the situation stands, both Washington and Caracas appear unwilling to back down. Maduro’s decree, now in effect, gives him sweeping powers to defend against what he calls “external aggression.” The Trump administration, meanwhile, shows no sign of abandoning its pressure campaign. With military assets amassed on both sides and diplomatic channels strained, the world is left to hope that cooler heads prevail before rhetoric turns into open conflict.
For now, Venezuela’s fate hangs in the balance—caught between the ambitions of rival leaders, the calculations of regional powers, and the ever-present risk that one misstep could ignite a crisis with consequences far beyond its borders.
