Madagascar has been thrust into the international spotlight after a dramatic military coup toppled President Andry Rajoelina, following weeks of mounting unrest and a contentious impeachment process. The unfolding events, which reached a fever pitch on October 14, 2024, have left the country’s future hanging in the balance, with both hope and uncertainty swirling in the air.
According to France24 and Tempo.co, the elite military unit known as CAPSAT announced late Tuesday evening that it had seized control of the government. This declaration came just hours after the National Assembly voted overwhelmingly to impeach President Rajoelina—a decision that was as stunning as it was swift. With 30 votes in favor and only one abstention, the Assembly’s move was bolstered by members of Rajoelina’s own party, IRMAR, who joined the majority in calling for his removal. The next step, as outlined by the country’s constitution, is for the Constitutional Court to formally approve the impeachment.
The military’s intervention was not entirely unexpected. CAPSAT, the same unit that helped Rajoelina rise to power in a 2009 coup, justified its actions by pointing to what it called a “power vacuum” at the top of government. In a public address outside the presidential palace in Antananarivo, CAPSAT leaders announced not only that they had taken control, but also that they were suspending the constitution and dissolving Madagascar’s major state institutions—including the highest court, the electoral commission, and the Senate. The National Assembly, however, was left intact, perhaps a nod to the legitimacy of the impeachment vote that had just transpired.
“There is a power vacuum. The solution is not revenge, neither confusion, but a peaceful, inclusive and responsible transition,” said former president and opposition leader Marc Ravalomanana, as quoted by Tempo.co. Ravalomanana, who himself was ousted by Rajoelina in the 2009 coup, urged all sides to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and instead focus on unity and reconciliation.
CAPSAT’s leaders laid out a roadmap for the coming months. They pledged to form a transitional government that would include civilian representatives and last no more than two years. During this period, the transitional authorities plan to organize a national referendum on a new constitution and the creation of new state institutions, hoping to steer Madagascar toward a more stable future.
The roots of this crisis stretch back to the spring and summer of 2024, when youth-led protests erupted across the capital and other cities. Initially, demonstrators were angry over the government’s persistent failure to provide reliable water and electricity—basic necessities that had become unreliable for many Malagasy citizens. But as the weeks wore on, the protests grew larger and more impassioned, evolving into a broader movement against corruption, mismanagement, and a lack of political accountability.
As reported by France24, the government’s response to these protests was heavy-handed at first, but it soon became clear that public sentiment was not on Rajoelina’s side. In a remarkable turn, Madagascar’s security forces—long seen as loyal to the president—began to side with the protesters. Their defection proved decisive, giving the opposition the momentum it needed to push for Rajoelina’s impeachment.
Rajoelina, for his part, was defiant to the end. On October 13, he appeared in a live Facebook broadcast from what he described as a “safe place,” telling the nation that he considered the impeachment process legally void. He argued that the parliamentary session was unconstitutional because he had dissolved the National Assembly earlier that day. “The result is legally void,” Rajoelina insisted, claiming that the assembly had no authority to proceed with the vote.
Despite his protests, the Assembly forged ahead, holding an extraordinary session that culminated in the historic impeachment vote. The presence of IRMAR party members—many of whom had supported Rajoelina in the past—underscored just how isolated the president had become. As news of the vote spread, thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets of Antananarivo, demanding Rajoelina’s resignation and celebrating what they saw as a victory for democracy.
Yet, the situation remains fluid and fraught with peril. The Constitutional Court has yet to formally approve the impeachment, and Rajoelina’s exact whereabouts are unknown. Some fear that loyalists within the military or the political establishment could attempt to mount a counter-coup, plunging the country into further chaos. Others worry that the suspension of the constitution and dissolution of key institutions could set a dangerous precedent, undermining the rule of law and making it harder for Madagascar to return to normalcy.
International observers are watching closely, mindful of Madagascar’s turbulent political history. The island nation has experienced multiple coups and periods of instability since gaining independence from France in 1960. The 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power was widely condemned, and the subsequent years were marked by economic stagnation and diplomatic isolation. Many Malagasy citizens are now hoping that this latest upheaval will not lead to more of the same.
For now, CAPSAT’s transitional government faces a daunting set of challenges. Restoring public trust, ensuring basic services, and organizing a credible referendum will require both skill and patience. The inclusion of civilians in the transitional cabinet is seen by some as a positive step, but skeptics caution that military-led transitions rarely deliver on their promises of democracy and reform.
As the dust settles, one thing is clear: Madagascar stands at a crossroads. The coming weeks and months will determine whether the country can break free from its cycle of coups and instability, or whether it will be pulled back into the familiar grip of uncertainty. For the Malagasy people, weary from years of hardship and political strife, the hope is that this time, things might finally be different.
With the world’s eyes now fixed on Antananarivo, the choices made by Madagascar’s leaders—both civilian and military—will shape the nation’s destiny for years to come.
