Brazil finds itself at a political crossroads as the 2026 presidential election approaches, with the nation’s deep-seated divisions laid bare by a new Genial/Quaest poll and the recent conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The poll, released on November 13, 2025, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—widely known as Lula—still leading in every tested electoral scenario, but his advantage over a crowded field of rivals is slipping. Meanwhile, the country is still reeling from the shockwaves of Bolsonaro’s September conviction for plotting a military coup, a verdict that has sparked both relief and anxiety across the political spectrum.
The Genial/Quaest survey, conducted between November 6 and 9 with 2,004 respondents and a margin of error of two percentage points, tested ten different first-round scenarios for the upcoming presidential race. Lula’s support ranged from 31% to 39% depending on the competition, but the tightest contest pits him against none other than Bolsonaro himself. In that head-to-head, Lula garners 32% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro trails at 27%—a mere five-point gap. Yet, as Valor Econômico reports, there’s a catch: Bolsonaro is ineligible to run until 2030, following two rulings by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and a Supreme Court conviction for his attempt to overturn the 2022 election results. That conviction, delivered on September 11, 2025, sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting a military coup, armed criminal conspiracy, and attempting to abolish the democratic rule of law.
Despite his legal woes, Bolsonaro’s shadow looms large over Brazilian politics. The poll shows that support for his candidacy in 2026 has actually increased—from 18% in October to 26% in November—even as he faces the possibility of imprisonment by year’s end. The share of voters saying he should step aside has dropped from 76% to 67%. Meanwhile, Lula’s own support for reelection has slipped, falling from 42% to 38%, while the proportion of voters who believe he should not run again has risen to 59%.
The field of potential challengers is a who’s who of conservative politics, many with ties to Bolsonaro. His son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, commands between 15% and 27% of voting intentions, depending on which other right-wing figures are included in the scenario. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, another rising star, scores between 16% and 21% in three tested matchups. Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior’s support ranges from 7% to 18%. The poll also tested, for the first time, the name of Renan Santos, a founder of the Free Brazil Movement (MBL) and president of the newly approved Missão party, though Santos’s best showing was a modest 3%.
In the scenario featuring former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula leads with 31% to her 18%. Across all matchups, Lula’s lead narrows when facing the most competitive right-wing candidates. The tightest second-round scenario is a technical draw: Lula at 42%, Bolsonaro at 39%, within the poll’s margin of error. This marks a dramatic shift from September, when Lula led Bolsonaro by 13 points, and from October, when the gap was 10 points. In other potential runoffs, Lula’s advantage ranges from five points over Tarcísio de Freitas (41% to 36%) and Ratinho Junior (40% to 35%), to seven points over Romeu Zema (43% to 36%) and Ronaldo Caiado (42% to 35%). Against Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula’s margin is nine points (44% to 35%), and against Eduardo Bolsonaro, it’s ten points (43% to 33%).
But these numbers belie a deeper uncertainty. In the spontaneous poll—where voters name their preferred candidate without prompts—Lula’s share dropped from 19% in October to just 14% in November. The undecided rate ballooned to 72%, up from 69% the previous month. Bolsonaro remains the second most cited, holding steady at 6%, while Tarcísio de Freitas nudged up to 2%. Rejection rates are telling: Eduardo Bolsonaro is the most rejected figure, with 67% of respondents saying they would not vote for him, followed by Michelle Bolsonaro (61%), Jair Bolsonaro (60%), Ciro Gomes (57%), Lula himself (53%), and Tarcísio de Freitas (40%).
This volatile political landscape is set against the backdrop of Bolsonaro’s conviction—a flashpoint that has intensified Brazil’s already fierce polarization. According to a report translated from interviews conducted in Brazilian Portuguese, the former president’s downfall has divided opinion. Students and teachers at Degraus Ensino Medio in Juiz de Fora voiced support for the conviction, citing the January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters—a moment eerily reminiscent of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot in the United States. “Brazil is a very polarized country, with two divisions, not just left and right but two parties and two presidents, Lula and Bolsonaro,” said student Manuela Quinet. Her classmate, Miguel Ribeiro, remarked, “It’s sad to see that many times people don’t care about the political figure they are supporting, but rather a sense of belonging they have.”
Both students and their chemistry teacher, Alex Almeida, agreed that Bolsonaro’s conviction was justified, especially in light of his actions during the COVID-19 pandemic and his alleged incitement of the coup attempt. “In Brazil, no one is above the laws of Brazilian institutions—no one, not a former president, much less a current president in office,” Almeida stated. Yet, concerns linger about the process. Senior Luiza Barbosa expressed worry about the speed of the verdict and the concentration of power in the hands of Supreme Court Vice President Alexandre de Moraes, a controversial figure criticized by Bolsonaro and his supporters, but backed by Lula. Barbosa also noted, “There is still a community of people who support this, and they are not just people who were manipulated, but people who knew it was an attempted coup and agreed with it.”
Adding to the tension, Brazilian Supreme Court justices, including Moraes, are currently banned from entering the United States, following allegations of political persecution against Bolsonaro—a move that has only heightened anxieties about the impartiality of Brazil’s judiciary. There is also talk among Bolsonaro’s supporters of mobilizing an amnesty project on his behalf, and many believe his sentence could be reduced. “He has a very strong influence over the population,” Barbosa said, “so much so that people are already mobilizing for an amnesty project for him.”
As the 2026 election draws nearer, Brazil’s political future hangs in the balance. Lula’s lead is real but fragile, and the specter of Bolsonaro—whether behind bars or not—continues to shape the national conversation. With polarization deepening and faith in institutions under strain, the coming months promise to test the resilience of Brazilian democracy in ways not seen since the country’s last military dictatorship. For now, one thing is certain: the eyes of Brazil, and indeed the world, are watching closely as the nation writes its next chapter.
