Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a Republican incumbent known for his independent streak, finds himself in a highly competitive fight for re-election as the 2026 GOP primary approaches. Despite a formidable campaign war chest of $9.5 million—far outpacing his leading rivals—Cassidy faces a surge from state Treasurer John Fleming, whose grassroots campaign and recent polling gains have upended expectations just six months before the primary.
According to a JMC Analytics and Polling survey conducted from October 15 to 17, 2025, Fleming now leads the Republican field with 25 percent support among likely primary voters, narrowly ahead of Cassidy’s 23 percent. The poll, which included 610 likely Republican primary voters and carries a 4.0 percent margin of error, represents a sharp reversal from previous surveys that had consistently favored Cassidy. The remaining five tested candidates together accounted for 17 percent of the vote, while a significant 35 percent of respondents reported being undecided.
The poll’s demographic breakdown reflects the state’s Republican electorate: 70 percent Republican and 30 percent unaffiliated, with 93 percent identifying as white, 4 percent black, and 3 percent other. The survey reached voters across Louisiana’s major media markets, including Baton Rouge (21 percent), Lafayette (15 percent), New Orleans (33 percent), and Shreveport (10 percent). The timing of the poll is notable, coming on the heels of the dissolution of Louisiana’s Independent Party, whose former members are now classified as “no party” voters—a factor that could reshape the dynamics of the race.
Fleming’s rise is even more pronounced in a projected head-to-head runoff scenario. There, he expands his lead over Cassidy to 40 percent compared to Cassidy’s 29 percent, with 31 percent of voters still undecided. This marks a jump from the previous poll, which had Fleming ahead by a smaller margin (36 to 29 percent).
Fleming’s campaign, which touts over 200 volunteers and more than 10,000 campaign signs posted across the state, attributes its momentum to its grassroots energy and conservative bona fides. Fleming, a Navy veteran, physician, and businessman, previously served eight years in the U.S. House representing Louisiana’s 4th District. He was a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, where he helped craft legislation focused on limited government and constitutional accountability. After his congressional tenure, Fleming joined the Trump administration, serving in several key roles: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House from 2020 to 2021.
In 2023, Donald Trump endorsed Fleming in his successful run for state treasurer, a move that aligned him with a slate of Trump-backed Republican candidates who swept Louisiana’s statewide elections that year. Fleming’s campaign is quick to highlight this endorsement and his record in Congress as evidence of his conservative credentials. According to the latest data, Fleming has $2 million on hand for his Senate bid, matching the reported funds of state Senator Blake Miguez, another challenger in the crowded GOP field.
Meanwhile, Senator Cassidy’s financial advantage remains significant. Political analyst Bernie Pinsonat, speaking with local media, observed, “That’s a lot of money, $10 million. I think, based on this race, the challengers will need at least a minimum $3 million, probably closer to $5 million or $6 million.” Pinsonat emphasized that while a robust war chest is a major asset, it does not guarantee victory: “A lot of details yet to emerge from this campaign, but having $10 million and the ability to raise more, of course, is a big deal for Cassidy.”
Other Republican primary contenders include Public Service Commission member Eric Skrmetta and St. Tammany Parish councilwoman Kathy Seiden, who have yet to report their third-quarter fundraising totals. As the campaign season heats up, observers expect the financial arms race to intensify, especially as undecided voters remain up for grabs.
Cassidy’s vulnerability stems in large part from his high-profile decision in 2021 to vote to convict former President Donald Trump during Trump’s second impeachment trial, following the January 6 Capitol riot. This move, which aligned Cassidy with Senate Democrats, drew immediate backlash from many Republican voters and has since become a central issue in the primary. The senator’s subsequent public statements have further fueled divisions within the party. In interviews, Cassidy has argued that Trump “cannot win a general election” and pointed to Republican losses in swing states as evidence. In 2023, he described special counsel Jack Smith’s classified documents case against Trump as “almost a slam dunk,” and in 2024, he said Trump’s “bloodbath” remark at an Ohio rally was “concerning” to voters.
Despite this, Pinsonat cautions against writing off Cassidy’s chances. “There’s some who suggest he’s in trouble, and he has all these problems and whatever, but we won’t find out anything till we start seeing polling on the race in probably the early part of next year,” he explained. The first major polling data has now arrived, and it signals a real contest ahead.
For Fleming, the opportunity is clear. His campaign has worked to capitalize on the party’s rightward shift and the energy of Trump-aligned voters. The former congressman’s emphasis on grassroots organizing—over 200 volunteers and thousands of signs—suggests a strategy focused on mobilizing conservatives who feel alienated by Cassidy’s impeachment vote and subsequent criticism of Trump. Fleming’s background as a Navy veteran and physician, coupled with his tenure in both Congress and the Trump administration, provides a resume that appeals to many in the state’s Republican base.
Yet, for all the drama surrounding the leading contenders, the race remains wide open. With 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, according to the JMC Analytics poll, much can change before voters head to the polls. The financial advantage held by Cassidy could allow for a significant advertising blitz as the primary draws closer, potentially swaying undecided voters. On the other hand, Fleming’s grassroots momentum and Trump’s endorsement may continue to erode Cassidy’s support among the party faithful.
For now, Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary stands as one of the most closely watched and unpredictable contests in the country. The outcome will not only determine the state’s representation in Washington but also serve as a bellwether for the direction of the Republican Party itself—balancing the weight of incumbency and fundraising against the power of grassroots activism and the lingering influence of Donald Trump.
As the campaign enters its next phase, all eyes will be on the candidates’ ability to court undecided voters, marshal resources, and navigate the internal divisions that have come to define the GOP in the post-Trump era. The first real test will come when new polling emerges in early 2026, setting the stage for what promises to be a fiercely contested primary battle.
