French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly survived two high-stakes no-confidence votes in the National Assembly on Thursday, October 16, 2025, safeguarding his fragile government for now but setting the stage for fierce political battles ahead. The outcome has granted France a temporary reprieve from deepening political instability, yet the country remains on edge as the government faces daunting negotiations over the 2026 national budget and simmering discontent over controversial pension reforms.
The first no-confidence motion, spearheaded by the far-left France Unbowed party (La France Insoumise), garnered 271 votes—just 18 shy of the 289 required to topple Lecornu’s government, according to Reuters and the Associated Press. The second motion, filed by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, failed by a much wider margin with only 144 lawmakers supporting it. Each motion would have required an absolute majority in the 577-seat lower house to pass.
Lecornu’s survival was far from guaranteed. His government, in place for only four days, inherited a deeply fragmented National Assembly and an increasingly restive public. In recent months, France has cycled through four governments in less than a year, with Lecornu’s predecessors, François Bayrou and Michel Barnier, both ousted by similar confidence crises, as reported by BBC and The New York Times.
To stave off defeat, Lecornu made a significant and controversial concession earlier in the week: he pledged to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pension reform, which would gradually raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030. This reform, a cornerstone of Macron’s economic agenda, has long been political kryptonite in France, where pension benefits are fiercely defended by the left and cherished by much of the public. According to Politico, the freeze on the law is set to last until the next presidential election in 2027, representing a major climbdown for Macron’s administration.
The suspension of the pension overhaul proved decisive in swaying the Socialist Party, whose 69 lawmakers suddenly held the balance of power. While the Socialists ultimately withheld support for the no-confidence motions, their backing was described as "grudging" by the Associated Press, with only seven Socialist members breaking ranks to vote in favor of the censure. The conservative Republicans, with 50 lawmakers, also largely abstained from the effort to unseat Lecornu, with just one exception.
Yet, this alliance of convenience is fragile at best. Socialist leader Olivier Faure made it clear that their support is conditional and could evaporate if Lecornu fails to honor his promises. "If commitments are not honored, I am thinking in particular of the pension overhaul, we will immediately censure them," Faure warned reporters at the National Assembly after the vote, as quoted by The New York Times.
Opposition voices on both the far-left and far-right were quick to paint the government’s survival as little more than a stay of execution. Eric Coquerel, the hard-left lawmaker who heads the finance committee, declared on X (formerly Twitter), "The Lecornu government is on borrowed time. The battle over the budget begins." Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, echoed the sentiment, writing, "A majority cobbled together through horse-trading managed today to save their positions, at the expense of the national interest."
President Macron, facing the midpoint of his second and final term, was watching the proceedings closely from the Élysée Palace. He had previously threatened to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections if Lecornu’s government fell—a move fraught with risk given the current volatility and the rise of both left and right populist parties. Although Macron has ruled out resigning himself, his domestic legacy now hangs in the balance, with the pension reform—once a crowning achievement—now effectively shelved and the government’s ability to pass a budget in serious doubt.
Now, all eyes turn to the upcoming budget negotiations, which must conclude before the end of the year. France’s public finances are in a precarious state, with Lecornu’s draft 2026 budget proposing over 30 billion euros (about $35 billion) in savings to bring the national deficit down to 4.7% of GDP from a forecast 5.4% this year. The Socialists have already set their sights on including a new tax on billionaires, further complicating the task of building consensus in a legislature split into three distinct ideological blocs, as detailed by Reuters.
Lecornu has promised not to use Article 49.3 of the French constitution—a controversial tool that allows the government to force legislation through Parliament without a vote—to push the budget through, a tactic that Macron’s previous government employed to impose the pension reform and which sparked widespread protests. Instead, Lecornu has pledged to engage in open negotiations with lawmakers, though few expect an easy path forward. As BBC Paris correspondent Hugh Schofield noted, "He will be fighting for survival—with the Socialists persuaded not to join today’s censure only after Lecornu put forward suspending controversial pension reforms."
The stakes are high for all parties involved. Should the Socialists or Republicans decide to withdraw their support in the coming weeks, Lecornu could yet face another no-confidence vote—one that might succeed where Thursday’s efforts failed. The possibility of snap elections, government resignations, or further concessions looms large over the political landscape.
Meanwhile, the French bond market remained steady following the government’s victory, with investors having largely anticipated the outcome. However, the underlying instability has not gone unnoticed, with Reuters describing the situation as the worst political crisis France has faced in decades.
For now, Lecornu and his government have bought themselves time, but the challenges ahead are formidable. As debate on the budget begins in Parliament's finance committee, the prime minister must navigate a minefield of competing demands, ideological divisions, and the ever-present threat of renewed political upheaval. The coming weeks will test not only Lecornu’s political acumen but also the resilience of France’s Fifth Republic itself.
With the pension reform suspended, a divided Parliament, and a budget battle looming, France’s political future hangs in the balance—uncertainty that leaves both the government and its opponents bracing for whatever comes next.
