Latino voters have long been considered a crucial—if unpredictable—force in American politics, but the latest redistricting battles in Texas and California have thrust them into an even brighter spotlight. After Latino support for Donald Trump surged in the 2024 presidential election, tipping the scales in his favor and sending shockwaves through the political establishment, both Republicans and Democrats are now scrambling to win over this influential bloc ahead of the 2026 midterms. Yet, as history and the latest polling show, assuming Latino voters will line up behind any one party is a risky bet.
According to Los Angeles Times, the fall 2024 election saw Latinos, a group Trump had often painted as a threat, turn out in unexpectedly large numbers for the former president. This "political earthquake," as the paper described it, not only helped Trump secure victory but also forced Democrats into a period of soul-searching about their own assumptions and strategies. Now, with contentious redistricting efforts underway in both Texas and California, the stakes are even higher—and the outcome is anything but certain.
In Texas, the Republican-dominated Legislature approved new congressional maps just last week, designed with the explicit goal of helping the GOP gain up to five additional seats in the 2026 midterms. The new maps, drawn at the behest of Trump, increase the number of Republican voters in South Texas districts and create Latino-majority districts in Houston and central Texas—areas that favored Trump in 2024. The strategy is clear: Republicans are banking on the idea that Latino voters, having swung to Trump once, will continue to support the GOP agenda in upcoming races.
But not everyone is convinced this approach will pay off. Hours after the Texas Senate sent the new maps to Governor Greg Abbott, a lawsuit was filed alleging that the redistricting plan created "Potemkin majority-Latino districts"—districts that appear to empower Latino voters but actually dilute their influence by packing some into already Democratic-leaning districts and splitting others among Republican-leaning ones. The lawsuit argues that this is a calculated move to weaken Latino voting power, even as their numbers grow in the state.
San Antonio, a city with deep Democratic and Latino roots, has been particularly affected. The new maps have split the city into multiple districts, leaving only one of three Latino Democratic representatives—Joaquin Castro—truly safe. The other two, Henry Cuellar and Greg Casar, now face much more uncertain prospects, with Casar's district even merging with that of retiring Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett. As state GOP Rep. Mitch Little told CNN, "We have three Hispanic-predominated districts in South Texas that we believe we can carve out for Republican leadership. It’s good for our party. It’s good for our state. And we need to ensure that Donald Trump’s agenda continues to be enacted."
Yet, recent polling suggests the GOP's confidence may be misplaced. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August 2025 showed Latino support for Trump had dropped from 36% in February to 31% by August, with only 27% approving of his performance according to Pew Research Center data. If this downward trend continues, the elaborate redistricting efforts could backfire, leaving Republicans with little to show for their efforts.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, California Democrats are engaged in their own redistricting gambit. Led by Governor Gavin Newsom, the party has proposed new maps that target Republican-held congressional seats, with the aim of shoring up Democratic power. These maps will go before voters in November 2025, and once again, Latino voters are seen as the key to success.
California’s approach is the mirror image of Texas’s: Democrats hope that Latino voters will help them flip Republican seats, especially in districts like that of Rep. Kevin Kiley, which would be redrawn to include more Latino voters. Other proposed districts for Democrats Josh Harder, Adam Gray, and Derek Tran also include larger Latino populations. A new district in southeast Los Angeles County is expected to be won by a Latino Democrat.
Governor Newsom has made no secret of his motivations, framing the redistricting as a necessary defense against what he calls Trump’s "threat to American democracy." Powerful Latino politicians and organizations in California have lined up in support of the plan, with Newsom counting on them to mobilize Latino voters in favor of the new maps. However, skepticism abounds. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted for the Los Angeles Times in August 2025 found that only 43% of Latinos support Newsom’s redistricting push—the lowest level of support among any ethnic group. Even more telling, 29% of Latinos remain undecided on the issue, the highest uncertainty rate of any demographic.
This hesitation is rooted in more than just partisan politics. As the Los Angeles Times reports, many Latinos are wary of being taken for granted by either party, a sentiment summed up in the term "rancho libertarianism": a blend of community values and individualism that resists easy categorization. This independence has frustrated political leaders for decades, with both parties making and breaking alliances with Latino voters depending on the political winds.
Indeed, Latino voters have a long history of defying expectations. After the passage of Proposition 187 in 1994, California Latinos turned away from the GOP for a generation, despite President Reagan’s famous assertion that they were "Republicans who didn’t know it yet." In 2008, contrary to predictions that they would never vote for a Black candidate, Latinos helped elect Barack Obama. And while Trump’s support among Latinos grew in each of his campaigns, recent polling shows that support is far from guaranteed.
Economic concerns, rather than abstract arguments about democracy or party loyalty, often drive Latino voting behavior. As blue-collar Latinos in both states struggle with rising costs and stagnant wages, neither Trump nor Newsom has delivered the economic relief many hoped for. This has led to growing frustration and a willingness to consider alternatives, regardless of party affiliation.
Political analysts warn that both Texas Republicans and California Democrats are making dangerous assumptions about Latino voting patterns. In Texas, the creation of so-called "Potemkin majority-Latino districts" may actually reduce Latino electoral influence, despite increasing their numerical presence in certain districts. In California, Democrats risk alienating Latino voters by focusing too much on partisan redistricting battles and not enough on the everyday concerns that matter most to these communities.
Latino voters have also shown a willingness to buck party lines on high-profile ballot measures. In 2003, 45% voted to recall Democratic Governor Gray Davis, and in 2008, 53% supported Proposition 8, the anti-gay marriage measure, even as a larger majority voted for Obama. These examples underscore just how unpredictable—and powerful—Latino voters can be.
As the 2026 midterms approach, one thing is clear: Latino voters are not a monolith, and any party that assumes otherwise does so at its own peril. With redistricting battles raging in two of the nation’s most populous states, the decisions made by Latino voters in the coming months could once again reshape the American political landscape in ways few can predict.
