Keir Starmer’s first year as Prime Minister and Labour leader has turned out to be anything but smooth sailing. Just sixteen months after leading the Labour Party to a resounding victory in the July 2024 General Election—restoring its place at the helm of British politics for the first time since 2010—Starmer finds himself facing mounting criticism, plummeting poll numbers, and speculation about his future at the top.
The mood within Labour is tense. According to Paddy Power News, the party’s dire performance in the 2025 local elections and a sharp drop in opinion polls have put Starmer under intense scrutiny. The annual budget statement has only added fuel to the fire, with many anticipating a potential leadership challenge in the coming weeks. Allies are already speaking out in his defense, but the sense of unease is palpable both inside and outside Westminster.
Despite the celebratory mood that followed Labour’s landslide win last year, Starmer’s time in office has left both left- and right-leaning voters dissatisfied. As reported by LabourList, the party is now trailing the insurgent Reform Party by 10 to 15 points in the latest surveys—a dramatic reversal of fortune that few could have predicted a year ago.
It’s not just the electorate showing signs of restlessness. A recent LabourList poll of more than a thousand party members found that, in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, Starmer would lose decisively to several prominent Labour figures. The standout? Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who led Starmer by a whopping 26 points—58% to 32%—with 10% of members undecided. Burnham’s popularity is undeniable, but there’s a catch: he’s not currently an MP, and would need to win a by-election to even be eligible for the leadership.
Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, put it bluntly: “Andy Burnham faces several hurdles. If things move quickly, he may not be able to return to Parliament in time to be a candidate. This might give Starmer and his team hope. If there is no obvious candidate that can beat him, he will feel much more secure in place.”
The betting markets are also watching the drama unfold. According to Paddy Power, Ilford North MP Wes Streeting, who currently serves as the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, is the favourite to succeed Starmer. Streeting, known for his sharp tongue, recently laughed off suggestions of plotting against the Prime Minister. “I think whoever’s been briefing this has been watching too much Celebrity Traitors, and this is just about the worst attack on a faithful I’ve seen since Joe Marler was kicked out and banished in the final,” he joked, as quoted by Paddy Power News.
Not far behind Streeting in the odds is Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, who has quickly risen through the ranks to become a serious contender. David Lammy, who became Deputy Prime Minister after Angela Rayner’s resignation earlier this year, is also in the mix. And, of course, there’s Burnham—if he can find a way back to Westminster in time.
Amid all this political turbulence, the issue of sexism in public life has also come to the fore. In a candid exchange with reporters on November 23, Starmer addressed the criticism facing Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is the first woman to hold the office in its more than 800-year history. Reeves has been vocal about the challenges she faces, telling The Times Magazine that she is “sick of people mansplaining how to be Chancellor to me.” She added, “I recognise that I’ve got a target on me. You can see that in the media; they’re going for me all the time. It’s exhausting.”
Starmer agreed, stating, “I strongly believe that women in public life get much more criticism and abuse than men, and I mean that is in politics, but it’s also across a number of other areas. There’s abuse and criticism of all politicians, but I’m acutely aware that women get much more abuse and criticism than men do and I think it’s about time we acknowledge that.” He went on to praise Reeves, saying, “I’m really proud that we’ve got a female Chancellor who’s doing a really good job.”
The Prime Minister’s comments come at a time when his own leadership is under siege, not just from opposition parties but from within Labour itself. The resignation of Angela Rayner, his former deputy and housing secretary, in September over tax affairs was a significant blow. However, Starmer has made it clear he wants her back in government: “Yes, absolutely. I’ve always said I want Angela back. Even back in September, at the time, I said she is going to be a big voice in the Labour movement.” He emphasized their ongoing friendship and regular conversations, adding, “I’m friends with Angie and I like Angie a lot and we talk a lot. We still do.”
With the annual budget looming and the party’s poll numbers stubbornly low, the pressure on Starmer is unlikely to ease any time soon. The sharks, as some in the media have put it, are circling. Yet, the absence of a clear challenger—especially if Burnham remains outside Parliament—could buy the Prime Minister some much-needed breathing room.
Still, the sense of instability is hard to shake. Labour’s internal debates reflect wider frustrations among its base, with some members yearning for a more dynamic or decisive leadership style. The fact that figures like Burnham, Streeting, Mahmood, and Lammy are all being discussed as possible successors underscores just how unsettled things are at the top.
For now, Starmer remains at the helm, but the coming weeks may prove decisive. The outcome of the budget, any shifts in public opinion, and the maneuvers of would-be contenders will all shape the future of both the Prime Minister and the Labour Party itself. As the nation watches, the question lingers: will Starmer weather the storm, or is Labour headed for yet another changing of the guard?
Whatever happens next, one thing is clear—British politics, never short on drama, is bracing for another turbulent chapter.
