The fate of the Labour Party’s leadership and its standing with both voters and unions have been thrown into sharp relief, as criticism mounts over the government’s record and internal divisions spill into public view. On November 2, 2025, Christina McAnea, general secretary of Unison—the UK’s largest trade union—sparked headlines by refusing to guarantee that Keir Starmer would remain Labour leader after the pivotal May 2026 elections. Her candid remarks, delivered during an interview with the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, underscored the uncertainty swirling around Starmer’s future and the party’s direction in the face of mounting challenges.
“Who knows?” McAnea replied when asked if she believed Starmer would still be at the helm after May. “I don’t know, depending on what happens in May, what Keir will feel about it or indeed the Labour MPs will feel about it. I suspect he will be – but I could not honestly guarantee it.” Her words, reported by the BBC, encapsulate the anxiety within Labour’s traditional support base. The union leader didn’t hold back, lambasting the party’s performance since it assumed office in July 2024. “It’s shocking what has been happening,” she said, specifically citing the government’s controversial decision to strip millions of pensioners of the winter fuel allowance—a move she described as one of several “own goals” since Labour took power.
These frank assessments come amid a period of escalating tension between Labour and the unions that have historically formed its backbone. Over the summer of 2025, Unite, another major union, publicly accused the party of failing to stand up for workers—a charge that resonated among grassroots activists and fed into a broader narrative of disconnection. The rift deepened in late October, when Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned that Labour’s biggest donors might disaffiliate if she continued to “pander to the right” in her upcoming Budget, expected later this month.
Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, added fuel to the fire by warning of “growing pressure on unions to end political donations to the party.” Such threats, while not yet realized, highlight the precariousness of Labour’s financial and organizational support at a time when the party can ill afford further instability.
Opinion polls paint a grim picture for Labour’s prospects. According to YouGov, as reported in early November 2025, Labour’s support had plummeted to 17%—down three points in just a week and now level with the Conservatives. More alarmingly, the party trailed Nigel Farage’s Reform UK by a full 10 points, with Reform sitting at 27%. Experts warn that Labour could face a historic drubbing in next May’s Welsh elections, with the possibility of coming in third place. The party also risks further losses in Scotland and in local elections across England, raising the specter of a collapse in former heartland regions.
The sense of crisis was only heightened by a string of recent scandals. Prime Minister Starmer was forced to sack Lord Mandelson, the ambassador to Washington, while his deputy, Angela Rayner, resigned after admitting to tax irregularities related to a property purchase. Meanwhile, Chancellor Reeves herself admitted she failed to obtain the correct license to rent out her south London property, though Starmer stood by her amid the controversy. These episodes have fed a narrative of government missteps and self-inflicted wounds, further eroding public confidence.
McAnea’s critique extended beyond policy missteps to the government’s overall economic management. Voters who backed Labour last year “expected to have more money in their pockets,” she said, only to be disappointed by what she described as masked successes. When pressed on who was to blame, she was unequivocal: “It has to be the Labour government’s fault.” She also confessed to having “no idea” why the winter fuel allowance was removed, framing it as emblematic of a government out of touch with its base.
Adding to Labour’s woes, speculation is rife that Chancellor Reeves will be forced to raise taxes in the November 2025 Budget to fill a multibillion-pound hole in the nation’s finances. The Independent recently revealed that both Starmer and Reeves could face a cabinet backlash if the chancellor breaks Labour’s manifesto pledge and increases income tax. Such a move, while perhaps fiscally necessary, risks alienating not only voters but also key figures within the party’s own ranks.
Against this backdrop of internal strife and falling poll numbers, Labour’s most senior ministers have struggled to present a unified front. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, speaking on Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, admitted, “There is a deep disillusionment in this country at the moment and, I’d say, growing sense of despair about whether anyone is capable of turning this country around.” Streeting, while professing optimism, acknowledged the scale of the challenge facing Labour following its humiliating by-election defeat in Caerphilly—a result he likened to the party’s seismic loss in Hartlepool back in 2021, when Starmer briefly considered stepping down as leader.
Yet even as Streeting voiced the public’s anxieties, Defence Secretary John Healey publicly broke ranks to challenge his colleague’s assessment. “No. I don’t, actually,” Healey said bluntly when asked if he agreed with Streeting’s diagnosis. He pointed to tangible government achievements: increased NHS appointments, record wage increases for low-paid workers, five interest rate cuts since the 2024 election, and an £8 billion deal for fast jets for Turkey—an agreement expected to support 20,000 UK jobs over the coming years.
“There’s a sense of times are still tough,” Healey conceded, “but people are recognising there are more appointments in the NHS now. They’re recognising that particularly if they’re low-paid, there’s a record increase in wages. They’re recognising that we’ve had five interest rate cuts since the election, and in my field, they’re recognising that this is a government which – this week – delivering an £8 billion deal for fast jets for Turkey, and that’s going to support 20,000 jobs over the next few years, around the UK.” Healey’s comments, as reported by HuffPost UK, reflect the government’s effort to highlight progress and counter the prevailing sense of gloom.
Still, the question lingers: can Labour turn things around before the electoral reckoning of May 2026? With union support wavering, donors threatening to walk, and public confidence at a low ebb, the party faces a daunting road ahead. The coming months will test not only Keir Starmer’s leadership but also Labour’s ability to reconnect with the voters and allies it so desperately needs.
For now, uncertainty reigns, and the Labour Party’s future hangs in the balance as it grapples with its own missteps, shifting allegiances, and the unforgiving scrutiny of an impatient electorate.
