It has been a bruising autumn for Britain’s Labour government, and as November 2025 draws to a close, the sense of crisis inside Downing Street is palpable. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces mounting speculation about his future, with Labour MPs openly musing that he could quit in the New Year—well before any formal leadership challenge is mounted. The tension is only heightened by the looming Budget, widespread voter discontent, and a series of political storms buffeting the government from all sides.
According to The Mail on Sunday, Labour MPs are increasingly suspicious of what one called Starmer’s “new zen-like mood.” One backbencher who met the Prime Minister recently remarked, “He was very chilled. Not like someone who had the weight of the world on his shoulders. Or expects to have them for that much longer.” The comment encapsulates the growing feeling that Starmer, battered by poor poll numbers and internal dissent, may be contemplating an exit before the party’s May 2026 local elections—widely seen as a likely flashpoint for a leadership contest if he remains in post.
Starmer’s own actions have fueled the speculation. Some colleagues saw his decision to write a public letter to his son for International Men’s Day as oddly valedictory. “I thought that was an odd thing for him to do. He’s not keen on talking about his family like that. I thought there was something valedictory about it,” one minister told The Mail on Sunday.
The Prime Minister’s office, however, is pushing back. Downing Street chief of staff Morgan McSweeney has told MPs that “the situation can be turned around,” briefing journalists that Starmer would fight any challenge. Some MPs interpret these briefings as an attempt to stiffen Starmer’s resolve rather than encourage resignation at the first sign of trouble.
Yet the numbers are grim. Labour is polling at just 18 percent, level with the Greens—a stunning collapse for a party that swept to power with high hopes. Exclusive polling data from former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, published on November 27, 2025, finds that only 9 percent of voters believe Starmer will still be Prime Minister after the next election. In stark contrast, 30 percent think Nigel Farage will take the top job. An overwhelming 69 percent of respondents say Labour is divided.
The economic picture isn’t helping. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Budget speech on November 26, 2025, with four goals in mind: keeping her job, keeping Starmer as PM, avoiding a financial crisis, and jumpstarting the economy. But Lord Ashcroft Polls found that 76 percent of voters expect the Budget to make them personally worse off; only 2 percent believe it will improve their situation. Just 11 percent expect the Budget to benefit the country as a whole, while 72 percent predict it will make things worse. According to Opinium, 78 percent of voters consider the Budget unfair, and 75 percent of those with an opinion (57 percent overall) say Reeves should resign. Her satisfaction ratings, The Mail on Sunday notes, are among the lowest on record since the mid-1970s.
Even among Labour supporters, optimism is in short supply. Only 8 percent of Labour voters expect to be better off after the Budget. Reeves’s critics are circling, and she has publicly lashed out at detractors for “mansplaining,” a sign of the intense pressure she faces. The government’s spending plans have come under fire for overshooting targets, with a black hole of around £30 billion now looming in the public finances. The latest Budget is expected to add perhaps £15 billion or more in spending increases, raising taxes in an attempt to plug the gap. But as The Mail on Sunday points out, “the chances are that once again the revenues won’t come in.”
There are also signs of broader economic malaise. The latest CBI survey shows business sentiment at its lowest since the early days of the Covid pandemic and approaching levels last seen during the Great Recession of 2008. Unemployment stands at 5 percent—a figure not exceeded outside the pandemic since 2016. Gilt yields have recently jumped by as much as 16 basis points in a single day, and some analysts warn that a 30 basis point spike in response to the Budget would echo the market chaos of Liz Truss’s infamous mini-Budget.
Inside the Labour Party, the knives are out. A Survation poll for LabourList, published November 26, 2025, found that Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner, and Wes Streeting would all defeat Starmer in any head-to-head leadership contest. Clive Lewis has even hinted he could vacate his own seat to make way for Burnham to mount a challenge. Rival candidates are reportedly “queuing up,” with Darren Jones also mentioned as a possible contender.
Labour’s polling woes are unprecedented for a governing party. The party has fallen as low as 15 percent in some surveys, trailing not only the Conservatives but also the Greens. As The Mail on Sunday observes, “with support as weak as this, even the government’s democratic legitimacy is under question.” If Starmer manages to survive until the Welsh Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections in 2026, current polling suggests Labour could face a devastating wipeout—potentially sealing his fate as leader.
Meanwhile, the government is embroiled in a separate controversy over the UK’s handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The deal, signed in May 2025, will see Britain return sovereignty of the islands but lease back the crucial military base on Diego Garcia. The agreement has sparked a political row at Westminster, with opponents accusing the government of capitulating to “left-wing lawyers and activists.” According to The Mail on Sunday, questions have also been raised about the involvement of Attorney General Lord Hermer and Starmer’s friend Philippe Sands, who acted as legal counsel for Mauritius in its dispute with the UK. Amid the heated debate, Baroness Chapman of Darlington found herself fielding questions about Starmer’s drink preferences—a sideshow to the main event, but a sign of how personal and fractious the atmosphere in Westminster has become.
Public trust in key institutions is also eroding. The Ashcroft polling found that more than a third of respondents believe the BBC displays left-wing bias, with only 22 percent saying it is impartial. On the policy front, 61 percent of voters oppose Chancellor Reeves’s plan to lift the two-child benefit cap, and 68 percent think they will be worse off personally after her Budget statement. Sixty-three percent believe the country as a whole will be poorer.
For Starmer and his embattled chancellor, the coming months will be a test of survival. With local elections on the horizon and party rivals circling, the Prime Minister’s “zen-like” calm may soon be tested to breaking point. The fate of Labour’s leadership—and perhaps its grip on government—hangs in the balance as 2026 approaches.
