It’s been a political season of shocks in Wales, and the latest Senedd opinion poll has rattled the Labour Party to its core. On September 21, 2025, an ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov, and Cardiff University poll revealed Labour’s support had plummeted to a record low of just 14%, well behind Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform at 29%. With the May 2026 Senedd election looming, the numbers spell trouble for a party that has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century.
According to BBC reporting, former Welsh government minister Mick Antoniw minced no words, calling the poll a “wake-up call to all of us, both in Wales and at UK level together.” Labour, he argued, must “recognise the things that we have to do to be real Labour.” Antoniw insisted, “What we really do need, particularly at a UK level I think, is a clear vision—a vision of hope, a vision of change.”
For context, Labour has won every Senedd election since devolution in 1999, always securing the largest number of seats. The party has also triumphed in Wales at every UK general election since 1922. Yet the latest polling suggests this era of dominance could soon end, with Plaid Cymru and Reform now poised to potentially overtake Labour as the largest party next May.
The sense of crisis within Labour is palpable. One anonymous Labour Member of the Senedd (MS) described the party’s mood as “grim,” noting that First Minister Eluned Morgan is “swimming against the tide and she’s trying her very best, she’s exhausting herself and it’s difficult to watch. It feels like an end of a chapter.” The MS pointed to ongoing internal tensions dating back to Vaughan Gething’s leadership in 2024 and the recent death of Hefin David as factors adding to the party’s woes. “The strain is there, the damaged relationships are there,” they said, painting a picture of a party reeling from both personal loss and political turmoil.
Polling expert Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University offered further insight into Labour’s predicament. He told Politics Wales that “there is a narrative building in Wales that if you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid,” leading many former Labour supporters to consider tactical voting for Plaid Cymru in 2026. Dr Larner also argued that Welsh Labour is “paying the price” for the unpopularity of the UK Labour government.
Indeed, the shadow cast by Westminster looms large. A Labour grandee told BBC that the “devastating” fall in support for the party in Wales was largely due to the “inadequacies of London Labour,” specifically criticizing the Treasury for “priding itself on what it doesn’t spend.” The grandee warned that Labour faced “the biggest kicking in our history” and suggested that if not for Eluned Morgan’s leadership, “it would be down the hill.”
In an effort to distance her government from the troubles at Westminster, Eluned Morgan has championed what she calls “the Red Welsh Way”—a distinct approach for Welsh Labour. According to the same grandee, Morgan is “right to accurately emphasise diversion.” This strategy aims to reassure voters that Welsh Labour is not simply an extension of its UK counterpart, but rather a party with its own priorities and vision for Wales.
The internal shake-up hasn’t stopped there. According to a senior Welsh Labour source cited by Politics Wales, Morgan “quietly changed her political team over the summer,” replacing former MP Wayne David as her top adviser. “It’s already having a big impact on the government’s focus,” the source claimed. They also noted that many Labour MSs are set to step down in May, adding, “Let them go with thanks and take the past drama with them.”
Meanwhile, Health Secretary Jeremy Miles addressed the latest polling figures with a measured tone. On September 18, 2025, he said, “Polls are important for us to look at but they change from time to time and so you can’t take one poll on its own.” He acknowledged, “Clearly the most recent poll is not a positive picture for us but the truth of it is it’s a reminder for all of us that the election is a choice for people in Wales.” Just a day later, on September 19, Miles became the 14th sitting Labour MS to announce he would not be standing again at the May 2026 election—a sign, perhaps, of just how turbulent the waters have become for Welsh Labour.
Labour’s troubles are not occurring in a vacuum. The party’s historic dominance in Wales has long been seen as a political given, but the latest poll numbers suggest that voters are more willing than ever to consider alternatives. The rise of Reform, which now sits just a single percentage point behind Plaid Cymru, adds a new dimension to the contest. According to Dr Larner, the tactical voting narrative is likely to play a crucial role in the 2026 election, as anti-Reform voters coalesce around Plaid Cymru in an effort to block Reform’s advance.
Within the party, there is a growing recognition that change is needed. As one senior Welsh Labour MP put it, the UK leadership is “a massive issue” and the party is in “a general mess.” Still, they tried to look on the bright side, saying, “We know what we’re up against, so it almost makes it easier.” They emphasized the need for a “fixed and focused” campaign and a “positive, strong message.”
Defenders of the UK Labour government, however, argue that criticism from within the party is misplaced. A UK Labour source pointed to extra funding for rail in Wales as evidence of Westminster’s commitment. They added, “Individuals who are so ready to attack the UK government must take personal responsibility for the past 26 years and the challenges we now face.”
Yet, behind the scenes, some believe that more pressure needs to be placed on Labour’s national leadership. A senior Welsh Labour source, close to Eluned Morgan, told Politics Wales that Welsh MPs needed to make the stakes clear to party leader Keir Starmer: “If they said to Keir, ‘you’re going to lose Wales, do you realise that?’ then he might start listening.”
With the May 2026 Senedd election fast approaching, Welsh Labour faces a crossroads unlike any in its modern history. The party’s response to this “wake-up call” could determine not only its own future, but the political direction of Wales for years to come. For now, one thing is certain: the old certainties are gone, and the race for Wales is wide open.
