Welsh politics is undergoing a seismic shift, as a new wave of polling data has sent shockwaves through the Senedd and beyond. For decades, Labour has been the dominant force in Wales, winning every Senedd election since devolution in 1999 and every UK general election in the nation since 1922. But a recent poll, published on September 20, 2025, by ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov, and Cardiff University, paints a very different picture ahead of the May 2026 Senedd contest.
The numbers are stark: Labour’s support has plummeted to a record low of just 14%, trailing far behind Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform at 29%. The Welsh Conservatives, who finished second in the last Senedd election, have themselves slipped to fourth place. The polling has left Labour veterans, opposition leaders, and political analysts scrambling to interpret what this means for the future of Welsh governance.
Mick Antoniw, a former Welsh government minister, didn’t mince words when he described the poll as a "wake-up call to all of us, both in Wales and at UK level together," according to BBC. He stressed the need for Labour to rediscover its roots and "be real Labour," adding, "What we really do need, particularly at a UK level I think, is a clear vision – a vision of hope, a vision of change." Antoniw’s remarks capture a sense of urgency now gripping the party.
Inside Welsh Labour, the mood is, by many accounts, grim. One Labour Member of the Senedd (MS), speaking anonymously, told BBC, "The tide has turned against us... it feels like [First Minister Eluned Morgan] is swimming against the tide and she’s trying her very best, she’s exhausting herself and it’s difficult to watch. It feels like an end of a chapter." The same MS pointed to the emotional toll of Hefin David’s recent death and lingering tensions from the Vaughan Gething era, saying, "The strain is there, the damaged relationships are there."
The party’s troubles don’t stop at internal strife. Dr. Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University, explained that a narrative has taken hold in Wales: "If you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid." As a result, many traditional Labour supporters are indicating they’ll vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026, compounding Labour’s woes. Dr. Larner also noted that Welsh Labour is "paying the price" for the unpopularity of the UK Labour government.
Some Labour grandees have been even more blunt. One described the fall in support as "devastating" and attributed much of it to the "inadequacies of London Labour," criticizing the Treasury for "priding itself on what it doesn’t spend." He warned that the party was facing "the biggest kicking in our history" and suggested that if Eluned Morgan weren’t at the helm, things would be even worse. In response, Morgan has attempted to carve out a distinct identity for Welsh Labour, dubbing her approach "the Red Welsh Way." According to party insiders, her efforts to "accurately emphasise diversion" from UK Labour have been the right move, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough.
The upcoming election will also be historic in another way: the number of Senedd members will rise from 60 to 96, a major reform that could further shake up the political landscape. For the Conservatives, this should have been a moment to seize. However, their own standing in the polls has slipped. Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar acknowledged the challenge but remained upbeat. "If I see a poll that I think my party should be doing much better in, they motivate me to work twice as hard to get our messages across to the public, to persuade them back to the Conservative cause," Millar told BBC Politics Wales.
Millar was quick to distance his party from the so-called establishment, insisting, "The Conservative Party is not the establishment when it comes to running the Welsh government. We have never been in power in Wales." He laid blame for the current state of the NHS, education, and economy at the feet of Labour, Plaid Cymru, and the Liberal Democrats, saying, "The other parties, Plaid, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, have all had a hand in the crisis that we see in our economy, in our education system and in our health service."
Despite the Conservative drop to fourth in the poll, Millar expressed optimism that voters would return to his party as scrutiny of Reform increases. He argued, "There’s greater scrutiny on Reform, which is great at pointing out what the problems are but won’t tell you what their solutions are to fix the NHS, to fix the education system and fix the economy." However, he also admitted that the party was still in "recovery mode" after a "disastrous" 2024 UK general election.
Millar also highlighted a widespread misunderstanding among voters about the powers of the Senedd, particularly around immigration, which has driven some support for Reform. "Many people, of course, are motivated to vote for Reform because of their views on immigration, over which the Senedd has no responsibilities whatsoever," he said.
The response from other parties was swift and unsparing. A Welsh Labour spokesperson told BBC, "Labour was clearing up the crises caused by fourteen years of Conservatives in Westminster," and accused the Tories of "defecting to Reform in droves, jumping ship for self-preservation and calling it patriotism." Plaid Cymru dismissed Millar’s comments as "depressing," adding, "Plaid Cymru has consistently challenged Labour when they’ve failed Wales – on funding, on the NHS, on public services. But for the Tories to lecture anyone on economic competence or public services is astonishing."
Reform UK Wales, riding high in the polls, was equally scathing. A spokesperson declared, "The Conservatives are on the path of extinction, and deservedly so. Voters will never forgive them for 14 years of abject failure in Westminster. Their track record speaks for itself." The Welsh Liberal Democrats joined the chorus, saying it was "a bit rich" for the Conservatives to "blame smaller parties for the state of our country after 14 years of their own government in Westminster. They have also utterly failed in their role as the official opposition in Wales since 1999."
Meanwhile, Labour’s own leadership is under scrutiny from within. A senior Welsh Labour MP told BBC, "We know what we’re up against, so it almost makes it easier." They emphasized the need for a "fixed and focused" campaign and a "positive, strong message." Behind the scenes, Eluned Morgan has quietly changed her political team, replacing former MP Wayne David as her top adviser—a move that insiders say is already "having a big impact on the government’s focus." With many Labour MSs stepping down in May, one source suggested, "Let them go with thanks and take the past drama with them."
Adding to the party’s sense of upheaval, on September 19, 2025, Welsh Health Secretary Jeremy Miles became the 14th sitting Labour MS to announce he would not stand in the May 2026 election. Miles struck a pragmatic note, telling BBC, "Polls are important for us to look at but they change from time to time and so you can’t take one poll on its own. Clearly the most recent poll is not a positive picture for us but the truth of it is it’s a reminder for all of us that the election is a choice for people in Wales."
As the May 2026 Senedd election approaches, the old certainties of Welsh politics are being swept aside. With Labour on the ropes, the Conservatives regrouping, and Plaid Cymru and Reform surging, the contest promises to be the most unpredictable—and consequential—in a generation.
