Labour, once the dominant force in British politics, is facing a crisis of confidence as its popularity plummets to record lows, according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by The Times. The survey, conducted between October 26 and 27, 2025, paints a stark picture: just 17 percent of voters would back Labour if a general election were held today, tying the party with the Conservatives and trailing far behind the surging Reform UK, which leads with 27 percent. The Greens, meanwhile, have reached their highest ever level of support at 16 percent, followed closely by the Liberal Democrats at 15 percent.
This latest poll, described by The Independent as the worst result ever recorded for Labour by YouGov, comes on the heels of a humiliating defeat in the Caerphilly by-election. There, Labour managed just 11 percent of the vote—its first loss in the former mining town in more than a century. Plaid Cymru emerged victorious, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK finished second, pushing Labour into a distant third. The party’s vote share in Caerphilly dropped by a staggering 35 percent compared to the last election in 2021.
The fallout from Caerphilly has been immediate and severe. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, visibly shaken by the results, admitted, “I spoke to the First Minister this morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup and double down on delivery in Wales, and we clearly need to do much more.” He went on to say he was “deeply disappointed” by the outcome, signaling an urgent need for change within the party’s ranks.
Labour’s struggles are not limited to Wales. The poll reveals a dramatic shift in the party’s support base nationwide. Half of all voters who backed Labour at the last general election have deserted the party since it entered government. The data also shows Labour hemorrhaging support to both Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left, underscoring the party’s precarious position in the political center.
Younger voters are flocking to the Greens in unprecedented numbers. According to the poll, 40 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds now intend to vote for Zack Polanski’s party, with Labour lagging far behind at 21 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 13 percent. This surge has more than doubled the Greens’ vote share since the last election, a remarkable rise since Polanski took over as leader just last month.
Among older voters, the landscape is equally challenging for Labour. Reform UK holds a commanding lead among those aged over 65, further eroding Labour’s traditional base. With the Conservatives also stuck at 17 percent, the once-clear lines of British party politics have blurred, leaving four parties—Labour, Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats—within just two percentage points of each other, while Reform UK stands apart with its significant lead.
The implications for Labour’s future are profound. Next year’s local elections, as well as the national elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments in 2026, are shaping up to be a crucial test of the party’s performance in government. Many see these contests as a deadline for Starmer to deliver on his government’s priorities—or face potentially historic losses.
In Wales, the situation is especially dire. The latest polling for ITV Cymru Wales suggests Labour is on course to fall from power, dropping from the party of government to a distant third. The poll indicates Labour’s support in Wales could collapse from 40 percent to just 14 percent in the upcoming Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK vying for the top spot. Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, did not mince words, calling the Caerphilly result “a reset for Welsh politics” and predicting the May 2026 Senedd election would be “a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform.”
Lindsay Whittle, the newly elected Senedd member for Caerphilly, was even more blunt, declaring, “Labour were dead in Wales.” The sentiment among many in the region is that voters are “fed up with Labour,” as Plaid Cymru’s leader put it, and are seeking alternatives that better reflect their priorities and frustrations.
The pressure on Labour’s leadership is mounting. The Andy Burnham-allied pressure group Mainstream has warned that without a “major reset,” Labour risks being “wiped out in Wales next May.” The group has advised Starmer to “reject the hyper-factional culture [that is] determined to concentrate power at the top of the party,” suggesting that more inclusive and responsive leadership is needed if Labour is to regain its footing.
Political analysts are skeptical about Labour’s prospects for recovery. Ipsos pollster Keiran Pedley told The Independent, “It is hard to see how Labour will turn things around.” With the party facing threats from both the left and right, and with its core support eroding across age groups and regions, the path forward looks fraught with difficulty.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s ascendancy continues unabated. According to the poll, Reform is “comfortably leading the weekly poll for Sky News and The Times,” with 27 percent of respondents saying they would back Nigel Farage’s party if an election were held tomorrow. This represents a dramatic shift in the political landscape, as Reform capitalizes on voter disillusionment with the traditional parties.
The Greens’ meteoric rise is another striking feature of the current moment. Their support has more than doubled since the last election, with the party now just one percentage point behind Labour. This surge is particularly pronounced among younger voters, who appear to be turning away from Labour in search of more radical solutions to issues like climate change, social justice, and democratic reform.
For the Conservatives, the news is hardly better. While they have been “stuck on that figure for a while,” as noted by The Independent, their inability to capitalize on Labour’s woes suggests a broader malaise afflicting the traditional parties. The Liberal Democrats, too, remain close behind but have yet to break through in a meaningful way.
As pollsters and politicians look ahead to the pivotal elections of 2026, the stakes could hardly be higher. For Labour, the coming months represent a last chance to regroup, reconnect with disaffected voters, and demonstrate that the party can deliver on its promises. Failure to do so could see the party relegated to the political wilderness, with Reform UK and the Greens poised to reshape the British political map in ways few could have predicted just a year ago.
With voters signaling a clear appetite for change and alternatives, the next chapter in British politics promises to be anything but predictable.
