In the swirl of post-2024 political speculation, a new poll has thrown an unexpected twist into the Republican Party’s early outlook for the 2028 presidential race. According to a survey released by Echelon Insights on August 19, 2025, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are tied with 9% support apiece among Republican voters pondering their future standard-bearer. But while these numbers might suggest a brewing rivalry, the reality is far more complicated—especially as Kennedy is adamant he’s not interested in the race at all.
Vice President JD Vance is the clear frontrunner in the poll, commanding a robust 43% of Republican support, leaving all other potential contenders trailing far behind. Secretary of State Marco Rubio managed just 6%, and none of the other names tested could even muster 5%. The poll’s results echo a recent Emerson College survey of California Republicans, which placed Kennedy slightly ahead of DeSantis at 10% to 9%, with Vance again dominating the field. These numbers underscore Vance’s current dominance, but also highlight the surprising staying power of both DeSantis and Kennedy in the Republican imagination, despite the latter’s repeated denials of any presidential ambitions.
Speculation about Kennedy’s intentions has been fueled in part by the activities of his Super PAC and persistent attacks from right-wing activist Laura Loomer. Loomer, known for her relentless campaigns against perceived disloyalty to former President Donald Trump within Republican ranks, set her sights on Kennedy’s top aide, Stefanie Spear. Spear, who previously worked with Kennedy at his anti-vaccine group Children’s Health Defense and served as his press secretary during his unsuccessful 2024 campaign, has been accused by Loomer of helping to lay the groundwork for a Kennedy 2028 run. These claims have stirred unease among some MAGA loyalists, who view any hint of disloyalty to Trump with suspicion.
Yet, Kennedy has been unequivocal in his response. On August 15, 2025, he took to the social platform X to put the rumors to rest. “Let me be clear: I am not running for president in 2028. My loyalty is to President Trump and the mission we’ve started,” Kennedy declared, in a statement that seemed designed to end the chatter once and for all. According to Nexstar Media, Kennedy went on to emphasize that his focus remains on the signature priority of the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ (MAHA) movement: ending the chronic disease epidemic. “The president has made himself the answer to my 20-year prayer that God would put me in a position to end the chronic disease epidemic — and that’s exactly what my team and I will do until the day he leaves office,” Kennedy wrote.
Despite these categorical denials, the speculation hasn’t completely abated. Some point to Kennedy’s political journey as evidence that anything is possible. He launched his 2024 presidential bid as a Democrat, later became an independent, and eventually dropped out to endorse Trump. That endorsement was widely seen as a strategic move to appeal to Kennedy’s substantial following among the MAHA movement, which has been a thorn in the side of the pharmaceutical industry and a vocal critic of what it sees as entrenched interests in the health sector.
Tony Lyons, the leader of the Kennedy-supporting MAHA PAC, was blunt in his dismissal of the presidential rumors. “The story that Secretary Kennedy was running for president was a made up story. There’s no truth to it whatsoever,” Lyons told The Hill in a text message. He added, “Secretary Kennedy never gave any indication that he was planning to run for president. He prayed for 20 years to have the opportunity that President Trump has given him. He is disrupting an entrenched and deeply corrupt system that has allowed a small group of companies to make incredible profits from products that make Americans sick. Those companies are spending millions to attack Secretary Kennedy and his incredible team to protect their ill-gotten gains.”
For his part, Ron DeSantis has taken a more measured approach to the prospect of a future presidential run. Reflecting on his 2024 campaign, DeSantis said, “When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate. I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.” According to Florida Politics, DeSantis believes he would have been well-positioned for the presidency if voters hadn’t preferred Trump, suggesting he’s keeping his options open for the future—even if he’s not actively campaigning now.
The polls themselves raise some intriguing questions about the state of the Republican Party. JD Vance’s commanding lead suggests that, at least for now, the party faithful are rallying behind the current vice president. But the persistent support for figures like DeSantis and Kennedy—despite Kennedy’s protestations and DeSantis’s more muted profile since 2024—shows that the GOP’s future remains far from settled. The base appears to be keeping its options open, perhaps wary of putting all its eggs in one basket after the turbulence of recent election cycles.
Meanwhile, the ongoing drama surrounding Kennedy’s aide Stefanie Spear illustrates the broader tensions within Trump’s coalition. Spear’s background as an environmentally focused Democrat before joining the Trump team in 2024, and her association with Kennedy’s anti-vaccine activism, make her a lightning rod for both suspicion and admiration. Loomer’s successful campaigns to oust administration officials she deems insufficiently loyal to Trump have only heightened the stakes for those in Kennedy’s orbit. Yet, Kennedy’s robust defense of Spear and his public declarations of loyalty to Trump suggest he’s intent on keeping his team intact—and his critics at bay.
All of this plays out against the backdrop of a Republican Party still grappling with its identity and direction in the post-Trump era. The specter of another Kennedy candidacy, however unlikely, speaks to the party’s ongoing fascination with outsider figures and the enduring appeal of political dynasties. At the same time, the willingness of activists like Loomer to police the ranks for signs of disloyalty underscores the intensity of the intraparty battles that lie ahead.
As the 2028 race inches closer, the only certainty seems to be uncertainty itself. The latest polls may offer a snapshot of current preferences, but as recent history has shown, political fortunes can shift in the blink of an eye. For now, Kennedy insists he’s out, DeSantis is biding his time, and Vance is the man to beat. But if there’s one thing American politics has taught us, it’s to never say never.
