Senator Joni Ernst, Iowa’s trailblazing Republican and the first woman from the state to serve in Congress, is set to retire at the end of her current term, opening the door to a fiercely contested 2026 Senate race that could reshape Iowa’s political landscape and ripple across the national stage. The news, first reported by CBS News on August 29, 2025, and confirmed by multiple outlets including CNN and the Associated Press, marks the end of an era for Iowa politics and throws both parties into a scramble to fill the coveted seat.
Ernst, 55, an Iraq War combat veteran and a former lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard, has been wrestling with her decision for months. According to sources familiar with her plans, she has begun telling friends and close allies that she will not seek a third term. An official announcement is expected in September, though Ernst herself hinted at the Iowa State Fair earlier this month that an announcement would be "coming soon." Her campaign has yet to comment publicly despite repeated requests for clarification from reporters.
Ernst’s departure is a seismic event for Iowa Republicans. First elected in 2014 with her memorable “Make ‘em squeal” campaign slogan, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the No. 4 Republican in Senate leadership and was even floated as a vice presidential contender during Donald Trump’s first White House run. She won reelection in 2020 by more than six percentage points, securing just under 52% of the vote, and has since been a prominent figure in GOP circles.
But her tenure has not been without controversy. In May 2025, during a town hall meeting, Ernst faced sharp criticism after a constituent raised concerns about Medicaid cuts in a Republican-backed budget package. When confronted with the prospect that people could die without Medicaid coverage, Ernst responded, “well, we all are going to die.” The remark drew national attention and became a rallying point for her opponents. According to the Associated Press, Democratic candidates have used the comment as early campaign fodder, highlighting what they describe as a disconnect between Ernst and everyday Iowans.
The senator’s political balancing act has grown more precarious in recent years. As the Republican Party has shifted under Trump’s influence, Ernst has at times struggled to navigate the divide between the party’s traditional conservatives and its more populist, MAGA-aligned base. Earlier this year, she made headlines for questioning Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth—who has previously expressed controversial views about women in combat—during his Senate confirmation hearing. Ernst, herself a survivor of sexual assault and an advocate for military reform, pressed Hegseth on his record, sparking a pressure campaign from Trump loyalists and underscoring the former president’s enduring sway over the party.
Ernst’s decision is also set against the backdrop of a rapidly changing Iowa political map. While the state was once considered a swing state—Barack Obama carried it in both 2008 and 2012—it has trended decisively Republican in recent years. Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020 and widened his margin to over 13 points in 2024. Republicans have swept nearly all statewide offices except for auditor, and currently hold all four of Iowa’s U.S. House seats. Yet Democrats see glimmers of hope: in 2025, the party scored a surprise victory in a conservative state Senate district, and they argue that shifting demographics and recent special election results suggest Iowa could be competitive again in 2026.
With Ernst stepping aside, the race to replace her is already heating up. On the Republican side, all eyes are on Representative Ashley Hinson, a third-term congresswoman from the Cedar Rapids area. Hinson, who won her district with 57% of the vote in 2024, is widely viewed as the GOP’s frontrunner. According to CNN and the Associated Press, national Republican strategists are encouraged by her fundraising prowess and track record in a politically mixed district. Other declared Republican candidates include former state lawmaker Jim Carlin and Joshua Smith, a veteran and former Libertarian state Senate candidate.
The Democratic field is already crowded and energized. State Senator Zach Wahls, state Representative Josh Turek—a Paralympian wheelchair basketball player—Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage have all announced campaigns. In a sign of party unity, Iowa Rep. J.D. Scholten dropped out to endorse Turek. Democratic candidates wasted no time framing Ernst’s departure as a sign that voters are hungry for change. Wahls, citing a recent Public Policy Polling survey that showed him leading Ernst, declared, “Joni Ernst is retiring because she knows our campaign is on track to win.” He added, “Our campaign was the strongest to take on Ernst, and I will take on any other politician who embraces the same corrupt agenda of the Washington establishment that screws over Iowans in favor of big corporations, billionaires, and self-serving and cowardly politicians.”
Norris echoed those sentiments, stating, “Joni Ernst is seeing the writing on the wall that Iowans are ready for change. Republicans’ destructive and unpopular agenda has failed Iowans and we are paying the price for Joni Ernst’s votes to slash Medicaid and health care, raise housing and energy costs and explode the deficit, to pay for tax giveaways for billionaires.” Turek, for his part, took to social media to warn that the Republican nominee will have to answer for supporting Medicaid cuts: “Whether it’s Joni Ernst or someone else, they’ll have to answer for supporting cutting Iowans’ healthcare in favor of a tax break for billionaires. When I’m in the Senate, I’ll never forget about Iowa.”
While the Democratic hopefuls are emboldened by recent special election wins and polling data, the path to victory remains steep. Iowa has been trending Republican for more than a decade, and the GOP currently enjoys a significant advantage in voter registration—nearly 200,000 more active Republicans than Democrats, according to the Associated Press. Still, with both the Ernst and Governor Kim Reynolds not seeking reelection, Iowa’s political future appears more uncertain than it has in years.
The stakes of the 2026 Senate race extend far beyond Iowa. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the Senate in the midterm elections, and they are targeting open or vulnerable GOP-held seats in states like North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Iowa, with its open seat and recent signs of Democratic momentum, is now firmly in their sights. As Republican strategist Luke Martz put it, “We’re going into what could be a tumultuous midterm, with two seats already highly targeted. This would be a third, depending on who we nominate.”
As both parties gear up for what promises to be a bruising contest, one thing is clear: Joni Ernst’s retirement has upended Iowa’s political calculus, setting the stage for a battle that will test the strength of both parties and perhaps offer a glimpse of where the nation is headed next.
