On September 2, 2025, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican known for her no-nonsense style and trailblazing career, announced she will not seek reelection in 2026. Her decision, delivered in a heartfelt video message posted to her social media accounts and YouTube, marks the end of a significant era in Iowa and national politics. “After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking reelection in 2026,” Ernst declared, her voice steady but tinged with emotion. “While this chapter of elected office will soon close, I will always find ways to best serve my community, state and these great United States of America.”
Ernst’s announcement, first reported by CBS News the previous week, was the formal confirmation of speculation that had swirled since late August. At 55, Ernst leaves behind a legacy as the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa and the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate. She was first elected in 2014, defeating Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and breaking barriers for women and veterans alike. Her rise from a self-described “farm girl” to lieutenant colonel in the Iowa Army National Guard (serving 23 years before retiring) and then to the U.S. Senate is, as she put it, “only in America and by the grace of God.”
The decision not to run for a third term was, by Ernst’s own admission, a difficult one. “This was no easy decision,” she reflected. “I love my state and country. It’s the very reason why I decided to wear our nation’s uniform and run for elected office in the first place. I never imagined this farm girl would have the opportunity to serve as a lieutenant colonel and then a United States senator.”
Ernst’s departure adds to a growing list of Republican senators stepping down in this cycle. She is the fourth, joining North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, and Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville (the latter running for governor). The impact of these retirements is not lost on political observers. According to Roll Call, the open seat in Iowa—long considered a Republican stronghold—offers an opening for Democrats in a cycle where they need to flip a net of four seats to claim a Senate majority. Yet, the challenge is steep: Donald Trump carried Iowa by more than 13 points in the 2024 presidential election, and the state’s recent electoral history has favored Republicans.
Democrats, however, are not deterred. In a joint statement, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand said, “Donald Trump and Senate Republicans’ devastating agenda has put their majority in jeopardy. Democrats are in a strong position to win seats and continue fighting for working families.” The Senate Majority PAC echoed this optimism, emphasizing that “an open seat in Iowa is just the latest example of Democrats expanding the senatorial map.” They also argued that GOP candidates “are going to have to answer to Iowans hurting because of the deep cuts to health care and nutrition assistance forced upon them by congressional Republicans.”
The field of potential successors is already taking shape. On the Republican side, Iowa Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, a former reporter who has served in Congress since 2021, has been widely mentioned as a likely candidate. Hinson hinted at her intentions in a post on X (formerly Twitter), stating she would soon announce “how we believe we can best serve Iowa, and how we can help President Trump make America great again.” Ernst had also drawn primary challenges from former state Sen. Jim Carlin and Navy veteran Joshua Smith. Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, has also been the subject of speculation.
Democrats, sensing an opportunity, have seen a crowded field emerge. State Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board Chairwoman Jackie Norris, and Marine and Army veteran Nathan Sage have all launched campaigns or expressed interest. As Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales notes, the race is still rated as “Likely Republican,” but recent Democratic upsets in legislative special elections have buoyed the party’s hopes.
Ernst’s legislative record is a mix of fiscal and social conservatism. She’s been a reliable supporter of Donald Trump, though not without controversy. Earlier this year, she faced criticism from some in her own party for initially hesitating to back Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who faced allegations of sexual assault (which he denied). Ernst, herself a survivor of sexual assault, ultimately voted in favor of Hegseth’s confirmation. From the Democratic side, she drew fire in May 2025 for her response to a constituent’s concern about potential Medicaid cuts leading to deaths. Ernst replied, “Well, we’re all going to die.” The comment was widely condemned, and she later posted a video—apparently recorded in a cemetery—that made light of the controversy.
Despite these bumps, Ernst has celebrated her achievements in the Senate. In her retirement announcement, she highlighted her work to prevent violence against women, support farmers and veterans, and cut waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government. She won her first Senate term by over 8 percentage points and secured reelection in 2020 by 6 points, even as Iowa’s political landscape shifted rightward.
Colleagues from both parties have recognized Ernst’s impact. Iowa’s senior senator, Republican Charles E. Grassley, stated, “She broke barriers at every turn and accomplished what she set out to do: ‘MAKE ‘EM SQUEAL.’” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott praised Ernst’s “dedication to serving our nation and improving the lives of Iowans,” adding, “Traveling across the Hawkeye State with Joni, I know she loves Iowa, and Iowa loves her.”
The Cook Political Report, even before the official retirement news, rated the seat as “likely Republican.” Still, Democrats are eager to test that assumption. State auditor Rob Sand remains the party’s sole statewide officeholder, and no Iowa Democrat has won election to Congress since 2020. Yet, as history has shown, political tides can shift unexpectedly—especially with open seats and a motivated opposition.
For now, Ernst’s legacy is secure: a pioneering combat veteran, a champion for Iowa’s farmers and families, and a Republican who made her mark in an era of fierce partisanship. As she prepares to step away from the Senate in January 2027, the question of who will fill her boots—and what direction Iowa will take—remains wide open.
