On September 2, 2025, Iowa’s political landscape was shaken by a major announcement: Republican Senator Joni Ernst, the first female combat veteran elected to the U.S. Senate, revealed she would not seek reelection in 2026. Ernst, who has represented Iowa since 2014, cited her desire to focus on family as a key reason for stepping aside, stating in a heartfelt video, “Having been raised in a family who has given me so much love and support, now as our family ages and grows, it’s my time for me to get back to them. After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking re-election in 2026.”
Her decision, which she described as “no easy decision,” comes after months of speculation, fueled in part by political controversies and the ever-shifting winds of Iowa politics. As reported by The Hill, Ernst’s announcement followed earlier reports that she was expected to bow out, and it immediately set off a scramble among Republicans and Democrats alike to position themselves for what is now a rare open Senate seat in a state known for its long-serving incumbents.
Ernst’s career has been marked by several historic firsts. Elected in 2014 to succeed longtime Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, she quickly gained national attention with her memorable “make ’em squeal” ads, promising to cut waste in Washington. A retired Army Reserve and Iowa National Guard officer who served in the Iraq War, Ernst made combating sexual assault in the military a personal and legislative priority, drawing from her own experience as a survivor. Her military credentials and Iowa roots—growing up a “farm girl,” as she put it—endeared her to many voters and helped her carve out a reputation as a fierce advocate for her state.
But the past year brought challenges. In May, Ernst faced criticism for her deadpan response at a town hall regarding GOP-backed Medicaid cuts. When pressed by a constituent, she replied, “Well, we’re all going to die,” a remark that, according to The Cook Political Report, became a ready-made sound bite for Democrats attacking Republican domestic policy. The comment crystallized some of the discontent within her own party and provided ammunition for opponents eager to reclaim ground in a state that has trended rightward since President Donald Trump’s victories in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Even before her announcement, GOP insiders were reportedly uncertain about Ernst’s plans. According to The Cook Political Report, doubts had been circulating for months, especially after Ernst faced the threat of a primary challenge earlier this year. Her wavering on the confirmation vote for now-Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—whom she ultimately supported after questioning his views on women in the military and past allegations of sexual assault—only added to the speculation. As Fox News highlighted, Ernst has often tried to balance support for Trump’s agenda with a more traditional Republican approach, but internal party tensions remained.
With Ernst’s departure, the Iowa Senate race has quickly become a focal point for both parties. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV anchor now in her third term representing Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, wasted no time signaling her intentions. In a social media post, Hinson praised Ernst’s “incredible service to our state and nation & for your friendship over the years. Iowa is better off thanks to your selfless service.” But Hinson also made it clear she was ready to step into the fray, teasing a campaign and aligning herself closely with former President Trump. “As we look forward, President Trump needs a fighter in the Senate who will always have his back to continue to cut spending, deport illegal aliens, and put working families first,” Hinson declared on X (formerly Twitter). “I’ve stood shoulder to shoulder with the President to pass this America First agenda in the House, and I would be his strongest ally in the Senate.”
Hinson’s announcement sets up what could be a bruising Republican primary. Two other Republicans—former state Sen. Jim Carlin and veteran Joshua Smith—had already entered the race, anticipating a challenge to Ernst, according to APM Reports. But with the seat now officially open, the primary field could grow even more crowded, as ambitious Iowa Republicans see a rare opportunity to ascend to the Senate.
Democrats, meanwhile, are eyeing the opening with renewed optimism. As Fox News reported, four Democratic candidates have already declared: state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian and wheelchair basketball player; state Sen. Zach Wahls; Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive director Nathan Sage; and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris. The Democratic Senate campaign arm, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand, quickly released a statement framing the open seat as a sign of Republican vulnerability. “Donald Trump and Senate Republicans’ devastating agenda has put their majority in jeopardy,” they said, arguing that “Democrats are in a strong position to win seats and continue fighting for working families.”
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, had rated Ernst’s seat as “likely Republican” before her retirement became official. But as history has shown, open seats can become fiercely contested battlegrounds, especially in a state that, while trending Republican, has a tradition of competitive races. Democrats have already flipped two GOP-held state Senate seats in special elections this year, and Iowa’s congressional districts remain hotly contested, with Democrats targeting Hinson’s own seat as a potential pickup.
Republicans, for their part, remain confident. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, chaired by Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, issued a statement expressing faith in Iowa’s electorate: “The NRSC is confident Iowans will elect a Republican to continue fighting for them and championing President Trump’s agenda in 2026.” With both of Iowa’s U.S. Senate seats and all four congressional districts currently in GOP hands, the party hopes to maintain its dominance despite the shifting winds.
Ernst’s retirement also comes at a time when Senate Republicans are defending a 53-47 majority, having flipped four seats from blue to red in the previous cycle. Yet, as Fox News pointed out, the party in power traditionally faces headwinds in midterm elections, and the 2026 Senate map features several battlegrounds that could tip the balance of power.
For Iowa, the end of Ernst’s tenure marks the close of a remarkable chapter. Her rise from Red Oak to the Senate, as Hinson put it, “is a powerful example of the American dream.” Ernst herself reflected on her journey: “I never imagined this farm girl would have the opportunity to serve as a lieutenant colonel and then a United States senator.”
As the 2026 campaign season looms, Iowans—and the nation—will be watching to see who steps forward to claim the open seat and what direction the Hawkeye State chooses next.
