In the heart of East Asia, the leadership contest within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has thrown a familiar yet deeply contentious issue back into the diplomatic spotlight: visits to the war-linked Yasukuni shrine. As Japan stands on the cusp of selecting its next leader, the political and symbolic weight of the shrine—long a source of friction with South Korea and China—has become a litmus test for the country’s approach to its neighbors and its own wartime legacy.
The timing could hardly be more delicate. On Tuesday, September 30, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, marking the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Their summit was, as President Lee described, “the essence of shuttle diplomacy that can be achieved only by South Korea and Japan.” According to NHK, Lee expressed hope that the two countries would grow closer not only physically, but also psychologically, economically, socioculturally, and in terms of national security. Ishiba, for his part, reflected on his exactly 365 days as prime minister, calling the meeting a meaningful way to conclude his diplomatic tenure. He pledged to “strive to make Japan and South Korea the closest of partners, with frequent exchanges and the ability to produce results with every summit visit.”
But even as these leaders celebrated growing ties and agreed to deepen discussions on pressing challenges—shrinking populations, disaster preparedness, and suicide prevention among them—the shadow of Yasukuni loomed over Tokyo’s political future. The shrine, which honors millions of Japan’s war dead including convicted war criminals, remains a lightning rod for regional tensions. For many in South Korea and China, it is a symbol of Japan’s past militarism and unresolved historical grievances.
This year’s LDP presidential election, held on Saturday, September 27, 2025, has only amplified these sensitivities. Three of the five candidates vying for the party’s top post visited Yasukuni on August 15, the 80th anniversary of Japan’s World War II defeat. Among them were Sanae Takaichi, former internal affairs minister, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the current farm minister—both of whom topped recent Kyodo News polls as the most suitable leaders for the LDP. The winner of this contest is widely expected to become Japan’s next prime minister, although the party’s coalition with Komeito has lost its majority in both chambers of parliament after a series of electoral setbacks over the past year, according to Kyodo News.
The question of Yasukuni visits is hardly academic. No sitting Japanese prime minister has visited the shrine since December 26, 2013, when Shinzo Abe made the trip on the first anniversary of his return to office—a move that deeply angered both Beijing and Seoul. Abe’s assassination in 2022 has only added to the poignancy of the issue. As Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, warned, “Any Yasukuni visit by a Japanese prime minister would deal a blow to efforts to bolster security ties with South Korea.” Watanabe believes that, of the five LDP hopefuls, at least four have no intention of visiting the shrine if they become prime minister. The only question mark, he says, hangs over Takaichi, who has not clarified her stance but insists that Japan “must not allow other nations to make it a diplomatic issue.”
Should Takaichi ascend to the premiership and refrain from visiting Yasukuni, Watanabe argues, it could actually have a positive effect on Japan-South Korea relations, especially given her hawkish reputation on security. Koizumi, at 44, could become Japan’s youngest postwar prime minister, but he too has avoided giving a clear answer about future visits to the shrine.
The uncertainty is not lost on Japan’s neighbors. After Ishiba announced in early September that he would step down as LDP president, South Korean media speculated that Seoul-Tokyo ties might deteriorate no matter who takes the helm in Tokyo. The memory of Japan’s colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945 remains raw, and symbolic gestures like Yasukuni visits carry heavy weight. Ishiba himself, known for not visiting the shrine, made a point of traveling to Busan to meet President Lee—his last overseas trip as premier, underscoring the importance of stable bilateral relations.
Li Hao, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate Schools for Law and Politics, underscored the stakes in an interview with Kyodo News: “A Yasukuni visit by Japan’s leader would have a ‘devastating effect’” on relations with China and South Korea. Li added that, as victims of Japan’s wartime aggression, both countries “can never compromise on the ‘extremely sensitive’ issue.” He also suggested that Japan “should be proud of having chosen the right path for 80 years since the end of the war, and I believe it has an obligation to tell China not to make the same mistake.”
Despite the heated debate, political analyst Norio Toyoshima told Kyodo News that Japan’s foreign policy toward South Korea and China is unlikely to see dramatic change after Ishiba’s departure. All five LDP candidates, he noted, are certain to emphasize the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance, even as they differ on how to handle regional sensitivities. The other three candidates in the LDP race—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, and former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi—are all Harvard-educated and generally viewed as moderate or pro-Chinese in their outlook.
Meanwhile, the Busan summit between Ishiba and Lee offered a glimpse of what pragmatic diplomacy can achieve, even amid underlying historical tensions. The leaders agreed to convene a panel of experts to promote cooperation in science and technology, and to deepen discussions on demographic and social challenges facing both countries. They also confirmed that Japan and South Korea would work closely with the United States on regional security issues, including North Korea’s denuclearization and broader Indo-Pacific concerns.
After the meeting, Ishiba told reporters that mutual visits between the two countries’ leaders—what he called “shuttle diplomacy”—should become more frequent, not just once or twice a year. He emphasized that stronger ties would benefit not only Japan and South Korea, but the broader region and world as well.
As the LDP prepares to choose its next leader, the outcome will send a powerful signal about Japan’s willingness to balance domestic pressures with the sensitivities of its neighbors. The next prime minister’s approach to Yasukuni will be watched closely—not just in Tokyo, but in Seoul, Beijing, and beyond. The stakes are high, and the path forward remains anything but certain.
