Just weeks into her historic tenure as Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi has ignited a diplomatic firestorm with China, sending ripples across East Asia and beyond. At the heart of the controversy: Takaichi’s public suggestion that Chinese military action against Taiwan—specifically, the use of warships and military force—could justify a Japanese armed response if such actions posed an existential threat to Japan. The fallout from her remarks has triggered a cascade of political, economic, and diplomatic consequences, underscoring the fragility and complexity of Japan-China relations in a rapidly shifting regional landscape.
The saga began on November 7, 2025, when Prime Minister Takaichi, testifying before a parliamentary committee, was asked about Japan’s potential response should China take military action against the self-governed island of Taiwan. Her reply was unequivocal: “If warships are used, accompanied by the exercise of military force, then however you look at it, it could be a situation posing an existential threat to the country.” According to NPR, these comments went further than those of her predecessors, who had traditionally avoided specifying how Japan might react to a Taiwan crisis.
Japan’s post-World War II constitution famously prohibits the nation from waging war, restricting the use of force strictly to self-defense. However, security legislation passed in 2015 expanded the scope, allowing Japan to defend itself—or a close ally like the United States—if attacked in a way that threatens Japan’s survival. Takaichi’s remarks, then, didn’t come out of nowhere, but they did break new ground in their clarity and directness. As The Express noted, previous Japanese leaders had voiced concerns about the Taiwan issue but stopped short of publicly outlining potential military responses.
Beijing’s reaction was swift and severe. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declared that Takaichi’s statements had “seriously damaged the political foundation of Japan-China relations,” demanding a full retraction. “Japan must immediately correct and retract its vile remarks,” echoed Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, warning that “otherwise, Japan must bear all the consequences.” China’s Premier Li Qiang, for his part, canceled any plans to meet with Takaichi at the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa, a move confirmed by Mao Ning on November 17.
The rhetoric escalated sharply on social media when China’s Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted a now-deleted message interpreted as a threat against Takaichi: “the filthy head that recklessly intrudes must be cut off without a moment’s hesitation.” The Japanese government immediately protested, and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi labeled the post “extremely inappropriate,” according to The Express. In response, both countries summoned each other’s ambassadors for official protests, with China’s Foreign Ministry calling in Japan’s envoy on November 13, and Japan returning the gesture the following day.
China didn’t stop at diplomatic warnings. On November 14, the government issued a travel advisory, cautioning Chinese citizens against visiting Japan and citing Takaichi’s remarks as having made Japan less safe. The move could have serious economic implications, given that 7.5 million Chinese tourists visited Japan in the first nine months of 2025—about a quarter of all visitors, according to The Express. China’s Education Ministry also issued a warning to students, referencing recent crimes against Chinese nationals in Japan, though it stopped short of advising them not to travel. Meanwhile, China’s coast guard announced patrols around disputed islands claimed by both nations, and four Chinese vessels briefly entered Japanese territorial waters, prompting condemnation from Tokyo.
Japan, for its part, has tried to tamp down the crisis. Foreign Minister Motegi reiterated on November 14 that Japan’s stance on Taiwan “remains unchanged,” and a senior envoy was dispatched to Beijing on November 17 for discussions with Chinese officials in an attempt to defuse tensions. The details of these talks have not been made public, but the effort signals Tokyo’s desire to avoid a further escalation.
Behind the scenes, the U.S.-Japan alliance looms large. Japan’s security legislation, passed under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe—Takaichi’s political mentor—permits collective self-defense, meaning Japan could, in theory, assist an ally like the U.S. if an existential threat arises. But as Adam Liff, a professor of East Asian International Relations at Indiana University Bloomington, told NPR, “I think it’s pretty unlikely that we’ll see Japan move away from this long-standing position of effective strategic ambiguity.” He added, “Signaling that Japan cares, Japan has a stake in this without necessarily committing to any particular course of action, is one thing that I think successive leaders have tried to do in order to bolster deterrence. And this goes back decades.”
Still, Takaichi’s hardline approach is unmistakable. She has accelerated Japan’s defense budget increases and called for a review of the country’s core security strategy and even its longstanding no-nuclear-weapons pledges. Whether she possesses the political capital to overhaul decades-old policies remains uncertain; her Liberal Democratic Party governs as a minority and relies on a fragile coalition, raising doubts about the durability of her agenda.
Domestically, Takaichi’s approval ratings are robust—nearly 70%, according to Kyodo News. Yet the Japanese public is divided over the Taiwan issue. A recent poll found that 49% support exercising the right to self-defense if a conflict erupts over Taiwan, while 44% are opposed. Keio University Professor Emeritus Yoshihide Soeya suggested to NPR that Takaichi’s remarks may have been intended to appeal to a narrow base of hardline conservatives. “Only a select group of supporters should be happy about this statement. And I think Takaichi should know that. And in that overall context, it’s a reckless statement for a Japanese Prime Minister to say this.”
In the wake of the uproar, Takaichi has refused to retract her remarks but has pledged to refrain from commenting on specific hypothetical scenarios in the future. This balancing act—projecting strength without committing to concrete actions—reflects the difficult tightrope Japan must walk as it navigates its alliance with the United States, its economic interdependence with China, and the ever-present shadow of regional instability.
As the dust settles, Japanese officials are working tirelessly to repair relations and prevent further fallout. But with China’s travel advisory in effect, diplomatic channels strained, and the specter of economic retaliation looming, the episode serves as a stark reminder of how quickly words can reshape the delicate balance of power in East Asia.
Whether Takaichi’s boldness will pay dividends for Japan’s security or simply deepen the rift with its powerful neighbor remains to be seen. For now, both Tokyo and Beijing seem determined to avoid open conflict, but the path forward is anything but certain.
