Ivory Coast, one of West Africa’s economic powerhouses and the world’s top cocoa producer, is once again at the center of political turbulence as President Alassane Ouattara pushes ahead with his bid for a controversial fourth term in the October 2025 presidential elections. The move has ignited a wave of protests, drawn sharp rebukes from opposition leaders, and rekindled fears of the kind of violence that marred the country’s recent past.
President Ouattara, now 83, announced at the end of July that he would seek re-election, justifying his decision by pointing to what he described as “unprecedented security, economic, and monetary challenges” facing the nation. According to the Financial Times, Ouattara argued that his experience is necessary to steer the country through these turbulent times, citing persistent poverty and unemployment as urgent issues. Yet, many Ivorians and observers see his candidacy as a troubling sign of democratic backsliding.
Ouattara’s claim to eligibility rests on a 2016 constitutional amendment, which he says reset the presidential term limits, allowing him to run again despite already serving three terms. This legal maneuver echoes a broader regional trend, as leaders across West Africa employ constitutional changes and legal tactics—often dubbed “lawfare”—to extend their time in office. In neighboring Togo, for example, President Faure Gnassingbé recently shifted to a parliamentary system, enabling him to remain in power as prime minister after two decades as president.
The opposition, however, sees Ouattara’s move as a blatant attempt to cling to power. Former President Laurent Gbagbo, who now leads the African People’s Party–Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI), has emerged as a vocal critic. At a massive rally in Abidjan’s working-class suburb of Yopougon on August 9, Gbagbo denounced the fourth-term bid as a violation of the spirit of the Ivorian Constitution. “This is a dangerous and unconstitutional overreach of power,” he declared, while also demanding the release of political activists detained during the government’s crackdown on dissent (as reported by Channels TV).
Gbagbo’s own political career has been marred by controversy. After refusing to concede defeat to Ouattara in the disputed 2010 election, Gbagbo’s supporters clashed with pro-Ouattara forces, resulting in a civil war that left at least 3,000 dead and half a million displaced, according to Financial Times. Gbagbo was subsequently tried at the International Criminal Court in The Hague—the first former head of state to face such prosecution—and acquitted in 2019. Yet, a domestic conviction linked to the civil war continues to bar him from running in this year’s election.
Another major opposition figure, Tidjane Thiam, a former Credit Suisse chief executive, has also been excluded from the race. In April 2025, an Abidjan court struck Thiam from the electoral roll, citing his French citizenship at the time of registration, even though he renounced it in March. Thiam’s allies argue that the move is politically motivated and that he faces the risk of arrest if he returns to Ivory Coast. As a result, he has been forced to campaign from abroad, mainly from Paris. Noël Akossi Bendjo, a member of Thiam’s party, told The Economist, “It is really an autocratic state.”
The government’s exclusion of both Gbagbo and Thiam has left the opposition scrambling for a new standard-bearer. Despite forming an alliance and mounting large demonstrations, they have yet to rally around a single candidate with the August 26 nomination deadline fast approaching. The opposition has also demanded an audit of the voters’ register and reforms to the electoral commission, but the head of the commission has ruled out such measures, according to Financial Times.
In the meantime, mass protests have become the opposition’s main weapon. Tens of thousands of Ivorians flooded the streets of Abidjan on August 9 and again in the days that followed, demanding free and fair elections and the reinstatement of banned candidates. Observers, including The Economist, estimate these are the largest demonstrations since 2020. Thankfully, the rallies have remained largely peaceful, but the memory of past violence looms large. The opposition’s boycott of the 2020 election led to deadly clashes that claimed at least a dozen lives.
Many Ivorians are deeply anxious about the possibility of renewed unrest. Kacou Lucien, an entrepreneur in Abidjan, summed up the prevailing mood to Financial Times: “We pray the 2010 situation doesn’t repeat itself. If there’s no peace, how can I do my business?”
Despite the mounting opposition, Ouattara retains significant support. His party controls key state institutions, and he is credited with overseeing a decade of strong economic growth and relative stability. The International Monetary Fund projects Ivory Coast’s GDP will grow by 6.3% in 2025, matching the robust average of the past ten years. Foreign investors and many ordinary Ivorians see his government as a bulwark against the chaos and jihadist violence that has plagued neighboring countries.
Still, critics warn that the president’s determination to hold onto power could erode the democratic progress Ivory Coast has made since the end of the last civil war. “His recalcitrance bodes ill for democracy in Ivory Coast and the region,” wrote The Economist. Beverly Ochieng of Control Risks, a political consultancy, observed that Ouattara “could probably win an election even without excluding opponents.” Yet, the exclusion of major rivals and the crackdown on dissent threaten to delegitimize the process and deepen divisions.
Landry Kuyo, a political analyst at NCI, a private television station with government ties, offered a note of caution: the opposition must unite and avoid “violence and talk of a coup d’état.” He maintained that Ouattara’s candidacy is legal under the current constitution, but acknowledged the risks of further unrest.
With the deadline for candidate registration set for the final week of August, time is running out for the opposition to mount an effective challenge. As the October 25 vote approaches, all eyes are on Ivory Coast. Whether the country can chart a peaceful and democratic course, or whether it will slip back into conflict, remains an open—and deeply consequential—question.
For now, Ivorians wait, hopeful that this pivotal election will not repeat the tragedies of the past, but instead offer a chance for stability, renewal, and genuine democratic choice.
