Ivory Coast, a country often hailed as one of West Africa’s economic engines, is heading to the polls on Saturday, October 25, 2025, for a presidential election that has already stirred considerable tension and uncertainty. President Alassane Ouattara, at 83 years old, is seeking a controversial fourth term, a move that has both supporters and critics on edge amid a backdrop of political exclusion, economic growth, and persistent security challenges.
The world’s largest cocoa producer, with a population of 32 million, has seen its share of political drama in the past, and this election is shaping up to be no exception. The ballot features Ouattara facing off against four other candidates, including two former government ministers and Simone Gbagbo, the ex-wife and former spokesperson for his predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo. Yet, the absence of key opposition leaders—most notably former President Laurent Gbagbo himself and Tidjane Thiam, the former Credit Suisse chief executive—has cast a long shadow over the legitimacy of the vote.
Both Gbagbo and Thiam were barred from running, sparking accusations of political foul play and eroding trust in the democratic process. Thiam, who renounced his French nationality earlier in March 2025 in an attempt to comply with Ivorian law, was ultimately rejected by a local court. He described the race as shaping up to be a “coronation,” according to Reuters, underscoring the widespread sense that Ouattara’s victory is all but assured.
Ouattara’s path to this election has not been without controversy. After coming to power in 2011 following a violent civil war triggered by the refusal of Laurent Gbagbo to concede defeat, Ouattara has overseen nearly 15 years of steady economic growth. Under his administration, Ivory Coast’s gold output has soared from around 10 metric tons in 2012 to over 58 tons in 2024, with ambitions to reach 100 tons by 2030, as reported by Reuters. The country’s economy grew by 6% in 2024, according to the World Bank, and infrastructure projects—from new roads to a 60,000-seat stadium—have transformed many parts of the nation.
Government spokesperson and former prime minister Patrick Achi told Reuters, “The whole economic system was really down. The education system was down, health was down, (the) road system was down.” He credited Ouattara’s administration with rebuilding these critical sectors, noting that a fourth term would focus on attracting private sector investment to create jobs for the 400,000 Ivorians graduating each year. “If we cannot grow the private sector fast enough to absorb them… then that becomes a threat,” Achi warned.
Despite these achievements, many Ivorians, especially the youth, remain skeptical. With more than three-quarters of the population under 35 and a poverty rate of 37.5%, the benefits of growth have not reached everyone. Placide Konan, a 33-year-old slam poet in Abidjan, voiced his frustration to the Associated Press: “People can no longer make ends meet. You have to be very lucky, or a bit of a magician, to be able to live comfortably.”
This sentiment is echoed by Dominique Yapo, a 37-year-old cooking gas vendor, who told Reuters, “We feel like nothing is being done to improve the situation. Ouattara’s supporters are the ones who find work easily.” The disconnect between headline economic numbers and daily reality is a recurring theme in conversations across the country.
The political landscape has been further complicated by the government’s response to dissent. In the lead-up to the election, authorities have deployed more than 40,000 security personnel nationwide and enforced what Amnesty International described as a “disproportionate” ban on protests. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested, and some have received prison terms of up to three years for offenses such as disturbing public order. At least three people have been killed in election-related unrest, according to the Associated Press. The government maintains that these restrictions are temporary and limited to the election period, with Justice Minister Sansan Kambile stating that the administration remains committed to respecting freedom of assembly.
Ivory Coast’s fast-growing mining sector, a key part of Ouattara’s economic diversification strategy, is also feeling the uncertainty. Mining companies have begun stockpiling fuel, cyanide, caustic soda, and explosives, and are relocating staff closer to their sites in anticipation of possible unrest. “Contingency measures are being scaled up as visibility worsens,” one senior industry source told Reuters. “We’re not saying the country is unsafe, but we’ve seen this before—same cause, same consequences.”
Memories of past violence are never far from the surface. The 2010–2011 crisis that brought Ouattara to power claimed over 3,000 lives, and clashes during the 2020 election left at least 85 dead. Pre-election demonstrations this October have already resulted in fatalities and mass arrests. Still, consultants like Tiffany Wognaih of J.S. Held note that, despite the tensions, there has been “no capital flight or repricing of risk,” suggesting that Ivory Coast remains a stable anchor in Francophone West Africa.
Security concerns extend beyond politics and economics. The country’s northern border with Mali and Burkina Faso—both plagued by insurgency and instability—presents an ongoing challenge. As neighboring countries lose ground to armed groups, Ivory Coast’s military, regarded as one of the region’s most sophisticated, faces mounting pressure to maintain stability. “The security conditions are fragile and exposed in the north of the country,” Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with Chatham House, told the Associated Press. “That is not the fault of the Ivorian government, (but) that is the reality of the regional situation.”
Ouattara, for his part, has brushed off concerns about his age and health, insisting that his candidacy is driven by the country’s “unprecedented security, economic and monetary” challenges. At a recent rally, he addressed the youth directly: “I have always been committed to offering the best to our youth so that you can start businesses, work, learn and be independent.”
Supporters like Assita Karamoko, a hairdresser in Abidjan, see the transformation firsthand. “If you left Côte d’Ivoire to live abroad for a few years and came back today, you would not recognize your neighborhood,” she said, highlighting the visible changes in infrastructure and public services. Yet, as analyst Paul Melly pointed out, “It is still very hard to translate all of these into enough more jobs for young people. In terms of youth employment and business opportunity, there is still a long way to go.”
As Ivorians prepare to vote, the stakes are high. The country stands at a crossroads, balancing economic promise, political uncertainty, and the hopes of a young and restless population. Whether the election delivers stability or sows further discord will shape Ivory Coast’s future for years to come.
