Ivory Coast, a nation perched along the western Atlantic and famed as the world’s largest cocoa and cashew nut producer, stands at a pivotal political crossroads. On Saturday, October 25, 2025, more than 8.7 million registered voters are set to cast ballots in a presidential election shadowed by controversy, constitutional wrangling, and palpable tension. The stakes, as always in this West African powerhouse of 32 million people, are high—not only for the candidates but for the future stability of the region.
Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, now 83, is seeking a fourth term in office, a move that has sparked widespread anger and debate across the country. According to AP News and Al Jazeera, the Ivorian constitution limits presidents to two terms, but Ouattara and his supporters argue that a 2016 constitutional overhaul reset the clock, making him eligible for two more terms beginning with the 2020 election. This legal interpretation has been fiercely contested by opposition figures and much of the public, fueling protests and raising fears of renewed violence in a country with a troubled electoral past.
Thursday, October 23, marked the official end of a tense campaign period. Ouattara’s supporters, thousands strong, gathered in central Abidjan, waving banners and celebrating their candidate beneath the city’s gleaming new bridges—a testament to the infrastructure boom that has defined his rule. In a moment of defiance, the president declared to his opponents, “The dogs are barking but the caravan has moved already.” His confidence is echoed on the streets of Abidjan, where his campaign posters dominate, while those of his rivals are conspicuously scarce.
Meanwhile, the main opposition parties, weakened by the disqualification of their most prominent leaders, held their own rallies in the country’s interior. Former first lady Simone Gbagbo, now 73 and head of the Movement of Capable Generations party, addressed supporters in Aboisso. Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister and candidate for the Democratic Congress, rallied in Bouake, promising generational change and a focus on private sector investment. Yet, as analysts cited by AP News note, these candidates face long odds—especially after the dramatic exclusion of two major challengers, Tidjane Thiam and Laurent Gbagbo.
The barring of Thiam, a 63-year-old former head of Credit Suisse and leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, stunned many Ivorians. The Constitutional Council ruled that his erstwhile dual French nationality—renounced just months before—disqualified him. Thiam, a cousin of Ivory Coast’s first president, had built a broad base of support, particularly among young voters. Laurent Gbagbo, 80, the country’s former president and Ouattara’s archrival, was also blocked from running due to a criminal conviction linked to the deadly 2011 civil war—a conflict that left more than 3,000 dead after Gbagbo refused to concede defeat.
The government’s crackdown on dissent has been swift and severe. In the weeks leading up to the vote, demonstrations were banned and at least 237 protesters from the Common Front political movement were arrested. By October 21, 58 had been sentenced to 36 months in prison, according to Al Jazeera. The heavy hand of the state is visible everywhere: more than 44,000 police and military personnel have been deployed nationwide to maintain order, and many shops in Abidjan have shuttered their doors amid fears of violence.
Ivory Coast’s history of electoral violence looms large over this contest. The scars of the 2011 crisis, which spiraled into civil war, remain fresh. Back then, ethnic and regional tensions were inflamed by political rivalries, particularly the divisive concept of “Ivoirite”—the idea that some groups were more authentically Ivorian than others. Ouattara’s own legitimacy was once challenged on these grounds, with accusations of foreign ancestry. Since taking power in December 2010, however, he has been credited with restoring a measure of unity, launching ambitious infrastructure projects, and overseeing impressive economic growth. The World Bank notes that during his first decade in office, GDP rose by an average of 8.2 percent annually, with growth continuing even through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Yet, beneath the surface, many Ivorians voice frustration. Economic advancement, critics say, has not been evenly distributed. According to Al Jazeera, more than 39 percent of the population was living below the national poverty line in 2023, with stark disparities between urban and rural areas. The richest 20 percent consume six times more than the poorest 20 percent. Infrastructure, education, and healthcare remain unevenly available, and climate change is exacerbating hardship in rural communities, where heatwaves disrupt the cocoa harvest and food security is increasingly fragile.
Social inequality isn’t the only issue weighing on voters’ minds. Security concerns are ever-present, as Ivory Coast grapples with the threat of armed groups spilling over from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso. Ouattara has made stability a central campaign theme, touting increased defense spending, troop deployments in the north, and new military hardware from China. The memory of the 2016 Grand Bassam attack and subsequent raids in the north remain vivid reminders of the country’s vulnerability.
Despite the controversies and the palpable sense of unease, Ouattara remains the clear favorite among those allowed to run. His ruling party, the Rally of Houphouetistes for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), is buoyed by state resources and a well-oiled political machine. Analysts like Beverly Ochieng of Control Risks, speaking to Al Jazeera, observe, “With each electoral cycle, the playing field continues to be uneven due to strong institutional control and influence by the ruling camp over the political and security apparatus.”
Other candidates, such as Ahoua Don Mello—once a spokesperson for Laurent Gbagbo and now an independent—face an uphill struggle. Henriette Lagou Adjoua, leader of a centrist coalition and a campaigner for women in politics, is also in the race, though her chances are widely seen as slim. The election rules require an absolute majority to win outright; if no candidate achieves this, a second round will be held.
As Ivorians prepare to vote, the air is thick with both hope and apprehension. The streets of Abidjan, usually vibrant and bustling, have quieted. The nation’s future hinges not only on who emerges victorious, but on whether the process can unfold peacefully and credibly. As one young Ouattara supporter told AP News, “Ouattara will win in the first round,” dismissing rivals as “opponents just for the sake of opposition.”
With the world watching and the memories of past turmoil still fresh, Ivory Coast faces a defining moment. Whether Saturday’s vote will mark another step forward or a painful repeat of history remains to be seen.
