Classified Israeli military intelligence, uncovered by a joint investigation of three prominent news outlets, has revealed that approximately 83% of Palestinians killed in Gaza since October 7, 2023, were civilians. This staggering figure, first reported by Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham of +972 Magazine and Local Call and Guardian correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison, stands in stark contrast to official Israeli government claims of a historically low civilian-to-combatant kill ratio. The investigation, published on August 21, 2025, and corroborated by additional reporting from ScheerPost and Common Dreams, indicates a civilian death rate in Gaza that is nearly unprecedented in modern warfare.
The classified data, derived from the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) own Military Intelligence Directorate, identified by name 8,900 fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or probably dead by May 2025. At that point, the official Palestinian death toll in Gaza stood at 52,928, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its count. Independent peer-reviewed studies and Israeli officials have either supported these figures or suggested they may be an undercount.
To put these numbers in perspective, the 83% civilian kill rate in Gaza is far higher than similar figures from other recent conflicts. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University, civilian deaths accounted for 57% in Bosnia during 1992-95, 29-34% during the Syrian civil war from 2012-24, 10-22% in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and just 8-12% in the US-led war in Afghanistan from 2001-21. The only modern event with a higher civilian death rate was the genocide in Srebrenica, where about 92% of victims were civilians.
One unnamed intelligence source told Abraham and Graham-Harrison, “People are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death. If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200% of Hamas operatives in the area.” This comment reflects a broader pattern identified by the investigation: in one instance, an IDF battalion stationed in Rafah killed around 100 Palestinians, labeling all as “terrorists.” An officer from the unit later testified that all but two of the victims were unarmed.
The findings have shattered Israeli government assertions. In May 2024, Israeli government spokesperson Avi Hyman claimed, “Israel is setting the new gold standard for urban warfare with what appears to be the lowest civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio in history.” These claims have been echoed by supporters worldwide, including John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the US Military Academy at West Point, who said in January 2025, “Israel has done more and implemented more measures to prevent civilian harm than any military in the history of urban warfare.” However, the classified data tells a different story.
Retired IDF General Itzhak Brik was blunt in his assessment: “There is absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening. It is just one big bluff.” He continued, “They lie non-stop—both the military echelon and the political echelon. In every raid, the IDF spokesperson’s announcements said: ‘Hundreds of terrorists were killed.’ It’s true that hundreds were killed, but they weren’t terrorists.”
Following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the IDF dramatically loosened its rules of engagement, effectively allowing for an unlimited number of civilian casualties when targeting even a single Hamas member, regardless of their rank. This policy shift led to a series of massacres, most notably the October 31, 2023 bombing in the Jabalia refugee camp, which killed more than 120 civilians in an attempt to target one Hamas operative.
The IDF’s use of massive US-supplied 1,000- and 2,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs, capable of leveling entire city blocks, and the employment of artificial intelligence for target selection, have exacerbated the civilian toll. United Nations human rights officials have stated that Israel’s use of 2,000-pound bombs likely violates international law due to their disproportionate impact on civilians. American volunteer surgeons working in Gaza have described treating—or sending to morgues—young children who appeared to have been deliberately shot in the chest and head by IDF snipers. More recently, IDF whistleblowers reported being ordered to fire on crowds of starving civilians at aid distribution points operated by the US-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Despite the gravity of these findings, the IDF has confirmed the existence of the Military Intelligence Directorate database but disputed the figures presented in the investigation. They have not, however, provided alternative data or a detailed rebuttal. In a leaked recording published last week, former IDF general Aharon Haliva is heard accepting the Gaza Health Ministry’s death toll, stating, “The fact that there are already 50,000 dead in Gaza is necessary and required for future generations. It doesn’t matter now if they are children.” Such statements are now being cited in South Africa’s ongoing case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), where the applicants must prove intent to commit genocide under Article II of the Genocide Convention.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has reached catastrophic proportions. The United Nations has formally declared a famine in the region and warned of the risk of mass starvation unless urgent humanitarian aid is allowed in. According to the most recent figures from the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel’s 685-day assault and siege have left at least 62,122 Palestinians dead—most of them women and children—more than 156,700 wounded, and thousands more missing and presumed dead beneath the rubble. At least 271 Palestinians, including 112 children, have died from starvation.
Meanwhile, Israel is pressing forward with Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, an intensified military campaign aimed at conquering, occupying, and, according to critics, ethnically cleansing Palestinians in numbers that could surpass even the Nakba of 1948, during which more than 750,000 Arabs were forcibly expelled from their homes.
As the world watches, the debate over Israel’s conduct in Gaza is intensifying. Supporters of the Israeli government maintain that extraordinary efforts have been made to prevent civilian harm, citing the use of advanced technology and warnings to evacuate targeted areas. Critics, however, point to the mounting evidence of indiscriminate violence, shifting rules of engagement, and a civilian death toll that dwarfs those of other modern conflicts. The reality on the ground, as revealed by the IDF’s own intelligence and the testimony of those involved, is forcing a reckoning with the true human cost of the war in Gaza.
With famine declared, international scrutiny mounting, and the civilian toll continuing to rise, the crisis in Gaza stands as one of the most devastating and contentious episodes in recent history. The coming weeks will test not only the resolve of those involved but also the world’s willingness to confront the consequences of modern warfare.
