As Iraq prepares for its sixth parliamentary election since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, the stakes could hardly be higher—for Baghdad, for Tehran, and for Washington. The November 11, 2025 vote arrives at a time when Iran, long a dominant player in Iraqi politics, finds its regional influence under unprecedented strain. The outcome will not only shape Iraq’s next government but could also redefine the balance of power across the Middle East.
For over two decades, Iran has relied on Iraq as a central pillar of its regional strategy. Since the ouster of Saddam Hussein, Tehran has leveraged its ties to Iraq’s Shiite parties and allied armed factions to maintain a decisive voice in Baghdad’s corridors of power. This influence has been especially visible in the appointment of prime ministers, including the current leader, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who owes his position to the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework coalition.
But recent events have left Iran reeling. According to AFP, Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Huthis have suffered significant blows from Israeli military campaigns. Iran itself endured a fierce and unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June 2025, with brief U.S. participation, and saw its regional standing further diminish after the 2024 overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria—a major ally. As a result, Tehran is now seeking to consolidate what influence remains in Iraq, even as its ability to dictate terms regionally has waned.
"Tehran retains its influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power," political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari told AFP. This view is echoed by Munqith Dagher, director of the IIACSS think tank, who observed, "Iran is no longer in a position to impose its conditions. But that does not mean it will not try to exert influence."
Iraq itself has long walked a tightrope between its two powerful neighbors, Tehran and Washington. The country has been a battleground for proxy skirmishes, with Iran-backed militias occasionally targeting U.S. forces stationed in Iraq—attacks that have drawn American retaliatory strikes. However, during the recent 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, these groups notably refrained from direct involvement, even after the U.S. joined Israeli bombing campaigns.
The upcoming election is being closely watched by both regional and international observers. More than 21 million Iraqis are eligible to vote, choosing from a pool of over 7,700 candidates—nearly a third of whom are women—for 329 parliamentary seats. The new legislature will be responsible for selecting Iraq’s next president (traditionally a Kurd), prime minister (typically a Shiite), and parliament speaker (usually a Sunni), reflecting the country’s power-sharing system.
Yet, enthusiasm for the vote appears to be at a historic low. Chatham House, a respected think tank, predicts that participation "may fall to the lowest level since 2003." The group warns that Iraqis increasingly see elections "not as a way to influence policy, but as a performative act with little impact on governance." Disillusionment is widespread, with many citizens doubting that their votes will bring meaningful change.
One of the most dramatic developments in the run-up to the election is the boycott called by Moqtada Sadr, an influential Shiite cleric whose faction won the most seats in the 2021 general election before withdrawing from parliament. Sadr has denounced the November vote as "flawed," dominated by "sectarian, ethnic and partisan interests," and urged his supporters to stay away from the polls. His absence leaves the field wide open for the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework, which currently controls the legislature and backs Prime Minister Sudani.
The United States, for its part, is determined to counter Iran’s influence in Iraq. Washington has imposed sanctions on Iraqis accused of helping Tehran evade U.S. restrictions and has expanded its economic footprint through contracts in oil, technology, and healthcare. "There is a real desire on the part of the US to change the domestic political landscape," former Sudani adviser Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie told AFP. Tamer Badawi, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated that Washington expects the next prime minister "to deliver tangible steps that limit Iranian influence, regardless of the electoral outcome."
The U.S. maintains about 2,500 troops in Iraq and another 900 in Syria as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State group. Mark Savaya, the new U.S. special envoy to Iraq, has been outspoken about the need for a fully sovereign Iraq, "free from malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies." He recently declared, "There is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state."
The election will also include the autonomous Kurdistan region, where the rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) remains fierce. The KDP, led by President Masoud Barzani, is widely credited with championing stability, economic growth, and a pragmatic approach to governance—qualities that have helped the region weather Iraq’s broader political turbulence. The PUK, by contrast, has faced criticism for internal divisions, governance failures, and accusations of suppressing opposition voices, particularly in its Sulaimani stronghold. Reports indicate that the PUK has imprisoned opposition leaders, confiscated properties, and seized media outlets, fueling further mistrust among voters.
Iraq’s diversity is reflected in its election laws, which reserve at least 25 percent of parliamentary seats for women and nine seats for minorities. This year’s ballot features a record number of female candidates, a sign of gradual progress even as broader political frustrations persist.
Observers note that the outcome of the November 11 vote will reverberate far beyond Iraq’s borders. For Iran, the election represents a last-ditch effort to preserve its influence in a region where its traditional levers of power are slipping. For the United States, it is a test of whether economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military presence can successfully counter Tehran’s reach. And for ordinary Iraqis, it is another chapter in a long struggle to build a government that truly reflects their aspirations.
As the polls approach, the world is watching to see whether Iraq will remain a battleground for foreign interests or finally chart a course toward genuine sovereignty and self-determination. The answer, as always, will be written at the ballot box—but whether voters feel empowered to make their voices heard remains the biggest question of all.
