In a week marked by intensifying rhetoric and diplomatic maneuvering, Iran’s top security chief made high-profile visits to Iraq and Lebanon, even as officials in Tehran threatened to upend global oil markets by restricting Western access to the Strait of Hormuz. The developments have sent ripples through the region and beyond, raising the specter of economic turmoil and renewed geopolitical tensions.
On a Wednesday in August 2025, the president of Lebanon delivered a pointed message to Iran’s visiting security chief, making it clear that Lebanon "rejects all interference." According to reporting from Daily Sun, this rare public rebuke underscored the delicate balance many Middle Eastern countries are trying to strike as Iran asserts itself both diplomatically and militarily across the region. The visit, which also included a stop in Iraq, reflects Tehran’s ongoing efforts to shore up influence among allies and partners at a time of mounting international pressure.
But the diplomatic forays were only one part of Iran’s assertive posture this month. On August 24, 2025, Hossein Shariatmadari, a prominent representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader, took to the airwaves with a stark warning: Iran could impose restrictions on Western shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move he claimed would send global oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel and deal a punishing economic blow to Iran’s adversaries. "We can impose restrictions against the United States, France, Britain and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to navigate," Shariatmadari told state broadcaster, as reported by Kayhan newspaper. "Just by announcing such a restriction, the oil price will surge to $200, and the biggest economic blow will be dealt to the enemy."
This isn’t the first time Shariatmadari has floated the idea of using the world’s most critical oil chokepoint as leverage. Last year, in response to European sanctions on Iranian airlines, he called for the closure of the waterway to tankers and cargo ships from what he termed "hostile countries." At that time, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that no such threat had been officially issued, though he acknowledged that Iran possessed the capability to do so. The idea resurfaced again after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities earlier this year, with various Iranian officials returning to the theme of using Hormuz as a bargaining chip.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is more than just a geographic feature; it’s a vital artery through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports flow. Disruptions here can send shockwaves through global energy markets, affecting everything from gasoline prices in the United States to heating bills in Europe. According to Javan newspaper, which is linked to the Revolutionary Guards, "Europe and the United States would get miserable" if Tehran restricted oil flows. The paper cited a shipping industry figure as saying, "Even countries with no link to the Iran-Israel war will suffer losses." Greater instability in the Middle East, the paper argued, would inevitably drive up shipping and insurance costs worldwide.
Iran has never attempted a full closure of the strait, but it has repeatedly disrupted shipping by seizing commercial vessels. These actions, while falling short of a total blockade, have kept the threat alive and served as a reminder of Iran’s ability to create headaches for the global economy. In June 2025, following US airstrikes, Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the strait, though state media noted that the measure was non-binding. Around the same time, Iran’s military reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf after Israeli strikes, according to Reuters. The mines, however, were not deployed—a move US officials interpreted as Tehran weighing a serious escalation that could cripple global commerce.
The prospect of a closure has drawn sharp warnings from Western officials. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn’t mince words in June, cautioning that such a move would amount to "economic suicide" for Iran. "If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them," Rubio said, urging China to use its influence to dissuade Tehran from taking such drastic action. European leaders echoed these concerns. Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, described any closure as "extremely dangerous," while UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy labeled it "a monumental act of self-harm, making a diplomatic solution even harder."
These warnings reflect the high stakes at play. The Strait of Hormuz is not only critical for oil exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, but also for global consumers who depend on stable energy supplies. Any significant disruption could send markets into turmoil, with higher prices reverberating through the global economy. Even the mere suggestion of a closure, as Shariatmadari pointed out, can have an immediate psychological effect on traders and policymakers alike.
Iranian officials, for their part, have sought to frame the threat as a legitimate response to what they see as escalating hostility from the West. The non-binding parliamentary measure to close the strait, passed in June, came on the heels of US airstrikes and increased sanctions. The moves by Iran’s military, including the loading of naval mines, were interpreted by some analysts as both a signal of intent and a warning shot—an attempt to remind adversaries of the risks involved in further confrontation.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic front remains fraught. The visit by Iran’s security chief to Iraq and Lebanon was seen by some regional observers as an effort to rally support and demonstrate Tehran’s staying power amid mounting external pressure. Yet the cool reception in Beirut, where the Lebanese president explicitly rejected outside interference, highlighted the limits of Iran’s influence and the wariness with which even traditional partners are approaching the current crisis.
All this comes against a backdrop of ongoing instability in the Middle East. The region has witnessed a series of confrontations, from Israeli strikes and US military actions to tit-for-tat attacks on commercial shipping. The cumulative effect has been to raise the risk of miscalculation, with potentially devastating consequences for regional and global stability.
As the world watches anxiously, the question remains: will Iran follow through on its threats, or are these moves calculated brinkmanship designed to extract concessions from the West? For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but the warnings have been issued—and the world’s oil markets are holding their breath.
Whether this standoff will escalate further or give way to renewed diplomacy is anyone’s guess, but for now, the region’s delicate balance hangs in the balance, with the Strait of Hormuz at the very center of the storm.
