As tensions simmer along the volatile Pakistan-Afghanistan border, a new chapter in regional diplomacy is unfolding. In the wake of deadly clashes, failed negotiations, and rising suspicions, Iran has stepped forward with an offer to mediate between Islamabad and Kabul—a move welcomed by Pakistan but shadowed by deep-rooted mistrust, shifting alliances, and the ever-present specter of cross-border terrorism.
The latest crisis erupted in early October 2025, when explosions in Kabul triggered a sharp escalation. The Taliban government squarely blamed Pakistan for the blasts, prompting a retaliatory military offensive that spilled over the border. The fighting, which began on the night of October 11 and continued into the next morning, left more than 70 people dead—including civilians—and hundreds injured, according to reports cited by Millennium Post. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) reported that 23 Pakistani troops were martyred and 200 Taliban and affiliated terrorists were killed as Islamabad responded to what it called aggression from Kabul.
In the aftermath, both sides traded accusations. Afghanistan claimed its attack was a direct response to Pakistani airstrikes—strikes that Islamabad neither confirmed nor denied. Instead, Pakistan doubled down on its longstanding demand: Kabul must stop harboring the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militants who use Afghan territory to orchestrate attacks inside Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban, for their part, flatly denied these allegations, insisting they were not providing safe haven to any such groups.
The border skirmishes quickly spiraled into a series of confrontations along the 2,600-kilometer frontier. Strikes by Pakistan targeted Gul Bahadur group camps in Afghanistan, and the violence threatened to ignite a broader conflict. Recognizing the danger, both countries agreed to a ceasefire on October 15, brokered by mediators from Turkey and Qatar. This fragile truce paved the way for talks in Doha, followed by a second round in Istanbul starting October 25. Yet optimism was in short supply. As Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced on October 29, the talks “failed to bring about any workable solution.”
Efforts to salvage the dialogue continued, with Turkey and Qatar stepping in to mediate. A joint statement on October 31 signaled hope, stating that “further modalities of the implementation will be discussed and decided” in a principal-level meeting scheduled for November 6 in Istanbul. But that hope was short-lived. On November 7, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif declared that negotiations addressing cross-border terrorism were “over” and had entered an “indefinite phase.” In a retaliatory move, the Afghan Taliban suspended trade ties with Pakistan, deepening the economic pain for traders on both sides of the closed border.
Amid these setbacks, Iran and Russia called for continued dialogue, urging both Islamabad and Kabul to resolve their disputes through peaceful means. On November 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he had spoken with his Pakistani and Afghan counterparts, expressing Tehran’s readiness to offer “any kind of assistance” to help bridge the divide. That same day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that senior Turkish officials would visit Islamabad the following week to discuss the escalating tensions.
The diplomatic flurry culminated on November 16, when Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi publicly welcomed Iran’s offer of mediation. “Iran is a brotherly, friendly country. Pakistan is always in favour of finding peaceful resolutions of issues through dialogue and diplomacy, and we appreciate the offer of mediation of our brotherly country, Iran,” Andrabi told Dawn. He insisted that “mediations are always welcome,” adding, “Generally, mediations are resented by a country or a side which is on a weak legal or political case. Pakistan’s case on this issue, on terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, is very strong. So, obviously, we will not shy away from mediation.”
Regional powers have been quick to seize the initiative. Turkey, which hosted the latest rounds of talks, announced that both parties had agreed to establish a “monitoring and verification mechanism” to maintain peace—though the details remain elusive. Negotiators are now expected to hammer out the specifics of this mechanism and other issues related to the ceasefire’s implementation. But mistrust lingers. Both Islamabad and Kabul accuse each other of acting in bad faith, warning that the truce could collapse at any moment if the other side fails to honor its commitments.
Beneath the surface, deeper strategic anxieties are at play. Pakistani officials have described Kabul as acting like a proxy for India, which has forged closer ties with the Afghan Taliban since it returned to power in 2021. In a television interview on October 28, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif accused the Taliban government of “treacherous and barbaric patronisation of Indian-sponsored terrorism.” He went further, alleging that India had “penetrated” the Taliban leadership and was using Kabul to wage a low-intensity war against Pakistan. The Taliban leadership, however, has rejected these accusations outright, as Millennium Post reports, insisting that India has no role in the crisis and denying any responsibility for TTP attacks on Pakistani soil.
India’s growing engagement with Afghanistan has only fueled Islamabad’s suspicions. After a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck northern Afghanistan on November 3, India was among the first to offer aid, shipping 15 tonnes of food to quake-hit provinces. India has also reopened its embassy in Kabul and stepped up diplomatic contacts with the Taliban, actions that have not gone unnoticed in Pakistan. According to columnist Abid Hussain, writing for Al Jazeera, Islamabad’s longstanding doctrine of “strategic depth” is rooted in a desire to counter India’s influence in Afghanistan—a goal that seems increasingly elusive as the Taliban’s stance towards India grows more conciliatory.
Analysts like Amina Khan of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad argue that Pakistan had expected the Taliban not to create “space or vacuum” for India, an expectation that has not been met. The recent visit by Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India, and the strong statements issued by the Afghan government, have only heightened Pakistani apprehensions.
Meanwhile, the human toll of the conflict continues to mount. Pakistan’s security forces and civilian population have suffered casualties in terror attacks linked to Afghanistan, with authorities warning of more violence if a durable solution is not found. The border remains closed as of mid-November 2025, inflicting significant economic losses on traders and deepening the humanitarian crisis in the border regions.
Despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, the prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain. As Asadullah Nadeem, a political analyst, put it, the current “deal” could be the final one—either to confirm or reject the fragile framework outlined in previous talks. The Amir of Qatar and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar have both expressed hope that the two neighbors can overcome their differences, but the road to lasting peace is strewn with obstacles old and new.
As the world watches, the fate of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship hinges on whether regional mediation—now with Iran at the table—can overcome decades of mistrust, shifting alliances, and the ever-present threat of violence along the Durand Line. For now, the border remains a flashpoint, and the future of peace in the region rests in the hands of diplomats, mediators, and, perhaps, a little bit of luck.
