On October 18, 2025, the world quietly witnessed the expiration of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). There were no ceremonies, no grand speeches, and no international fanfare to mark the moment. Yet, as the decade-old agreement slipped into history, it left behind a landscape of unresolved tensions, fresh sanctions, and shifting alliances that now define the new era of Iran’s global relations.
According to Haaretz, the JCPOA’s expiration ended a chapter that had once been filled with hope for both Iran and the international community. The deal, signed in 2015, was intended to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. But as the agreement reached its sunset, neither side could claim their dreams had been realized. Instead, Iran entered a period marked by renewed sanctions and diplomatic stalemate, with the geopolitical spotlight trained squarely on its evolving partnerships, especially with Russia and China.
Just days after the agreement’s expiration, a flurry of diplomatic activity underscored the new reality. On October 20, Esmail Baqaei, a senior Iranian official, highlighted the strength of Iran’s ties with Russia, stating, “We have several important foundational agreements. We have a comprehensive joint agreement that covers extensive cooperation, including in the defense field. We believe that Resolution 2231 has expired, and cooperation between Iran and Russia will continue seriously.” His remarks, reported by Iranian media, reflected a growing confidence in Tehran’s ability to forge its own path, even as Western powers sought to reinstate international sanctions.
Resolution 2231, which had endorsed the JCPOA, was now at the center of a heated legal and diplomatic dispute. Baqaei argued that the resolution should be considered terminated, especially after Russia and China—both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—opposed efforts by the UK, Germany, and France to trigger the so-called “snapback” mechanism. This mechanism, initiated by the three European countries in a letter to the Security Council on August 28, aimed to restore a broad set of U.N. sanctions on Tehran, including arms embargoes, diplomatic travel restrictions, asset freezes, and extensive limitations on Iran’s nuclear program.
But as The Washington Times reported on October 19, the Western push for sanctions was met with skepticism from many analysts. While European powers and the United States celebrated the formal reinstatement of U.N. penalties, experts warned that without a coordinated, multilateral enforcement campaign, Iran could find ways to evade the restrictions. “I think the bigger impact is gonna be on the proliferation side, potentially making it harder for Iran to get bits and pieces of nuclear kit,” said Richard Nephew, program director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But you don’t have a big U.N. infrastructure the way you did in the past, so that makes it hard to imagine you’re gonna have dramatic effects now, unless the U.S., Europeans and others are really willing to step up enforcement.”
Indeed, the international community appeared divided. Baqaei noted that “two permanent members of the UN Security Council opposed this move. This means the Council was effectively unable to reach a decision, which in turn led the majority of countries worldwide to support Iran’s position.” He further stated that Russia and China had made their opposition to the snapback mechanism clear and that their stance was not temporary, but ongoing. In a joint letter to the U.N. Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council, Iran, Russia, and China formally opposed the reimposition of sanctions, insisting that Resolution 2231 should be considered terminated. Baqaei argued, “The three European countries have caused legal confusion, but the majority of the international community disagrees with their approach. We expect that this opposition will also be reflected in practice.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s economic resilience was on display. Despite the sanctions, the regime’s oil exports had surged. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran exported around 587 million barrels of oil in 2024—an 11% increase from the previous year—earning approximately $43 billion in revenue. China remained a crucial market, importing about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day from Iran. This trade, as The Washington Times pointed out, provided billions of dollars that helped fund Tehran’s military projects and foreign operations. The United States, under its “maximum pressure” policy, responded in October 2025 by imposing new sanctions on Chinese refineries, shadow fleets, and unregistered ships that carried Iranian oil, aiming to disrupt these lucrative flows.
Yet, the sanctions’ effectiveness was questioned. Analysts cited by The Washington Times warned that as long as major players like China continued to buy Iranian oil, the regime would have the resources to maintain its defense posture and even invest in new capabilities. There were also concerns about how this revenue could be used. Some experts cautioned that Iran might channel oil profits into purchasing weapons and defense technologies from Russia, especially since the two countries had just deepened their strategic partnership.
On October 2, 2025, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced that a comprehensive strategic treaty between Moscow and Tehran, signed in January at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, had officially entered into force. The agreement, as detailed by Russian and Iranian officials, covers military and educational cooperation as well as the joint development of nuclear technology—an area specifically targeted by the new U.N. sanctions.
This growing alignment between Iran and Russia has alarmed Western capitals. While the U.N. sanctions include strict arms restrictions, some analysts believe Russia, due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and sense of impunity, may choose to disregard these limitations. The prospect of a more robust Iran-Russia defense partnership, potentially underwritten by Chinese oil revenues, has added a new layer of complexity to the region’s security calculus.
At the same time, Iran faces its own internal challenges. Its uranium enrichment facilities were destroyed during a twelve-day war with the United States and Israel in June 2025. Tehran has vowed to rebuild them, but the reimposed sanctions could make access to specialized equipment and materials far more difficult. The United States and Israel remain adamant that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, and both have warned that any attempt to restore the nuclear program could trigger further military action.
As the world adjusts to the post-JCPOA era, one thing is clear: the diplomatic and economic chessboard has grown even more complicated. With Western powers, Russia, China, and Iran all pursuing their own interests—sometimes in direct opposition—the path forward is anything but certain. The expiration of the nuclear deal may not have been marked by fanfare, but its consequences are already rippling across the globe.
