On October 18, 2025, Iran officially declared the end of all restrictions under the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s fraught relationship with world powers and the global non-proliferation regime. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – painstakingly negotiated in Vienna and enshrined by United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 – had, for a decade, limited Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Now, as the deal’s “termination day” arrives, Iran’s nuclear program stands unbound, and the world faces a new era of uncertainty and diplomatic tension.
The JCPOA’s expiration may have been a long time coming, but its official end is no less significant. In a statement released by Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Tehran insisted that “all of the provisions [of the 2015 deal], including the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme and the related mechanisms are considered terminated.” Yet, the same statement reaffirmed Iran’s “unwavering commitment to diplomacy while resolutely upholding the legitimate rights and lawful interests of the Iranian nation in all fields, including the inalienable right to the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy.” According to AFP, Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that their program is for peaceful purposes and that the country “never sought to weaponize their nuclear capabilities.”
The deal’s demise was not a sudden event but the result of years of unraveling. The first major blow came in 2018, when then-U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, calling it a “disaster” and reinstating harsh sanctions. Trump argued that the JCPOA failed to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions and ignored Tehran’s ballistic missile development. The AP reported that, following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran gradually stepped up its nuclear activities, enriching uranium well beyond the deal’s limits—up to 60 percent purity, edging close to weapons-grade levels.
Efforts to revive the JCPOA repeatedly stumbled. European powers – the UK, France, and Germany – attempted to broker new terms, but negotiations faltered, especially after a dramatic escalation in June 2025. During a 12-day conflict, Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the U.S. reportedly firing 30 Tomahawk missiles from submarines. The attacks, according to Al Jazeera, killed more than 1,000 Iranians, including hundreds of civilians, and caused billions of dollars in damage. In the aftermath, Iran’s parliament passed a law suspending all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), prompting UN inspectors to leave the country. The IAEA later described its inability to verify Iran’s nuclear stockpile as “a matter of serious concern.”
As the deal’s expiration approached, the so-called “snapback” mechanism was triggered by the European signatories. This provision, built into the JCPOA, allowed for the rapid and automatic reimposition of all UN sanctions if Iran was found to be in significant violation. In August 2025, the UK, Germany, and France invoked this clause, effectively nullifying the agreement’s benefits for Iran and, in the words of International Crisis Group analyst Ali Vaez, “officially burying” the deal. “Termination day is relatively meaningless due to snapback,” Arms Control Association expert Kelsey Davenport told AFP, highlighting how the reimposed sanctions had already rendered the JCPOA defunct before its formal expiration.
Russia, meanwhile, took a decidedly different stance. Days after a senior Iranian official met President Vladimir Putin, Moscow announced that all remaining UN restrictions on Iran would formally expire on October 18. Russia criticized the UK, France, and Germany for attempting to revive sanctions and pledged to continue bilateral cooperation with Tehran. This strong support from Moscow underscores the complex triangular dynamic now shaping the region, as Washington, Moscow, and Tehran jockey for influence amid growing geopolitical tensions.
The fallout from the deal’s collapse is being felt across the Middle East and beyond. Western nations condemned Iran’s move to end restrictions, accusing Tehran of undermining global security and reviving fears of a nuclear standoff. The expiration has also cast a long shadow over regional stability, especially as U.S.-Iran tensions remain high and Israel continues to view Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat.
Despite the saber-rattling, some leaders have signaled a preference for renewed diplomacy. On October 13, 2025, during a speech to Israel’s parliament, President Trump remarked, “It would be great if we made a peace deal with them. Wouldn’t it be nice?” He added, “I think they want to.” Trump’s comments, reported by The Guardian, suggest that, even as he continues to criticize the JCPOA, he sees potential for a new diplomatic opening. Tehran, for its part, has repeatedly stated it remains open to talks with the United States, provided Washington offers guarantees against military action during any potential negotiations.
Yet, the prospects for diplomacy remain grim. Iranian Foreign Ministry officials have expressed deep skepticism about negotiating with European powers, especially after they triggered the snapback mechanism. Top diplomat Abbas Araghchi recently said, “We do not see any reason to negotiate” with the Europeans under these circumstances. The deadlock is further complicated by the broader context of regional instability, with the June war and subsequent sanctions deepening mistrust on all sides.
Analysts warn that the longer the stalemate continues, the more difficult it will be to reach a new agreement—and the greater the risk of renewed conflict. “The more time elapsed, the more challenging it will be to negotiate a deal down the road and the greater the risk of conflict re-erupting,” Davenport cautioned. Nevertheless, European leaders have vowed to keep seeking “a comprehensive, durable and verifiable agreement,” with the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas insisting that “sanctions must not be the end of diplomacy.”
As Iran marks the official end of the JCPOA with a statement at the UN in New York, the world is left to reckon with the consequences. The decade-old agreement, once hailed as a triumph of multilateral diplomacy, now stands as a cautionary tale of how quickly international consensus can unravel. The challenge ahead will be finding a path back to the negotiating table before the window for peaceful resolution closes for good.
