The ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup 2025 has reached a fever pitch as the league stage barrels toward its dramatic conclusion. With Australia, England, and South Africa having already punched their tickets to the semi-finals, the spotlight now falls on India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka—each locked in a tense, high-stakes scramble for the last coveted spot in the knockout rounds. As the dust settles on earlier matches, all three teams find themselves level on four points, but their fortunes couldn’t be more different as they approach their final group fixtures.
The equation is simple for India. Sitting in fourth place with four points and a net run rate (NRR) of +0.526, Harmanpreet Kaur’s side holds their destiny in their own hands. Two matches remain for India: a showdown against the White Ferns of New Zealand at the DY Patil Stadium in Navi Mumbai on Thursday, followed by a clash with Bangladesh. If India manage to win both, they’ll surge into the semi-finals, no calculators needed. But even a single win—specifically against New Zealand—would be enough to see them through, regardless of the outcome against Bangladesh. As the ICC’s official rules state, “the team with the greatest number of wins in the league matches will be placed in the higher position,” giving India the advantage if they reach three victories.
Yet, the path is far from straightforward. Should India falter against New Zealand but rebound to beat Bangladesh, their hopes will hinge on England defeating New Zealand in the final group match—a scenario that would see India sneak through on the back of a superior NRR or by virtue of more wins. “A win against New Zealand will confirm India’s semi-final berth while a defeat would leave their qualification hopes hanging on other results,” as reported by multiple sources. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Harmanpreet and her squad, who started the tournament with convincing wins over Sri Lanka and Bangladesh but have since been tripped up by narrow losses to the tournament’s giants: South Africa, Australia, and England.
New Zealand, meanwhile, find themselves in a precarious position. Also on four points but with a less flattering NRR of -0.245, the White Ferns must win both of their remaining games—against India and then world No. 2 England—to guarantee a semi-final berth. If they manage only a win against India but stumble against England, New Zealand will have to rely on a series of favorable results elsewhere: Bangladesh must defeat India, or Sri Lanka must falter against Pakistan, and the Kiwis’ NRR must eclipse that of their rivals. It’s a tightrope walk, to say the least, and the permutations are enough to make any fan’s head spin.
Sri Lanka’s odds are the longest of the trio, but mathematically, they’re still alive. With four points and a daunting NRR of -1.035, their only route to the semi-finals is to thrash Pakistan in their final group match—by a considerable margin, no less—to boost their NRR. That’s only the first hurdle. Sri Lanka also need India to lose both of their remaining matches and New Zealand to fall against England. If all these dominoes fall, NRR becomes the deciding factor, and Sri Lanka must hope their own resounding win is enough to leapfrog New Zealand. As one report aptly put it, “if Sri Lanka manages to navigate this complex set of requirements, it would be celebrated as one of the most memorable comebacks in World Cup history.”
The tournament’s tie-breakers are crystal clear: teams with equal points are separated first by the number of wins, then by NRR, then by head-to-head results, and finally by original league seedings if all else fails. This means that a win for India over New Zealand would give them the crucial head-to-head edge and a third victory, essentially locking the door on their rivals’ hopes.
Historically, the head-to-head record between India and New Zealand in women’s ODIs slightly favors the White Ferns, who have claimed 34 wins to India’s 22 in 57 encounters. However, India did win the most recent meeting—a rain-affected warm-up match in Bengaluru last month—by four wickets, offering a psychological boost ahead of Thursday’s pivotal clash.
Individual performances have also shaped the narrative of this World Cup. India’s Deepti Sharma leads all bowlers with 13 wickets at an average of 20, while New Zealand’s captain Sophie Devine tops the run-scoring charts between the two teams with 260 runs at a remarkable average of 87. These two will be central figures as their sides battle for survival under the hot Navi Mumbai sun.
Fans eager to catch the action can tune in at 3:00 PM IST on October 23, 2025, with live coverage available on the JioHotstar app and Star Sports Network in India. The squads are stacked with talent: India’s lineup is captained by Harmanpreet Kaur and features the likes of Smriti Mandhana and Renuka Singh Thakur, while New Zealand brings a formidable roster led by Sophie Devine, supported by Suzie Bates, Amelia Kerr, and Lea Tahuhu.
For the cricketing purist, the drama extends beyond just runs and wickets. The NRR conundrum looms large, especially for Sri Lanka, whose margin of victory against Pakistan must be overwhelming to flip their negative standing. As explained in the tournament’s regulations, “if there are teams with equal points and equal wins in the league matches, then in such case the teams will be ordered according to their net run rate (NRR) in the league matches.” The smallest swing in fortunes could rewrite the semi-final lineup in an instant.
Australia, England, and South Africa, meanwhile, can sit back and watch the drama unfold, having already secured their places in the knockout rounds. South Africa leads the table with 10 points from six matches, followed closely by Australia and England with nine points each. Their consistency has been the story of the group stage, but the focus now shifts to the dogfight for fourth.
As Thursday’s blockbuster between India and New Zealand approaches, the anticipation is palpable. Will India seize the moment and clinch a semi-final spot on home soil? Can New Zealand upset the odds and keep their campaign alive? Or will Sri Lanka pull off a miracle for the ages? Whatever the outcome, one thing’s for sure: the Women’s World Cup 2025 group stage is delivering edge-of-the-seat entertainment, and with so much on the line, every ball will matter.
With the semi-final picture still unresolved, fans around the world can only wait and watch as these cricketing powerhouses battle for a place in the final four. The next few days promise to be a festival of nerves, skill, and unrelenting ambition.
