In a week marked by tense diplomatic exchanges and shifting energy alliances, India has found itself at the center of a global oil tug-of-war. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on October 15, 2025, that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would stop buying Russian oil—a move that could reshape not only India’s energy landscape, but also the broader geopolitical balance surrounding the war in Ukraine.
Trump, speaking from the White House, did not mince words: “There will be no oil. He’s not buying oil,” he said, referring to Modi’s supposed pledge to end Russian oil imports. He clarified, however, that the change would not take effect immediately, but “within a short period of time.” According to AP and Newsweek, Trump has long pressed New Delhi to halt its purchases of discounted Russian crude, which have made India the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China.
India’s response to Trump’s declaration was, perhaps unsurprisingly, more measured. On October 16, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal avoided confirming or denying Trump’s claim. “Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions,” Jaiswal said, as reported by Reuters and DW. He added that India’s “consistent priority was to safeguard the interests of Indian consumers in a volatile energy environment.”
India’s reluctance to explicitly echo Trump’s announcement is understandable. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India has ramped up its purchases of discounted Russian oil, becoming Moscow’s top crude oil customer. This strategy has drawn criticism from Western partners, but India has defended its actions as necessary for national energy security and consumer protection.
Still, the pressure from Washington has been relentless. In August 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, then doubled it to 50%, explicitly linking the penalties to India’s continued Russian oil purchases. Trump has argued that these purchases help fund Russia’s war machine, and he’s made no secret of his frustration with the slow progress toward a peace deal in Ukraine. “It’s a war that [Putin] should have won in one week, and he’s now going into his fourth year,” Trump told reporters, as noted by Newsweek.
Against this backdrop, India appears to be hedging its bets by seeking to expand energy ties with the United States. Trade Secretary Rajesh Agarwal told reporters that India currently buys around $12–$13 billion worth of American crude oil and natural gas annually, and there’s room to nearly double that amount if prices remain competitive. “We have indicated very positively that India as a country would like to diversify its portfolio as far as energy imports are concerned. That’s the best strategy for a big buyer like India,” Agarwal explained, according to AP.
A team of Indian officials is currently in the U.S. to discuss a bilateral trade agreement that includes energy cooperation. Modi and Trump had set a target earlier this year to finalize the first tranche of a trade deal by autumn, but negotiations stalled after five rounds—again, due to U.S. displeasure over India’s Russian oil imports.
Meanwhile, the impact of these diplomatic maneuvers is already being felt in energy markets. Brent crude futures rose by 54 cents (0.87%) to $62.45 a barrel on October 16, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 56 cents (0.96%) to $58.83. Analysts cited the prospect of India reducing Russian oil imports as a key factor supporting prices. “This is a positive development for the crude oil price as it would remove a big buyer (India) of Russian oil,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters.
Some Indian refiners are reportedly preparing to gradually cut back on Russian oil, though the process is expected to be slow and cautious. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Indian state-owned refineries imported less Russian crude in September 2025, reaching their lowest levels since May 2022. This signals a possible shift, but there’s little to suggest an immediate, wholesale halt.
Russia, for its part, remains outwardly confident. Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov said, “The Indian government is having in mind the national interest of this country in the first place, and our cooperation in energy is very much in tune with those interests.” Russian officials have also stressed that they expect their energy partnership with India to continue, even as Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks disrupt Russian oil production and exports.
India’s balancing act is further complicated by domestic political pressures. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi accused Modi of caving to Trump’s demands, claiming on X (formerly Twitter) that “PM Modi is frightened of Trump” and “allows Trump to decide and announce that India will not buy Russian oil.” Such criticism underscores the delicate tightrope Modi must walk—between appeasing Western allies and defending India’s sovereign energy policy.
The international context is just as fraught. Trump has also pressured European countries and Japan to halt Russian energy imports. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japan’s finance minister that Washington expects Tokyo to stop buying Russian energy, even though Japan is not a major importer of Russian crude. Meanwhile, the UK has announced new sanctions targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as several refineries and tankers involved in the so-called "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil.
All of this comes as the White House tries to ratchet up pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on October 17, with discussions ongoing about supplying Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump has also signaled his intention to persuade China—currently the largest buyer of Russian oil—to follow India’s lead, though Beijing has pushed back, insisting its trade with Russia is “legal and legitimate.”
For now, India’s official line remains one of strategic ambiguity. “Where the U.S. is concerned, we have for many years sought to expand our energy procurement. This has steadily progressed in the last decade. The current Administration has shown interest in deepening energy cooperation with India. Discussions are ongoing,” said Indian government spokesperson Shri Randhir Jaiswal.
As markets, governments, and consumers watch closely, the world’s energy chessboard is being redrawn. Whether India’s pivot away from Russian oil is a genuine policy shift or simply a diplomatic feint remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: in the volatile intersection of global politics and energy, every move counts.
