The ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 has reached a fever pitch, with the race for the final semi-final spot wide open and drama swirling around every match. India, the co-hosts and pre-tournament favorites, have found themselves teetering on the edge after a string of heartbreaking defeats. With Australia, South Africa, and England having already punched their tickets to the knockouts, the focus now shifts to a tense four-way battle between India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan for that last coveted berth.
India’s campaign, which began with high hopes and the roar of home crowds, has hit a rough patch. After five matches, Harmanpreet Kaur’s side sits fourth on the points table with two wins and three losses, tallying four points and a net run rate (NRR) of +0.526. The recent loss to England in Indore, where the team fell agonizingly short by just four runs while chasing 289, encapsulated the heartbreak. Smriti Mandhana dazzled with a commanding 88, Harmanpreet chipped in 70, and Deepti Sharma added 50, but India couldn’t finish the job in the final overs. England’s Heather Knight, celebrating her 300th international appearance, anchored her side’s innings with a superb 109 off 91 balls, while Amy Jones contributed a crucial 56. Despite a late surge from India’s bowlers, England’s Linsey Smith and Sophie Ecclestone held their nerve to seal the win.
“It’s a bad feeling when you have put so much hard work in but the last 5-6 overs didn’t go according to the plan,” Harmanpreet Kaur admitted after the match, visibly emotional. “Smriti’s wicket was the turning point for us. It’s a heartbreaking moment. Credit to England. They didn’t lose hope, they kept bowling and getting wickets.” According to ESPN, England’s victory not only secured their own semi-final place but also left India clinging to the fourth spot, with New Zealand breathing down their necks.
With two crucial matches remaining—against New Zealand on October 23 and Bangladesh on October 26—India’s fate is firmly in their own hands, but the margin for error is razor-thin. A win over New Zealand would give India a major advantage, almost guaranteeing a semi-final berth regardless of the Bangladesh result. If India can string together two wins, they’ll finish with eight points and sail into the knockouts. But if they stumble against New Zealand, the equation becomes far more complicated. In that scenario, India would need to beat Bangladesh convincingly and hope that England dispatches New Zealand in their final group match. Net run rate, that ever-cruel tiebreaker, could yet prove decisive.
The permutations don’t end there. If India beats New Zealand but loses to Bangladesh, and New Zealand then turns around and beats England, it could come down to which side boasts the better NRR. Weather could also play an unexpected role—a washout against New Zealand wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for India, provided New Zealand loses to England and neither Sri Lanka nor Pakistan climbs past six points. In the unlikely event that both of India’s remaining games are washed out, they could still sneak through if New Zealand falters and other results fall in their favor.
New Zealand, meanwhile, faces a do-or-die clash against India. The White Ferns have one win from five matches, four points, and an NRR of -0.245. A loss to India would end their campaign on the spot. But if they can topple India and then beat England, they’ll leapfrog into the semi-finals. Should they beat India but lose to England, they’ll need Bangladesh to defeat Sri Lanka and lose to India, setting up a potential NRR showdown. Even weather could lend a hand—if their match against India is washed out and they beat England, they could still be in the hunt, depending on other outcomes.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan are clinging to faint hopes. Sri Lanka, buoyed by a dramatic seven-run win over Bangladesh, has four points from six matches but a daunting NRR of -1.035. They must beat Pakistan in their final game and hope India loses both remaining matches, while also needing England to see off New Zealand. Overturning the NRR deficit would require a massive win. Pakistan, still searching for their first win but aided by two washouts, must win their last two games against South Africa and Sri Lanka by huge margins—and hope India loses out—to force a four-way tie on six points, where NRR would again be the ultimate decider.
Bangladesh, with two points and an NRR of -0.676, is mathematically alive but needs to win both remaining matches (against India and Sri Lanka) by significant margins and hope other results go their way. It’s a long shot, but in a World Cup full of twists, nothing can be ruled out.
The tension is palpable as the group stage winds down. The Indian team, led by the experienced Harmanpreet Kaur and buoyed by the batting flair of Smriti Mandhana and the all-around skills of Deepti Sharma, knows what’s at stake. The home advantage could prove crucial, with passionate fans expected to fill the stands in Navi Mumbai for the upcoming showdowns. Yet, pressure and expectation can be a double-edged sword—just ask any cricketer who’s played in front of a home crowd with the nation’s hopes on their shoulders.
What’s clear is that every ball, every run, and every wicket will matter from here on out. With the semi-final door still ajar, India’s campaign is set for a dramatic climax. Can they shake off the disappointment of recent defeats and deliver under pressure? Will New Zealand, Sri Lanka, or Pakistan pull off a stunning comeback? Or will rain and net run rate calculations throw another twist into an already unpredictable World Cup?
As the league stage barrels toward its conclusion, one thing is certain: the battle for the last semi-final spot is far from over. Fans around the world are holding their breath, knowing that the next few days could redefine the fortunes of four proud cricketing nations. The action resumes on Thursday, and all eyes will be on India as they fight to keep their World Cup dream alive.
