India’s exporters have faced a tumultuous year, with new trade barriers, shifting global demand, and an urgent need to find alternative markets. The impact of the United States’ hefty tariffs—imposed in August 2025—reverberated across multiple sectors, especially hitting India’s seafood industry and broader merchandise exports. Yet, amid these challenges, the country’s exporters and policymakers have scrambled to adapt, opening up new opportunities in Europe, Russia, and Australia, while keeping a close eye on shifting trends in the US market.
The numbers speak volumes. According to the Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s exports to the US rebounded to $6.3 billion in October 2025, a 14.5% increase from September and the first monthly growth since May. This uptick came despite the 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in August, which included a 25% penalty tied directly to India’s ongoing crude oil imports from Russia. However, the October figure was still 8.6% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, highlighting the lingering effects of the tariffs and broader global headwinds.
Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, commented on the mixed signals from the US market: “Although October 2025 exports of $6.3 billion are 8.6% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, the month-on-month rise from September is a welcome improvement.” He also noted, “Despite the October rebound, India’s shipments to the US have dropped nearly 28.4% between May and October, erasing more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value.”
Product-wise data for October is still pending, but sectors exempt from the new tariffs—such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals—may have fared better, though this remains speculative for now. The overall picture, however, is one of strain: India’s aggregate exports declined 11.8% year-on-year in October, and among the country’s top 20 export markets, only five showed growth. Spain and China led the pack, with exports to Spain jumping by 43.4% (driven by petroleum products) and to China by 42.3%. Modest gains were also seen in Hong Kong, Brazil, and Belgium, but the majority of key destinations—fifteen out of twenty—saw significant drops.
The US (-8.58%) and UAE (-10.17%) posted moderate declines in Indian imports, while Singapore (-54.85%), Australia (-52.42%), Italy (-27.66%), the UK (-27.16%), and the Netherlands (-22.75%) registered steep reductions. Additional drops were noted across Malaysia, Korea, Germany, France, Bangladesh, Nepal, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia, painting a picture of widespread external challenges for Indian exporters.
Meanwhile, India’s import bill soared in October, reaching $73.2 billion—a 16.5% increase. The surge was driven by a startling rise in gold and silver purchases: gold imports shot up 188.2% to $14.7 billion, and silver imports grew by a staggering 528.7% to $2.7 billion. This influx of precious metals stands in sharp contrast to the 29.5% decline in gems and jewellery exports, suggesting that much of the imported gold and silver is being consumed domestically rather than re-exported in finished products.
Nowhere has the pain of US tariffs been felt more acutely than in India’s seafood sector, particularly in Andhra Pradesh, which produces nearly 80% of the country’s shrimp exports. In August 2025, the US imposed tariffs on Indian seafood that reached as high as 59.72%, a move largely attributed to India’s energy dealings with Russia. The tariffs dealt a heavy blow to farmers and exporters, threatening livelihoods and destabilizing prices in a sector worth $7.4 billion annually.
But Indian officials have not stood idle. Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, speaking at the CII Partnership Summit in Visakhapatnam in November 2025, outlined a proactive strategy to open new markets and reduce dependence on the US. “We have ironed out problems with the European Union,” Goyal announced, referring to the EU’s nine-year ban on Indian seafood over quality concerns. “Now, 102 fisheries have received approval to export to the EU,” he said, signaling renewed confidence in India’s food safety and quality systems. The EU, long a premium market for shrimp and fish, is expected to provide a much-needed earnings boost for Indian farmers and exporters.
Russia has also emerged as a crucial alternative. Final approvals are underway for 25 Indian fisheries to export to Russia, with the expectation of more to follow. This expansion not only helps offset losses in the American market but also deepens India’s geopolitical and energy ties with Moscow, reinforcing a diversified trade strategy that seeks resilience in the face of global volatility.
Australia, too, reopened its doors in November 2025 after an eight-year hiatus, allowing unpeeled shrimp imports from Andhra Pradesh for the first time since white spot virus concerns led to a ban. This move is expected to enhance India’s reputation in premium seafood markets and create new opportunities for processed seafood exports.
These trade breakthroughs come at a critical juncture. With the government aiming to raise seafood exports to $12-14 billion by fiscal year 2026, the reopening of the EU, Russian, and Australian markets could drive a 20-30% jump in sector exports, according to industry estimates. For Andhra Pradesh, this diversification is more than a business strategy—it’s a lifeline for millions of jobs and a stabilizer for prices in local markets.
The broader lesson from 2025’s export rollercoaster is clear: India’s ability to adapt and diversify is being put to the test. The government’s swift action in resolving trade disputes and seeking new partners demonstrates a pragmatic approach to global commerce, one that balances economic necessity with geopolitical realities. As the world’s trading patterns shift and new alliances form, India’s exporters are learning to navigate choppy waters—sometimes quite literally—with resilience and ingenuity.
While the scars of the US tariffs are still visible, the country’s exporters and policymakers are looking ahead, determined to turn adversity into opportunity. The next few months will reveal whether these fresh market openings can fully compensate for the losses in the US and whether India’s ambitious export targets can be met. For now, the message is one of cautious optimism and relentless adaptation, as India’s exporters chart a new course in an ever-changing global landscape.
